Morgan Stanley Forecasts India Outperformance vs. EMs Driven by Cyclical Earnings Despite Valuation Risks
** India Strategy & Outlook**
**Source:** Morgan Stanley (Jonathan Garner)
**Core Thesis**
India is positioned to enter a cyclical earnings upswing, with projections indicating potential outperformance relative to Emerging Market (EM) peers over the next two years.
**Key Drivers & Catalysts**
* **Macro Tailwinds:** Growth momentum is expected to be sustained by policy easing, a revival in capital expenditure (capex), and robust earnings trajectories.
* **Sentiment Shift:** These structural drivers are anticipated to trigger a reversal in investor sentiment, offsetting current headwinds regarding elevated valuations and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows.
**Sector Implications**
Primary beneficiaries of the projected upswing include:
* **Financials**
* **Industrials**
* **Consumption**