Energy Market Brief: February 19, 2026 Crude oil markets are navigating a volatile session as significant geopolitical escalations in the Middle East collide with shifting inventory data. Prices have moderated slightly following a sharp rally, with traders balancing immediate supply risks against broader economic forecasts. Price Action As of today, **Brent Crude** is trading near **$70.32** per barrel, marking a steady climb from earlier February lows around **$65.97**. **West Texas Intermediate (WTI)** has mirrored this strength, currently holding around **$65.24**. This follows a volatile 24-hour period where prices surged by over **$3.00** in a single session due to heightened risk premiums. Geopolitical Flashpoints The primary driver of the recent price spike is a dramatic expansion of military posturing in the Persian Gulf. Reports indicate the **United States** has moved an armada including two aircraft carriers and over **150** military cargo planes into the region. Market participants are pricing in a roughly **90%** chance of "kinetic action" involving **Iran**. This has placed the **Strait of Hormuz**—a chokepoint for **20%** of global oil shipments—under intense scrutiny. While diplomatic talks continue, progress remains slow, and the shift from deterrence to active war footing has sent global energy markets into a tailspin. Inventory and Supply U.S. oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week, defying analyst predictions of a build. Private sector data recently indicated a headline crude draw, adding upward pressure to prices ahead of the official government report. The **Energy Information Administration (EIA)** is scheduled to release official data later today. Analysts are watching for confirmation of these tightening stocks, as total global builds in **2025** reached a staggering **477 million barrels**, providing a significant buffer that may currently be eroding. Production and Demand Outlook **OPEC+** has reaffirmed its commitment to market stability, maintaining flat production targets through the first quarter of **2026**. However, the alliance has signaled a potential output increase starting in **April** to meet anticipated summer demand. Global demand is currently forecast to grow by **1.4 million** barrels per day (bpd) in **2026**, led primarily by non-OECD economies. **India** and **China** remain the critical engines of this growth, with Indian demand surging by over **300,000 bpd** in recent monthly prints, driven by industrial and transport fuel needs. Despite the current geopolitical spike, the **IEA** and **EIA** maintain a cautious long-term outlook, citing that global supply is still on track to rise by **2.4 million bpd** this year, which could lead to a cooling of prices later in **2026**.