Realty Income Forecasts Annual FFO Below Estimates Amid Higher Costs and Slowing Demand
Realty Income issued its 2026 financial guidance this week, projecting annual adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) between **$4.38** and **$4.42** per share. The midpoint of **$4.40** falls slightly below the consensus Wall Street estimate of **$4.46**.
Management attributed the cautious outlook to slowing tenant demand and rising property management costs. These factors are compounded by a macroeconomic environment marked by interest rate uncertainty and shifting retail trends.
Operating metrics remain resilient despite the conservative forecast. The company reported a portfolio occupancy rate of **98.9%** as of late 2025. Same-store rental revenue is projected to grow between **1.0%** and **1.3%** in 2026, a slight deceleration from the **1.3%** growth seen in the prior year.
The company is significantly scaling its acquisition strategy to drive future growth. Realty Income raised its 2026 investment volume guidance to **$8.0 billion**, up from **$6.3 billion** in 2025. This expansion includes a new **$1.5 billion** joint venture with GIC and an initial **$200 million** industrial investment in Mexico.
Financial stability remains a priority, with the company maintaining **$4.1 billion** in liquidity. Recent capital activity includes an **$862.5 million** convertible note offering to fund the growing pipeline. The net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA ratio currently stands at **5.4x**.
Dividend performance continues its historical trend. The company recently declared its **668th** consecutive monthly dividend. At a current share price of approximately **$66.50**, the annualized dividend yield is approximately **4.9%**.
The stock has shown momentum in early 2026, rising roughly **10%** since the start of the year. While the 2026 guidance disappointed some analysts, the company's "offensive" investment stance suggests a focus on long-term scale and international diversification.
Market sentiment is currently balanced, with a consensus "Hold" rating from major brokerages. Analysts have set average price targets near **$63.21**, reflecting the tension between strong portfolio quality and the rising costs of managing a global footprint of over **15,600** properties.