2026 Market Outlook Following 2025 Precious Metals Rally and Equity Underperformance
Indian equity markets remain in a state of cautious optimism as they navigate the final days of February 2026. After a volatile 2025, the current landscape is defined by range-bound trading, selective sectoral participation, and a structural shift toward consumption-led recovery.
The Nifty 50 is currently hovering near the **25,500** mark, closing recently at **25,556.30** with a modest gain of **0.29%**. The Sensex follows a similar pattern, trading around **82,418.78**. Market participants are keeping a close watch on the **25,800** resistance level, while strong support is established at **25,300**.
Gold and silver continue to display significant momentum following their spectacular performance in 2025. 24K gold has reached fresh highs, trading at approximately **₹16,205 per gram** (or **₹1,62,050 per 10 grams**). Silver, despite a recent cooling period, remains elevated near **₹2,85,000 per kg**, reflecting its status as a preferred hedge against geopolitical risks.
Economic indicators suggest a resilient domestic environment. India’s GDP is projected to grow by **8.1%** in the October-December quarter, supported by a new base year series. While global growth remains moderate at **3.3%**, India’s annual growth for FY26 is estimated at **7.4%**, positioning it as a global outperformer.
The Reserve Bank of India has maintained a neutral stance, keeping the repo rate unchanged at **5.25%**. This pause is intended to balance growth with an inflation target that is projected to stay near **2.1%** for the full year, though a slight uptick to **3.2%** is expected in the final quarter of the fiscal year.
Large-cap stocks continue to provide stability, especially within the banking and IT sectors. Banking stocks are benefiting from stable credit growth, while the Nifty IT index recently gained **0.89%** as global tech spending concerns eased.
Mid-caps and small-caps are entering a selective recovery phase. Following sharp corrections in 2025—where some segments fell over **20%**—valuations have become more attractive. Analysts expect these segments to benefit from improving rural consumption and recent tax rationalizations that have boosted disposable income.
Geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in U.S. bond yields remain the primary external risks. However, the shift from a slowdown to a recovery phase is being anchored by robust domestic institutional flows, which frequently offset foreign sell-offs.
The market outlook for the remainder of 2026 remains focused on quality and earnings growth. Investors are increasingly prioritizing companies with strong balance sheets as the "growth at any price" era gives way to a more disciplined valuation framework.