**Bond Market Brief: Pre-Budget FY27 Outlook** **Fiscal Consolidation & Deficit Targets** Markets are pricing in a credible fiscal glide path as the government targets a fiscal deficit of **4.2% of GDP** for FY27, down from the revised **4.4%** in FY26. This consolidation strategy aligns with the medium-term goal of reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, reinforcing investor confidence in macro stability. **Borrowing Dynamics & Supply** Gross market borrowing for FY27 is estimated between **₹16.0 trillion and ₹17.5 trillion**, with net borrowing likely stabilizing around **₹11.6–11.8 trillion**. While headline gross numbers remain elevated due to redemption pressures, the stable net issuance suggests the supply shock may be manageable. State-level borrowings, however, add a layer of caution, keeping total public sector supply high. **Yield Trends & Market Sentiment** The benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield is currently trading near **6.70%**, reflecting recent pre-budget volatility and supply jitters. Despite short-term pressure, the consensus leans toward cautious optimism. Investors anticipate that a fiscally prudent budget—devoid of excessive populist spending—will cap yield spikes, keeping the 10-year range-bound post-announcement. **Key Monitoring Points** * **Capex Growth:** Expected moderation to **~10%** growth (vs. aggressive hikes in prior years) to balance fiscal math. * **Demand Anchors:** Continued support from long-term investors (insurance, pension funds) is critical to absorbing the heavy supply. * **Global Cues:** Currency volatility and global crude prices remain external risk factors influencing domestic yields.