Sameer Dalal: Buying Opportunity Amid Tariff Uncertainty, Iran Tensions, and IT Stock Volatility
Indian equity markets are navigating a period of sharp global transitions. The Nifty 50 currently holds a position near **25,571**, while the Sensex has stabilized around **82,814**. Despite external pressures, domestic benchmarks have recently recorded a three-day winning streak, signaling underlying resilience.
Market participants are closely tracking the impact of a revised **15%** global tariff announced by the U.S. administration. While this has deferred some bilateral trade discussions, the immediate effect on Indian exports is being partially cushioned by a new trade agreement that brought reciprocal rates down from previous highs.
Oil price volatility remains a critical variable. Brent crude is trading in the range of **$70.81** to **$71.28** per barrel. While these levels are currently manageable, any geopolitical escalation in the Middle East that pushes prices higher poses a direct risk to India’s inflation targets and trade deficit.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to exert pressure on the cash segment, with net sales totaling approximately **₹1,374 crore** so far in February. This follows a heavy exit of over **₹41,000 crore** in January. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have acted as a significant buffer, absorbing the selling with substantial inflows.
The valuation correction in the IT sector is reaching a mature stage. The Nifty IT index recently faced an **8.2%** weekly decline, but analysts suggest the downside is now limited. IT spending in India is actually projected to grow by **10.6%** in 2026, reaching an estimated **$176.3 billion**.
Mid-sized private banks remain a focal point for growth. Despite a recent **₹590-crore** fraud incident involving a prominent mid-sized lender, the regulator has indicated no systemic risk. The sector continues to see interest as the RBI proposes raising collateral-free MSME loan limits to **₹20 lakh**, potentially boosting credit books.
Currency markets show the Indian Rupee trading near **90.73** against the US Dollar. Record foreign exchange reserves of **$725.7 billion** provide a robust safety net against further depreciation.
Investors are increasingly adopting a "buy on dips" strategy. The current market P/E ratio stands at approximately **22.4** for the Nifty 50, which is considered a fair valuation for long-term entry, especially as corporate earnings growth for the next fiscal year remains promising.