Dipan Mehta Bullish on NBFC Sector Citing Improved Balance Sheets
Market activity on **February 26, 2026**, reflects a landscape of cautious optimism and sharp sectoral rotation. The Nifty 50 is holding steady above the **25,500** mark, while the Sensex remains flat near **82,400**. This stability follows a period of heightened volatility, with the India VIX cooling to **13.49**, down from recent highs of **14.36**.
Financials and Pharma Strength
Diversified Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) are emerging as a preferred segment as balance sheets show significant improvement. A widespread cleanup of microfinance and MSME unsecured portfolios has strengthened the sector’s foundation. Preferred focus remains on multi-product lenders over niche players, with industry leaders like Bajaj Finance and L&T Finance maintaining high visibility.
The pharmaceutical sector continues to attract defensive interest, with expectations of **7–9%** revenue growth for the fiscal year **2026**. Domestic market demand remains the primary driver, projected to expand by **8–10%**, while exports to Europe are forecasted to grow by **10–12%**. Investors are increasingly overweight on the sector, particularly monitoring the growing GLP-1 opportunity and a potential turnaround in CDMO players.
Real Estate and Solar Evolution
Caution is advised in the real estate space, where high supply and ongoing valuation adjustments are prompting a more selective approach. Large developers with strong annuity assets and recurring rental income are favored, with companies like DLF and Prestige positioned as key benchmarks.
The solar industry is navigating short-term challenges following a preliminary **126%** duty on Indian solar imports to the US. Despite this, the long-term outlook remains positive, with the domestic market valued at **$14.89 billion** in **2026**. Industry sentiment suggests that these tariffs will not significantly derail the broader manufacturing push, which is targeting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of **19.05%** through **2031**.
Structural Shifts in Metals and Tobacco
The metal sector, having recently served as a major market outperformer, is entering a cyclical slowdown. Fresh entries are being approached with caution, as current price levels may not sustain historical outperformance.
Tobacco stocks, notably ITC, are facing a structural shock following the implementation of the **Central Excise Amendment Bill 2025**. Effective **February 1, 2026**, sharp excise duty hikes of **₹2,050 to ₹8,500** per **1,000** sticks have been levied on top of the existing **40%** GST. This regulatory shift has pushed ITC toward a **52-week low** near **₹302**, as analysts predict a necessary **33%** price hike to offset the tax impact. Growth projections for the segment remain subdued, with a focus on potential volume protection over immediate profitability.