Geopolitical Risks and Supply Levels Impact Indian Bond Market Performance
Indian government bond yields remained elevated as the market navigated a heavy supply of new debt and simmering geopolitical tensions. The benchmark **10-year** 2035 bond yield hovered near **6.71%**, following a significant **4 basis point** jump in the previous session—its sharpest single-day rise in two weeks.
Domestic sentiment is currently weighed down by a massive influx of government paper. State governments are scheduled to raise **₹445.5 billion** ($4.91 billion) this week, marking the largest weekly debt sale of the season. This is closely followed by the central government's planned auction of **₹320 billion** in dated securities, including the **10-year** benchmark.
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While easing crude oil prices provided a momentary reprieve, broader risks persist. Brent crude recently fell **1%** toward **$71 per barrel**, yet prices remain near six-month peaks. This volatility, coupled with fresh U.S. trade levies and uncertainties surrounding Iran, has kept risk appetite for sovereign debt restricted.
Monetary policy remains a balancing factor. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently maintained the repo rate at **5.25%** and kept its stance "neutral." While the central bank signals flexibility for future rate cuts, it has modestly revised its inflation outlook. Headline CPI is projected at **3.2%** for the current quarter, with expectations of it rising toward **4.0%** in the first half of the next fiscal year.
Foreign interest provides a modest cushion. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) infused approximately **₹317.42 billion** into Indian capital markets this month, with debt instruments attracting steady interest. Despite these inflows, the sheer volume of upcoming auctions continues to cap any significant rally in bond prices.