**Market Brief: Paytm (One 97 Communications) Q3 Outlook** **Date:** January 28, 2026 **Subject:** Q3 FY26 Earnings Preview & Market Context **Executive Summary** One 97 Communications is poised to report a strong **Q3 FY26**, with brokerages forecasting a sustained return to profitability. Driven by festive demand and robust merchant payments, the fintech giant is expected to maintain the turnaround momentum established earlier this fiscal year. **Financial Forecasts** Market consensus anticipates a decisive shift from loss to profit for the quarter ending December 2025. * **Revenue:** Projected to rise approximately **19–22%** year-on-year, reaching the **₹2,180–₹2,225 crore** range. Sequential growth is estimated at roughly **6%**. * **Profitability:** Analysts estimate a net profit of approximately **₹210 crore**, a sharp reversal from the massive losses recorded in the same period last year (Q3 FY25). * **Margins:** Operational efficiency continues to improve, with EBITDA margins (before ESOP) expected to expand by over **170 basis points** quarter-on-quarter. **Stock Performance & Trends** Paytm shares are currently trading near **₹1,145**, reflecting a recovery of over **45%** in the last year. However, the stock recently faced volatility, dipping nearly **10%** in late January due to concerns over the expiry of the RBI’s PIDF (Payments Infrastructure Development Fund) scheme on December 31, 2025. The discontinuation of this subsidy is a near-term headwind, though management expects revenue growth to offset the impact. **Key Drivers** * **Merchant Ecosystem:** The core payments business remains resilient, with device subscriptions (Soundbox/POS) driving steady recurring revenue. * **Financial Services:** Loan distribution is seeing a revival, aided by the festive season and stabilized partner relationships. * **Regulatory Status:** Following the major restructuring in 2025, the company has secured necessary approvals (including the Payment Aggregator license) and is operating with a cleaner regulatory slate. **Upcoming Event** The company is scheduled to release its official Q3 FY26 results on **January 29, 2026**. Markets will be watching closely to see if the actual numbers beat the optimistic street estimates.