Jefferies Projects FY27 Earnings Rebound Following FY26 Weakness
Indian equity markets are navigating a phase of healthy consolidation as 2026 begins. Benchmarks have shown resilience with the Nifty 50 trading near **25,826** and the Sensex holding around **83,941**. While foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn approximately **$34 billion** over the last 16 months, domestic mutual fund inflows continue to provide a critical structural buffer for the market.
Mahesh Nandurkar of Jefferies observes that the Union Budget has evolved into a secondary event for markets. The 2026 Budget focused on long-term infrastructure and tax simplification rather than immediate market-moving incentives. Public capital expenditure is projected to rise to **₹12.2 lakh crore** for the upcoming fiscal year, a significant increase from the previous **₹11.2 lakh crore**. This shift underscores a move toward fundamental growth rather than fiscal announcements.
A major direct tax overhaul via the Income Tax Act of 2025 is set to take effect on April 1, 2026. While tax slabs remain largely unchanged—ranging from **0%** for income up to **₹4 lakh** to **30%** for income above **₹24 lakh**—the law has been condensed from over **700** sections to **536**. This simplification aims to reduce litigation and improve the ease of doing business across the corporate landscape.
Earnings growth is the primary catalyst expected to drive future returns. After a relatively tepid period, corporate India is entering an 11-quarter high for revenue momentum, with growth forecasts reaching **14%** year-on-year. For the 2027 fiscal year, earnings are projected to accelerate into the **12% to 15%** range. Key sectors leading this rebound include Auto, with expected Ebitda growth exceeding **20%**, and Oil Marketing Companies, some of which are showing jumps as high as **130%**.
The monetary environment is also stabilizing. The Reserve Bank of India has reduced repo rates by **125 basis points** over the current cycle, bringing the interest rate to approximately **5.25%**. With inflation cooling toward **1.33%**, there is increasing room for further policy easing. These lower borrowing costs are expected to support credit demand and improve the net interest margins for the banking sector.
Diversification remains a central theme for the modern Indian investor. While domestic prospects are strong, the need for global exposure is critical to mitigate local volatility. Current market valuations have corrected to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately **20x**, down from a peak of **25x**, making the entry point more compelling for long-term participants.
Strategies are now shifting toward bottom-up stock selection. High-growth themes like Electronics Manufacturing Services and Quick Commerce are gaining weight in model portfolios. Meanwhile, sectors such as Metals and Cement are seeing renewed interest due to rising domestic demand and new trade agreements. This balanced approach between domestic consumption and global diversification is expected to define the investment landscape for the remainder of the year.
[Mahesh Nandurkar Market Insights](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRsxv6gSxnA)
This video provides direct analysis from Jefferies on why specific sectors are currently favored and how the shift to a bottom-up market is impacting investor returns.
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