ONGC and One Other Stock Identified as Short-term Buy Candidates with Projected Upside of up to 16%
Market Pulse: Nifty Snaps Streak Amid Global Tensions
Indian equity markets witnessed a severe reversal on **February 19, 2026**, as escalating geopolitical friction between the **US and Iran** triggered a wave of risk-off sentiment. The **Nifty 50** plummeted **365 points** or **1.41%**, settling at **25,454.35**. This sharp decline effectively wiped out the gains accumulated over a three-session rally and erased approximately **₹8 lakh crore** in investor wealth.
The benchmark **Sensex** mirrored this weakness, tumbling **1,236.11 points** to close at **82,498.14**. Market breadth was significantly skewed toward the bears, with declining stocks outnumbering gainers by a wide margin on the **BSE**.
Key Market Triggers
Geopolitical instability remains the primary headwind. Reports of a potential military escalation over the weekend, following failed nuclear discussions in **Switzerland**, sent **Brent crude** prices higher, gaining over **1%** to settle near **$71.09 per barrel**.
For an import-dependent economy like India, higher oil prices spark renewed inflation fears. Additionally, the latest **US Federal Reserve** minutes suggested a clouded outlook for interest rate cuts, adding pressure to emerging market valuations. The **India VIX**, a key volatility gauge, surged as traders rushed to hedge their portfolios.
Sectoral Performance & Outliers
Selling pressure was broad-based, hitting almost every major sectoral index. **Nifty Realty**, **Nifty Media**, and **Nifty Auto** were the worst performers, each dropping roughly **2%**. Even the usually resilient **Nifty PSU Bank** and **FMCG** sectors fell by more than **1%**.
Despite the carnage, select stocks displayed remarkable resilience:
* **ONGC**: Emerged as a standout performer, surging **3.08%** to an intraday high of **₹272.15**. The stock is currently trading above its **20-day**, **50-day**, and **200-day** moving averages, supported by a significant jump in derivative open interest.
* **Biocon**: Showed relative strength, closing higher at **₹385.30** (up **1.63%**). Technical charts indicate a potential breakout if the stock sustains levels above **₹389**.
Technical Outlook
The **Nifty 50** has breached its short-term support zone of **25,600**, which coincided with its **20-day EMA**. Analysts now eye the **25,350–25,400** range as the next critical demand level.
Failure to hold these levels could invite further selling toward **25,200**. On the upside, **25,700** now acts as immediate resistance. Traders are maintaining a cautious stance, favoring defensive plays or stocks with high dividend yields, such as **ONGC**, which currently offers a yield of **5.2%**.
Short-term strategies remain focused on breakout levels and strict adherence to stop-losses, as the market navigates a high-volatility environment driven by global news flow and crude oil fluctuations.