Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty tests key support levels amid rising volatility
Market Overview
Indian equity markets concluded a challenging week on February 13, 2026, as benchmark indices faced sharp selling pressure. The Nifty 50 slumped by **336.10 points** or **1.30%** to close at **25,471.10**. Similarly, the Sensex dropped **1,048.16 points** to end the session at **82,626.76**.
The decline was largely driven by a massive sell-off in IT and FMCG heavyweights. High-profile stocks like Infosys, TCS, and HUL faced significant pressure, with HUL reporting a **30%** year-on-year decline in net profit for the December quarter. The IT sector was further rattled by rapid advancements in automation tools in the US, leading to concerns over traditional outsourcing models.
Technical Indicators and Volatility
Market sentiment turned jittery as the India VIX, a key gauge of expected volatility, surged by **13.36%** to reach **13.29**. While the index remains below the high-stress threshold of **20**, the sudden spike indicates a rise in investor fear following a period of relative calm.
The Nifty 50 is currently testing crucial support levels near the **25,400** mark. Although the broader medium-term uptrend is technically intact, the failure to sustain levels above **25,900** earlier in the week confirms a corrective phase. Traders noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in the mid-**50s**, suggesting neutral momentum with a slight downward bias.
Institutional Activity
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were aggressive sellers in the final session of the week, offloading equities worth **₹7,395.41 crore**. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) attempted to cushion the fall by purchasing shares worth **₹5,553.96 crore**, but this was insufficient to offset the global exit.
The divergence in institutional flows highlights a cautious stance from global funds, likely influenced by stronger-than-expected US employment data. This has increased the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates for longer, with the likelihood of a June rate hold rising to **41%**.
Economic Outlook
On the domestic front, the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series with a 2024 base year recorded retail inflation at **2.75%** for January 2026. This remains well within the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of **2% to 6%** for the 12th consecutive month.
Despite benign inflation, the RBI maintained the repo rate at **5.25%** in its recent meeting, signaling a "neutral" but cautious stance. The central bank has revised the GDP growth outlook to **7%** for the upcoming quarters, reflecting confidence in India's structural resilience despite temporary market turbulence.
Investors are currently prioritizing a stock-specific approach. Defensive positioning is recommended until the Nifty demonstrates a decisive close above the **25,800** resistance level. Fresh long positions are generally being deferred as the market waits for clearer global cues and the stabilization of institutional selling.