Precise movements in the bullion market on February 19, 2026, reflect a complex tug-of-war between easing geopolitical risks and a split outlook on US monetary policy. Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for April delivery are trading with a slight downward bias, hovering near **₹1,54,350 per 10 grams**. This follows a period of consolidation after the metal retreated from its February peak of **₹1,60,730**. In the international spot market, gold is currently testing the **$4,930** per ounce level. Silver is experiencing more intense volatility, with retail prices in major hubs like Delhi and Mumbai holding at **₹2,55,000 per kg**. This represents a sharp correction of approximately **27%** from the **₹3,50,000** peak seen earlier this month. On the MCX, silver futures are under pressure, trading near **₹2,42,520 per kg**, as the market reacts to a significant demand-supply mismatch and heavy profit-booking. A primary driver for the current price softening is the progress in diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. Recent negotiations in Geneva have led to a preliminary understanding of "guiding principles" regarding nuclear disputes. This potential de-escalation has reduced the immediate need for safe-haven assets, which typically surge during times of active conflict. Simultaneously, the US Federal Reserve remains a source of uncertainty. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting reveal a divided committee. While some officials favor rate cuts later in 2026 to support the labor market, others are signaling a "higher-for-longer" approach to ensure inflation reaches the **2%** target. This division has bolstered the US Dollar Index to approximately **97.25**, making gold more expensive for global buyers. Despite the short-term pullback, domestic demand remains structurally sound. Gold imports into India rose in January, and ETF holdings have shown resilience, edging higher even as prices dipped. Analysts suggest that the current consolidation near **₹1,53,000** for gold and **₹2,40,000** for silver may serve as a floor for future movement. Technical indicators highlight that the gold-silver ratio has expanded to historic highs above **95:1**. This suggests that silver is currently undervalued relative to gold, though momentum remains weak. Traders are advised to monitor the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for clearer direction on the next phase of the market cycle.