Market Brief: Global Oil Dynamics Crude oil benchmarks experienced a slight pullback on **Tuesday, February 24, 2026**, as market participants weighed the possibility of diplomatic de-escalation against a backdrop of tight regional supplies. **Brent crude** futures settled near **$71.13** per barrel, while **West Texas Intermediate (WTI)** fluctuated around **$65.72**. These levels represent a significant recovery from the **$55** to **$60** range seen late last year, driven by a **7.8%** price increase throughout February. Geopolitical Risk and Diplomacy The primary catalyst for recent volatility is the impending third round of nuclear negotiations between the **U.S. and Iran**, scheduled to resume in Geneva on **February 26**. Traders are pricing in a "risk premium" due to the massive U.S. military buildup in the Middle East—the largest since **2003**. While reports suggest Tehran may be open to nuclear site verifications, the threat of potential military strikes maintains a floor under current prices. Analysts estimate that any sustained disruption to the **Strait of Hormuz**, which handles **20%** of global oil trade, could rapidly push prices toward **$91** per barrel. Supply Constraints and Infrastructure Supply remains tight as **OPEC+** confirmed it will hold production steady through **March 2026**. The group is currently withholding approximately **1.65 million** barrels per day from the market to maintain stability. Ongoing disruptions in Eastern Europe continue to impact the narrative. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have led to a drop in Russian output to roughly **9.28 million** barrels per day, which is **300,000** barrels below its current target. Inventory and Demand Outlook Despite the immediate price strength, the **International Energy Agency (IEA)** recently lowered its **2026** global demand growth forecast to **850,000** barrels per day. The agency cites a seasonal dip in consumption and a broader economic slowdown. Global inventories reached a high point in early **2026**, with a reported surplus of **3.7 million** barrels per day expected for the full year. This projected oversupply has led financial institutions like **Goldman Sachs** to forecast a year-end target for Brent at **$60** per barrel, assuming no major escalation in the Middle East. Key Performance Data * **Brent Crude (Spot):** $71.13 * **WTI Crude (Spot):** $65.72 * **February Price Gain:** +7.82% * **Strait of Hormuz Daily Flow:** ~15 million barrels * **IEA 2026 Demand Target:** 104.87 million bpd