**Energy Market Brief: February 9, 2026** Global oil prices opened the week on a downward trend as diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran significantly reduced the "war premium" that has recently inflated energy costs. Brent crude futures fell **1.31%** to trade at **$67.16** per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped **1.24%** to **$62.76**. This market cooling follows a breakthrough in indirect nuclear talks mediated by Oman. While Iran remains the fifth largest producer in the OPEC+ alliance—pumping approximately **3.3 million** barrels per day—the threat of a military escalation that could shutter the Strait of Hormuz has eased. Traders had previously priced in the risk of losing nearly **20%** of the world’s daily petroleum liquids that transit through this narrow chokepoint. Despite the softening prices, geopolitical friction remains a central theme. Iran recently issued a stern warning that any regional conflict would place U.S. military bases in its crosshairs. This rhetoric keeps a baseline of volatility in the market, even as the immediate fear of supply disruption fades. In Europe, the energy landscape is tightening further due to new regulatory measures against Moscow. The European Union has officially entered a new phase of restrictions, effectively moving toward a total ban on maritime services for Russian crude exports. This shift replaces the previous price cap system with a more aggressive prohibition on insurance, shipping, and technical assistance. Brussels is specifically targeting the "shadow fleet" of aging tankers used to bypass international sanctions. Current data shows that the EU has already blacklisted over **100 vessels** and is weighing further sanctions on an additional **43 ships**. Furthermore, the price cap for Russian crude has been adjusted downward to **$44.10** per barrel to further squeeze export revenues. The OPEC+ coalition continues to prioritize market stability through production restraint. Eight core members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, confirmed they will maintain steady output levels through the end of March. This decision halts a planned unwind of voluntary cuts totaling **2.2 million** barrels per day. The group is expected to meet again on March 1 to determine if seasonal demand shifts warrant a return of these barrels to the global market. In the United States, production remains at record levels, though growth is starting to plateau. Forecasters expect domestic output to hover around **13.6 million** barrels per day throughout the year. While U.S. supply provides a buffer against Middle Eastern instability, any sustained drop in global prices below the **$60** mark may trigger a slowdown in new drilling activity later this year.