**MARKET BRIEF: WEEK AHEAD (JAN 26–30, 2026)** **Overview** Indian equity markets face a critical, abbreviated trading week (closed **Monday, Jan 26** for Republic Day). Volatility is expected to peak as investors navigate a "trifecta" of high-impact triggers: the US Fed decision, Union Budget 2026-27, and major corporate earnings. **Current Market Status** * **Indices:** Nifty 50 closed at **25,049** (-0.95%) and Sensex at **81,538** (-0.94%) on Friday, ending a volatile week on a weak note. * **Sentiment:** Bearish pressure persists, driven by 13 consecutive sessions of FII selling and the Rupee hitting a record low of **~91.99** against the USD. * **Support Levels:** Nifty has slipped below the psychological **25,100** mark; key support is seen at **24,880**. **The Big Three Triggers** **1. US Fed Interest Rate Decision (Jan 27–28)** * The FOMC meets midweek with markets pricing in a high probability of a **rate pause** (holding at 3.5%–3.75%). * **Focus:** Investors will scan the commentary for cues on the 2026 rate-cut trajectory, especially given recent mixed US labor data. * **Impact:** A hawkish pause could trigger further FII outflows from emerging markets like India. **2. Union Budget 2026-27 (Feb 1)** * Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget on **Sunday, Feb 1**. * **Expectations:** Focus on fiscal consolidation (targeting deficit ~4.2–4.4%), sustained capex in **Infrastructure** (Roads, Railways), **Defence**, and potential consumption boosters for the rural economy. * **Sector Watch:** Infrastructure, Defence, PSU Banks, and Green Energy stocks are likely to see heightened activity pre-budget. **3. Q3 Earnings Rush** Market heavyweights scheduled to report this week will dictate sector-specific moves: * **Tuesday (Jan 27):** Asian Paints, Tata Consumer, Bajaj Finance. * **Wednesday (Jan 28):** **Larsen & Toubro (L&T)**, **Maruti Suzuki**, SBI Life. * **Thursday/Friday:** ITC, NTPC, Sun Pharma. **Key Watchouts** * **FII Flows:** Foreign investors have offloaded over **₹36,000 crore** in January alone. A reversal is critical for a sustained recovery. * **Currency:** The Rupee's trajectory near **92/$** will be closely monitored for impact on IT and Pharma sectors. * **Global Cues:** US tech earnings and crude oil prices will act as secondary drivers. **Outlook** Expect a choppy 4-day week as the market consolidates ahead of the Sunday Budget. Traders are likely to remain cautious, with aggressive positioning expected only after the Fed's commentary and Budget announcements clarify the macro path.