**Market Brief: Fixed Income & Fiscal Outlook (Feb 2026)** **Union Budget 2026-27** is set for presentation on **February 1, 2026**, acting as a critical pivot for India’s bond markets. The fiscal roadmap will directly dictate borrowing pressure, yield curve trajectory, and liquidity dynamics for the coming fiscal year. **Fiscal Consolidation & Borrowing Targets** * **Deficit Projections:** Analysts peg the **FY27 fiscal deficit at 4.3% of GDP**, down marginally from the **4.4%** estimate for FY26. * **Borrowing Volume:** Gross market borrowing is projected to rise **15–16%** to approximately **₹16.9 lakh crore** in FY27, driven largely by higher redemptions. * **Risks:** While the government aims for consolidation, expenditure pressures on welfare and infrastructure could push the actual deficit closer to **4.6%**, potentially straining bond supply. **Bond Market Metrics (As of Jan 2026)** * **10-Year G-Sec Yields:** Currently trading in the **6.60% – 6.70%** range. Yields softened significantly throughout 2025, aided by **125 bps** in cumulative rate cuts. * **Near-Term Outlook:** Yields are expected to remain range-bound between **6.65% and 6.90%**, with upward pressure limited by central bank support and benign inflation (CPI forecast at **4.2%** for FY26). **Monetary Policy & Corporate Spreads** * **RBI Stance:** Markets have priced in a final **25 bps rate cut** in February 2026, potentially bringing the repo rate to **5.00%**. * **Corporate Bonds:** Spreads remain compressed. Yields on **AAA-rated corporate papers** fell by **~13 bps** in late 2025, outperforming G-Secs. This tight spread environment continues to favor issuers while offering stable, albeit lower, yields for platform-based investors. **Summary:** The overarching strategy remains focused on fiscal discipline despite rising redemption pressures. With the rate-cut cycle nearing its end and yields anchoring near **6.6%**, the environment favors stability for long-term debt investors.