Global Market Brief: February 2026 The global economy is currently navigating a path of divergent growth and shifting trade landscapes. Global output is projected to expand by **2.7%** in 2026, a slight cooling from the **2.8%** seen last year. While major economies are largely avoiding recession, growth remains below the pre-pandemic average of **3.2%**. Equity Markets and Sector Performance Equity markets have entered 2026 with a "winner-takes-all" dynamic, particularly in the United States. The S&P 500 is buoyed by an AI supercycle, with earnings growth in the technology sector forecasted between **13% and 15%**. However, concentration risks remain high as capital flows predominantly into market leaders. In India, the BSE Sensex recently reached levels around **83,734**, marking a resilient start to the year. Strength is concentrated in metals, banking, and FMCG sectors. The Nifty 50 is trading near **25,819**, supported by robust domestic flows. Conversely, IT services have faced pressure as the market transitions from AI experimentation to demanding measurable impacts. Commodities and Energy Energy markets are seeing a downward trend in prices as global production begins to outpace demand. Brent crude is currently trading near **$67.50** per barrel, with forecasts suggesting an average of **$58** for the full year. European natural gas has stabilized below **€30/MWh**, easing inflationary pressure on industrial sectors. Precious metals continue to serve as a hedge against geopolitical volatility. Gold prices have seen significant interest, recently retreating slightly from peaks but maintaining a strong position as investors monitor central bank signals. The World Bank anticipates an overall **7%** drop in commodity prices through 2026, marking a multi-year decline. Monetary Policy and Inflation Central banks are shifting from the aggressive easing cycles of 2025 to a "simultaneous hold" strategy. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is expected to target a policy rate of **3%** by year-end, while the European Central Bank maintains rates around **2%**. Inflation is cooling globally but remains "sticky" in certain regions. India's inflation rate was recorded at **2.75%** for January 2026, allowing the RBI to maintain a relatively accommodative stance with interest rates at **5.25%**. Trade and Technology Trends Global trade is undergoing a significant remapping due to new tariff structures. U.S. trade policies have shifted competitive advantages, making imports like Italian rice **12%** cheaper while South African wine has become **17%** more expensive relative to competitors. The technology sector has moved into the "Year of Truth for AI." Enterprises are shifting focus from experimental pilots to "Agentic AI" and "Cloud 3.0" infrastructures. Investment is moving toward hybrid architectures that balance cloud elasticity with on-premises data sovereignty. This shift is expected to drive a **17%** increase in solar energy generation to meet the rising power demands of new data centers.