**MARKET BRIEF: FEBRUARY 25, 2026** Global financial markets are navigating a landscape of high-stakes technology deals and shifting central bank expectations. Today's sessions reflect a rebound in investor sentiment as fresh industrial developments offset recent volatility. **EQUITY PERFORMANCE** Wall Street has recovered a significant portion of its recent losses. The **S&P 500** climbed **52.32 points**, or **0.8%**, reaching **6,890.07**. This rally was spearheaded by a resurgence in the semiconductor sector. The **Dow Jones Industrial Average** added **370.44 points**, gaining **0.8%** to close at **49,174.50**. Meanwhile, the **Nasdaq Composite** outperformed with a **1%** jump, rising **236.41 points** to **22,863.68**. Optimism was largely fueled by a multi-year deal between Advanced Micro Devices and Meta Platforms. This partnership, focused on powering next-generation digital infrastructure, provided a clear catalyst for growth and helped stabilize markets that had been shaken by sector-specific sell-offs earlier in the week. **MONETARY POLICY & RATES** The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of **3.50% to 3.75%**. Current data shows a cooling in price pressures, with January consumer inflation slowing to **2.4%** year-over-year, slightly below the anticipated **2.5%**. Market expectations for rate cuts are intensifying. The Fed Funds Futures Market now indicates a **43% chance** of three or more quarter-point reductions in **2026**, a sharp rise from the **25.6%** probability recorded just one month ago. Internal shifts are also on the horizon as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term concludes in **May 2026**. Investors are closely monitoring potential leadership changes that could redefine the central bank's strategy regarding its **$6.5 trillion** balance sheet and the timeline for further easing. **COMMODITIES & ENERGY** The commodities sector is experiencing a divergence between precious metals and energy. Gold remains a primary safe-haven asset, holding near **$5,020 per ounce**. Projections for the metal remain bullish, with some institutional forecasts targeting **$4,500 to $4,700** by mid-year. In contrast, the energy market is facing downward pressure. **WTI crude oil** is hovering around **$63 per barrel**, while **Brent crude** is projected to average approximately **$62.23** throughout the year. This bearish trend in oil is driven by a projected supply surplus in **2026** and weakening global demand growth. While industrial metals like copper and aluminum remain supported by long-term electrification trends, the immediate energy outlook is defined by ample global inventories and OPEC+ production dynamics. **GLOBAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS** The U.S. economy shows signs of moderating growth, with recent business activity reaching a ten-month low in February. However, consumer confidence has improved more than expected, providing a buffer against stagnation. In China, a "two-speed" economy is emerging. While industrial production remains strong, domestic retail sales saw a slight contraction of **0.12%** in January. Regional growth targets for the Chinese economy are being adjusted to the **4.5% to 5%** range. In Europe, business optimism is rising, particularly in Germany. Despite threats of new trade tariffs, early signs of stabilization are appearing in the automotive and capital goods sectors. Focus remains on upcoming fourth-quarter GDP data for Germany and France to confirm if lower interest rates are successfully boosting household spending.