The global copper market in February 2026 is navigating a period of high volatility, characterized by a tug-of-war between record-high stockpiles and a long-term structural supply deficit. While prices reached historic peaks earlier this year, the market is currently seeing a tactical correction. Market Prices and Performance As of February 19, 2026, the **LME Copper Cash-Settlement price** stands at **$12,626 per tonne**. This follows a record-shattering surge in late January, when prices peaked above **$14,500**. The current levels reflect a **13% decline** from those highs, driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar and a temporary lull in activity during the Chinese Lunar New Year. Despite the recent dip, the broader trend for 2026 remains elevated compared to 2025 averages, which hovered around **$9,300 to $11,000**. Inventory and Supply Dynamics Global exchange inventories have hit a 20-year high, surpassing **1 million tonnes** for the first time in two decades. This build-up is largely concentrated in the U.S. and China. In the U.S., stocks have grown fivefold year-over-year to over **590,000 tonnes**, partly due to "Project Vault," a **$12 billion** strategic raw-material reserve program. Conversely, mine supply remains under extreme pressure. Production at major sites like Escondida and Collahuasi has seen year-over-year declines of **16.5%** and **12.1%** respectively, hampered by declining ore grades and water constraints. The International Copper Study Group forecasts a refined copper deficit of **150,000 tonnes** for the remainder of 2026. Demand Drivers and Trends The energy transition and digital infrastructure remain the primary engines for copper consumption. * **Grid Investment**: China’s State Grid has committed **4 trillion yuan** ($574 billion) for 2026–2030, a **40% increase** over previous plans. * **AI and Data Centers**: Advanced electrical architectures for AI hardware are significantly more copper-intensive than traditional computing facilities. * **Electric Vehicles**: Demand continues to scale as EVs require **3 to 4 times** more copper than internal combustion engines. Outlook and Key Events Market sentiment is currently split. Analysts expect prices to find strong support at the **$12,125** level, with potential peaks of **$13,000** in the second quarter of 2026 as Chinese buying resumes post-holiday. The industry is also bracing for significant regulatory shifts. A key watchpoint is the potential U.S. recommendation for a **25% tariff** on refined copper imports, expected by mid-2026. Upcoming industry gatherings, including the **PDAC** in Toronto (March 1–3) and the **SMM Copper Industry Conference** in China (April 8–10), will be critical for assessing how mining executives and smelters negotiate the increasingly difficult treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) currently under pressure.