Nifty Market Outlook: Weekly Trend and Impact of US Supreme Court Ruling
The Nifty 50 concluded the trading week ending February 20, 2026, on a resilient note, finishing at **25,571.25** with a daily gain of **116.90 points** or **0.46%**. Despite a volatile start to the week, the index reclaimed stability as buying interest returned in the final sessions.
Market participants are currently digesting a landmark US Supreme Court ruling issued on Friday. The court rejected President Trump’s authority to impose certain sudden global tariffs. In response, a new **10%** temporary import surcharge was announced, set to take effect on February 24. This development has introduced a layer of caution as traders assess the long-term impact on global trade and Indian exports.
Sectoral performance remained mixed but largely positive. The Power sector emerged as a leader, surging over **2%**, while the Metals index also showed strength, gaining roughly **1.3%**. Financial services and FMCG counters provided additional support. In contrast, the IT sector faced headwinds, declining nearly **1%** as investors shifted toward domestic-focused themes.
Technical indicators suggest the Nifty is navigating a critical consolidation phase. Immediate support is firmly established in the **25,300 – 25,400** zone. On the upside, the index faces significant resistance at **25,800**, with a major psychological barrier at **26,000**. Analysts note that a sustained move above **25,600** is required to shift the short-term bias from neutral to decisively bullish.
Institutional activity showed a notable divergence. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained strong pillars of support, with month-to-date inflows exceeding **₹11,400 crore**. Conversely, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a cautious stance, recording net sales of approximately **₹1,076 crore** so far in February.
Volatility remains a key factor as the market enters the final week of the February F&O contract expiry. The India VIX is hovering around **13.33**, indicating moderate but present anxiety. Global cues, particularly fluctuating crude oil prices and the fallout from the US trade policy shifts, will likely dictate the opening momentum for the coming Monday.
The broader market breadth turned positive during the final session, with over **2,200** stocks advancing on the BSE against **1,900** declines. While large-cap blue chips led the recovery, mid-cap and small-cap indices showed relative underperformance, dropping **1.22%** and **3.21%** respectively, highlighting a "flight to quality" among retail and institutional participants.