**Market Brief: SEBI Agricultural Futures Ban** **Current Status: Ban Active & Extension Likely** The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) currently enforces a suspension on futures trading for key agricultural commodities, valid until **March 31, 2026**. Latest market reports from **February 2026** indicate the regulator is poised to extend this ban for **another year** (until 2027), continuing its conservative stance on food inflation and market stability. **Affected Commodities** The suspension applies to **7 core agricultural assets** and their derivatives: 1. Wheat 2. Paddy (non-basmati) 3. Moong (Green Gram) 4. Chana (Gram) 5. Mustard Seeds (including derivatives) 6. Soybean (including derivatives) 7. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) **Key Drivers & Rationale** * **Inflation Control:** Government focus remains on curbing food price volatility. Officials cite that while prices have stabilized, removing restrictions now could reignite speculative pressure. * **Speculation Concerns:** The ban, originally imposed in **December 2021**, was designed to strip speculative froth from essential food items. * **Conflicting Views:** A SEBI-appointed panel in late **2025** had reportedly recommended *lifting* the ban to boost liquidity and aid price discovery. However, the regulator appears to be favoring caution over market liberalization for the upcoming fiscal year. **Industry Impact** * **Hedging Void:** The continued suspension leaves farmers, processors, and importers without domestic hedging tools, exposing them to global price swings. * **Volume Shift:** Trade volumes on exchanges like **NCDEX** have seen significant declines as liquidity dries up in the absence of these anchor commodities. * **Stakeholder Pushback:** Industry bodies argue that without futures contracts, the value chain loses critical price signals, ultimately hurting the farmers the policy aims to protect. **Next Steps** Market participants should prepare for the formal notification of the extension before the **March 31, 2026** expiry. Traders are advised to maintain alternative risk management strategies for the listed commodities.