Rupee Closes Flat Amid Reported RBI Intervention Offsetting Dollar Demand
**MARKET BRIEF: RUPEE STABILIZES AMID RBI INTERVENTION**
The Indian rupee showed resilience on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, ending the session largely unchanged. This stability was driven primarily by suspected intermittent intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The central bank’s presence in the market successfully blunted aggressive dollar bids from corporate entities and interbank participants, preventing the currency from sliding toward the psychologically significant 91.00 mark.
The rupee opened at 90.72 against the U.S. dollar and fluctuated within a narrow range, eventually settling near 90.73. Market sentiment was supported by a slight retreat in global crude oil prices, with Brent crude trading down 0.47% at $68.33 per barrel. However, a stronger greenback and continued outflows from foreign institutional investors (FII) acted as a ceiling for any significant appreciation.
**KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS**
Inflation data released this week highlights emerging domestic pressures. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation jumped to a multi-month high of 1.81% in January, up from 0.83% in December. This surge was primarily fueled by rising costs in food and manufactured items.
Retail inflation also climbed to 2.75% in January under a newly revised consumer price index (CPI) series. While this remains within the RBI’s target range of 2% to 6%, the upward trajectory suggests that the central bank may maintain a hawkish stance, potentially keeping interest rates on hold for an extended period through 2026.
**EQUITY AND CAPITAL FLOWS**
The domestic equity market faced downward pressure on Tuesday. The Sensex declined 245.87 points to close near 83,031.28, while the Nifty 50 dropped 106.45 points to 25,576.30. This cautious sentiment was exacerbated by FIIs offloading equities worth approximately ₹972.13 crore.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continue to act as a vital cushion, absorbing much of the foreign selling with net purchases exceeding ₹1,667 crore. Despite the current volatility, India's trade fundamentals show mixed signals; while exports rose marginally to $36.56 billion in January, the trade deficit widened to a three-month high of $34.68 billion.
**OUTLOOK**
The rupee is expected to remain in a consolidated range between 90.50 and 91.20 in the near term. Traders are closely monitoring the dollar index, which currently stands at 97.14, and the upcoming India-France defense dialogue for potential impacts on regional sentiment.
The RBI’s proactive strategy of selling dollars before market hours has effectively signaled a floor for the currency, deterring speculative short positions. Market participants will focus on the next set of employment data and global central bank commentary to gauge the long-term direction of the USD/INR pair.