Pre-Market Analysis and Trading Outlook for the Current Session
Global markets are adjusting to a high-stakes legal shift in Washington after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a series of broad trade tariffs. In a 6-3 ruling, the court determined that the administration lacked the constitutional authority to impose wide-ranging levies under existing emergency powers, returning the power of taxation to Congress.
In an immediate response to the verdict, the White House announced a new temporary global import surcharge of 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This "stopgap" measure is limited to a 150-day window unless extended by a congressional vote. This pivot from a previous average tariff rate of roughly 17% down to 10% has triggered significant volatility across international trade hubs.
Asian equity markets reacted with mixed sentiment as the new week began. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index faced downward pressure, sliding 1.17% to close near the 56,792 level. Investors in Tokyo remain cautious as the reduction in U.S. tariffs is offset by the 150-day expiration risk and the potential for a more chaotic, unpredictable trade environment.
In contrast, Australia’s ASX 200 showed resilience, maintaining a position above the 9,025 mark. While the index saw some intra-day softening, it remains supported by strong half-year corporate earnings, particularly from the mining sector. The Australian market is also weighing a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which recently raised the cash rate to 3.85% to combat persistent inflation.
The Indian rupee continues to trade under stress against a strengthening U.S. dollar. The currency is currently hovering near the 90.75 to 91.00 range. Despite the Supreme Court ruling theoretically lowering the tariff burden on Indian exports from 18% to 10%, the rupee remains sensitive to broader emerging market capital outflows and global trade uncertainty.
Commodities have emerged as a primary hedge against this instability. Gold has seen a notable surge, firmly crossing the $5,100 per ounce threshold. The metal has benefited from a weakening dollar and the billions of dollars in potential tariff refunds now hanging over the U.S. Treasury, which total an estimated $264 billion from 2025 alone.
Market participants are now focusing on upcoming economic indicators to gauge the next move. Critical data points include fourth-quarter GDP figures from India and Switzerland, as well as February inflation data from major European economies. With the new 10% surcharge set to take effect on February 24, supply chains are bracing for a period of intense renegotiation and legal maneuvering.