Energy Market Brief | February 19, 2026 The global energy landscape is currently defined by a tug-of-war between heightened geopolitical risk and a persistent underlying supply surplus. While immediate supply shocks have provided technical support for prices, long-term indicators suggest a cooling trend as production capacity remains robust across both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ nations. Crude Oil Performance Benchmark prices have experienced significant volatility throughout early **2026**. Brent crude is currently trading around **$70** per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is positioned near **$63**. Recent price action was driven by a **$10** per barrel surge in January, sparked by escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and severe winter weather that disrupted North American operations. However, prices have retreated from those highs as markets digest a projected global surplus of approximately **3.2 million** barrels per day for the remainder of the year. Supply and Production Dynamics World oil supply is forecast to rise by **2.4 million** barrels per day in **2026**, reaching a total of **108.6 million** barrels per day. This growth is roughly split between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers. * **OPEC+ Strategy:** Member nations recently reaffirmed a pause in production increments through March **2026** to manage seasonal demand shifts. The group maintains a significant effective spare capacity of over **4 million** barrels per day. * **Non-OPEC Growth:** Increased output from the "Americas quintet"—the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina—continues to provide a buffer against potential disruptions. * **Inventory Builds:** Global inventories rose by **37 million** barrels in December, with Chinese crude stocks and "oil on water" accounting for a substantial portion of the increase. Natural Gas and LNG Expansion Natural gas is emerging as a central pillar of energy infrastructure growth this year. The industry is witnessing the most active period for gas-fired generation development in over a decade. North American LNG export capacity is entering a major growth phase, on track to climb toward **30 billion** cubic feet per day by **2027**. This expansion is solidifying the U.S. Gulf Coast as the global anchor of gas supply, reshuffling global trade flows as European and Asian demand remains sustained. Key Risks and Indicators Geopolitical uncertainty remains the primary "war premium" driver. Analysts estimate that a total removal of Iranian crude from the market—roughly **3.3 million** barrels per day—could push Brent toward **$91** by late **2026**. Economic indicators in the U.S. show unexpected resilience, with capital goods orders rising **0.6%** in December and housing starts hitting a five-month high. This domestic strength is supporting energy demand even as central banks shift toward more accommodative monetary policies. Outlook for 2026 The consensus forecast points to a gradual decline in oil prices as production continues to outpace demand. The EIA projects Brent crude will average **$58** per barrel across **2026**. Investment is increasingly focused on operational efficiency and "behind-the-meter" projects. Energy companies are prioritizing capital discipline and shareholder returns, with large-cap firms expected to return up to **78%** of free cash flow to investors this year.