🇺🇸 US Economic Briefing: December 2025 --- Inflation Holds Steady as Core Price Growth Slows The annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate remained stable at **2.7%** in December 2025, matching the rate seen in November and meeting market expectations. Shelter was the largest factor in the monthly increase. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, registered an annual rise of **2.6%**. This marks the lowest level since March 2021 and was slightly below the anticipated 2.7%. On a monthly basis, core prices increased by **0.2%**, also undershooting the consensus forecast of 0.3%. Food costs continued to rise, up **0.7%** month-over-month, while the energy index saw a modest **0.3%** increase. The persistence of inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's **2%** target. --- Manufacturing Sector Flashes Mixed Signals The US manufacturing sector showed divergence between key surveys in December. The **S&P Global Manufacturing PMI** registered **51.8**, a slight dip from 52.2 in November, but sustaining the five-month expansionary run (above 50). This index indicated solid employment growth. In contrast, the **ISM Manufacturing PMI** was **47.9%**, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from November's 48.2%. This marks the **10th consecutive month of contraction** for the ISM measure and the lowest reading of 2025. New Orders continued to contract, creating the widest gap between production and orders since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. --- Labor Market Shows Further Easing Job Openings remained largely unchanged in November at **7.1 million**, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This figure is down significantly by **885,000** over the year. The job openings rate was **4.3%**. Over-the-month declines in vacancies were notable in Accommodation and Food Services, Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities. Job openings, hires, and total separations all recorded little to no change from the prior month.