**MARKET BRIEF: Copper Crunch & The AI-Energy Nexus (2025-26)** **Headline: Economic Survey Warns of Structural Copper Deficits Amid AI & Green Energy Surge** The government's newly released **Economic Survey 2025-26** has flagged a critical shortage of copper as a "strategic chokepoint" for the global economy. The report underscores that the dual pressures of rapid AI data center expansion and the green energy transition are severely straining global supplies. **Price Action & Market Trends** Copper prices have shattered historical records in early **2026**, with trading levels breaching the **$13,000–$14,500 per tonne** mark on major exchanges. This represents a surge of over **40%** from previous years, driven by a disconnect between explosive demand and stagnant mine output. Analysts note that this is not a typical cyclical rally but a structural repricing. The metal is now trading with significant volatility, reacting sharply to geopolitical trade barriers and inventory tightness. **The Demand Shock: AI & Green Energy** The Survey highlights the "staggering" scale of material requirements for modern infrastructure: * **AI Data Centers:** Hyperscale facilities are consuming massive copper volumes for power distribution and cooling, with demand from this sector projected to grow exponentially. * **Renewables:** A single **1 GW** wind turbine requires approximately **2,866 tons** of copper. * **Logistics:** Transporting the ore required for just one such turbine would fill over **1,194 truckloads** (at 400-ton capacity), illustrating the immense logistical burden of extraction. **Supply Side: Outages & Deficits** Global supply chains are fracturing under the weight of disruptions. The Survey points to significant mine outages in key producing regions, including **Indonesia, Congo, and Chile**. Declining ore grades are compounding the issue. Miners now need to process significantly more earth to extract the same amount of metal, with yields at many major operations dropping below **0.6%**. Consequently, global markets are facing a refined copper deficit projected to reach **300,000 to 600,000 tonnes** in 2026. **India’s Strategic Vulnerability** For India, the stakes are particularly high. The country currently imports over **90%** of its copper concentrate requirements. With domestic demand growing at **9%** annually—driven by construction, consumer goods, and infrastructure—India is heavily exposed to global price shocks. The Economic Survey warns that rising input costs could bleed into broader inflation, affecting sectors from electronics to real estate. The government views copper not just as an industrial input but as a critical component of national economic resilience. **Outlook: The New "Oil"** Copper has effectively transitioned from a base metal to a critical security asset. The Survey indicates that control over copper supply chains will increasingly define industrial competitiveness and energy security. With new mine projects taking over **15 years** to come online, the supply-demand gap is unlikely to close in the near term. Markets should brace for sustained elevated prices and heightened volatility as nations compete for limited resources to fuel their digital and green ambitions. *** **Next Step:** I can provide a deep dive into specific copper mining stocks or ETFs that might benefit from these structural deficits if you need targeted investment data.