**Market Brief: Union Budget 2026 Special Session** **Sunday Trading Alert** Budget 2026 arrives today, **Sunday, February 1**, amid a tense trading environment. Indian exchanges are open for a rare special session as the Finance Minister presents the Union Budget. Sentiment remains fragile following a bruising January, where the Nifty 50 surrendered **3.5%**, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. **Current Levels & Trends** Markets enter the session on a cautious note. The Nifty 50 last closed at **25,320** (down **0.39%**), while the Sensex sits at **82,270**. Volatility has cooled slightly—India VIX is near **13.63**—but participation is thin. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have sustained their selling pressure, weighing heavily on liquidity. **Geopolitical Headwinds & Trade Shifts** Global cues are dictating the mood. The return of aggressive US tariffs under President Trump has rattled export-oriented sectors, particularly IT and Metals. However, a structural floor is provided by the historic **EU-India Free Trade Agreement** signed on January 27, 2026, which is expected to counterbalance US protectionism in the long run. **Sector Watch: Defense & Infra** While fiscal space for major tax relief is tight, expectations are pinned on a **10–15%** hike in capital expenditure. Defense stocks like BEL and MTAR Technologies have rallied up to **24%** in anticipation. Infrastructure remains a key theme, alongside potential structural reforms in the power sector and IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code). Conversely, Metals and IT remain weak spots due to global bond yield spikes and tariff anxieties. **Outlook** Analysts widely expect a "non-event" budget focused on fiscal consolidation rather than populist fireworks. The Nifty is currently range-bound between **24,900 and 25,500**. Unless the Finance Minister delivers a significant surprise on capital gains tax or consumption boosts, the immediate market reaction is likely to remain muted and stock-specific. ... [Dr Shamika Ravi on geopolitical impact](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQR2e0ceHC0) ... This video provides timely context on how domestic consumption and recent geopolitical shifts are insulating the Indian economy against global volatility. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0