Brent crude prices have reclaimed the **$70** threshold, currently trading near **$70.52** per barrel as of February 19, 2026. This surge marks a significant shift in market sentiment, driven by a "war premium" that has seen prices jump over **4%** in recent sessions. The primary catalyst is the intensifying friction between the U.S. and Iran. While diplomatic talks continue in Geneva, markets are on edge following reports of a potential U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Strategic analysts have raised the probability of a substantial supply disruption to **30%**, citing risks of a conflict that could last for weeks rather than days. A major focus remains the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly **20%** of the world’s daily oil consumption passes. Iran’s recent military drills in the area and U.S. maritime advisories for ships to avoid Iranian waters have heightened fears of a closure. Any sustained blockage would severely impact global flows, particularly to Asian markets. This geopolitical volatility is currently outweighing structural oversupply concerns. Global inventories grew by **477 million barrels** in 2025, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) still forecasts a supply increase of **2.4 million barrels per day** for 2026. Despite this looming surplus, the immediate threat to Middle Eastern production is keeping a firm floor under prices. OPEC+ is also playing a decisive role. Eight key member nations have paused production increases through the first quarter of 2026 to manage the emerging global glut. However, signals suggest the group may resume output hikes starting in April to meet peak summer demand, which could introduce new downward pressure if tensions ease. In the West, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to add a layer of underlying risk. While talks are ongoing, approximately **140 million barrels** of Russian crude remain at sea, and recent drone strikes on Black Sea infrastructure have kept traders cautious about regional stability. Market participants are now watching for a decisive break above resistance levels. While some agencies like the EIA project an average price of **$58** for the full year 2026, the current geopolitical climate suggests that as long as the threat of a strike looms, Brent is likely to maintain its premium above the **$70** mark.