Jefferies Sees Low Budget Expectations, Lists Defence Capex Among 8 Key Measures
Jefferies Outlook on FY27 Union Budget
**Executive Summary**
Jefferies anticipates a stable FY27 Union Budget with limited surprises, characterized by a continued commitment to fiscal consolidation. The government is expected to balance fiscal discipline with strategic spending in key growth areas.
**Key Strategic Focus Areas**
* **Defense-Led Capex:** Capital expenditure is expected to remain robust, primarily driven by the defense sector.
* **Targeted Consumption:** Support measures will likely be specific and targeted rather than broad-based.
**Fiscal Scenarios & Market Implications**
* **Base Case (4.2% Deficit):** The baseline projection places the fiscal deficit at approximately **4.2% of GDP**, aligning with consolidation goals.
* **Growth Push Scenario (4.4% Deficit):** A deviation to a higher **4.4% deficit** would likely signal an aggressive push for growth.
* *Equities:* Likely to view this positively as a growth catalyst.
* *Bond Markets:* Likely to face pressure, resulting in higher yields.