Market Brief: Bullion and Energy Outlook **Precious Metals Performance** Gold is trading at historic highs, holding steady near **$5,136** per ounce as of February 23, 2026. The metal reached a record weekly close above **$5,100** on Friday, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and a disappointing **1.4%** annualized GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter. Silver has experienced significant volatility this month. After peaking at **₹3.50 lakh** per kg on February 1, it corrected sharply before rebounding by over **5%** today to settle near **₹2,74,900** per kg. Domestic 24-carat gold prices in India are currently averaging **₹1,59,420** per 10 grams. **Drivers of Bullion Demand** Central banks remain a pillar of support, with projected net purchases of **755 tonnes** for 2026. While this is lower than the **1,000+ tonne** peaks of recent years, it remains nearly double the pre-2022 average. Policy uncertainty is a primary catalyst. Investors are hedging against trade tensions following a recent Supreme Court ruling on tariff frameworks and the introduction of new **15%** levies. Market analysts project gold could test **$5,450** if current momentum holds. **Crude Oil and Geopolitical Risk** International benchmarks are holding near six-month highs. Brent crude is trading around **$70.59** per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sits at **$65.68**. Prices currently carry a geopolitical risk premium of approximately **$4 to $6** per barrel. This is largely due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with markets pricing in the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles **20%** of global oil supply. **Supply Fundamentals and OPEC+** The market is characterized by a "supply-demand mismatch." Despite the risk of conflict, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global surplus of **3.2 million** barrels per day for 2026. OPEC+ has raised output targets by **2.9 million** barrels per day since last April. The group is expected to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 to prevent a price collapse. However, a full removal of Iranian exports—estimated at **3.3 million** barrels per day—could flip the market into a deficit and push Brent toward **$91** by year-end. **Key Monitoring Points** Markets are currently focused on the third round of nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. Any breakdown in diplomacy or a shift toward military strikes could immediately expand the risk premium. Conversely, signs of a diplomatic breakthrough or a continued build in OECD inventories may cap the upside for energy prices through the second quarter.