Market Brief: Gold & Silver Volatility (February 5, 2026) **Futures Market: A Tale of Two Metals** Contrary to earlier trends of unified decline, the MCX trading session on Thursday, February 5, 2026, witnessed a dramatic decoupling between gold and silver. While **Silver futures** faced intense selling pressure, locking into a lower circuit at approximately **₹2,80,000 per kg**, **Gold futures** staged a significant recovery. Gold contracts defied the broader bearish sentiment seen earlier in the week, surging by roughly **₹5,500** to reclaim levels near **₹1,59,440 per 10 grams**. This rebound marks a sharp reversal from the sell-offs earlier in the week, driven by renewed buying interest and short-covering. **Geopolitical Developments: U.S.-Iran Talks** Market sentiment remains heavily influenced by geopolitical maneuvering. The United States and Iran are scheduled to hold high-stakes negotiations in **Oman** this Friday. These talks, relocated from Turkey, aim to address escalating tensions, specifically focusing on Iran's nuclear program. While the prospect of diplomacy typically dampens demand for safe-haven assets, the market response has been mixed. The sharp divergence in precious metals suggests that while silver traders are liquidating positions in anticipation of de-escalation or margin pressures, gold investors remain cautious, retaining the yellow metal as a hedge against potential diplomatic failure or persisting instability in the region. **The "Two-Tier" Silver Crisis** A critical anomaly has emerged in the silver market. A massive price gap of nearly **₹40,000 per kg** has opened between the futures (paper) market and the physical market. * **Futures Price:** ~₹2,80,000 per kg (MCX Lower Circuit) * **Physical Spot Price:** ~₹3,20,100 per kg This disconnect indicates a "loss of confidence" in paper derivatives, where speculative exits are driving prices down, while physical demand for the white metal remains robust, keeping spot prices significantly higher. **Spot Market Rates: Major Indian Cities** Physical gold rates have synchronized with the futures rally, seeing upward revisions across major hubs. Silver remains expensive in the retail market despite the futures crash. **Gold (24 Carat / 10 grams):** * **Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru:** ₹1,59,440 – ₹1,60,350 * **Delhi:** ₹1,59,600 – ₹1,60,680 * **Chennai:** ₹1,62,250 (Continuing to command a premium) **Silver (1 kg):** * **National Average:** ₹3,20,100 * **Chennai:** ₹3,20,100+ (High demand sustaining premium rates) **Expert Outlook & Trading View** Analysts predict continued volatility leading into the weekend. The focus remains on two key triggers: 1. **The outcome of the Oman talks:** A positive breakthrough could cap gold's upside, while a stalemate may fuel further rallies. 2. **The Silver Spread:** The unsustainable gap between physical and futures silver prices is expected to force a correction, though it is unclear whether futures will rise to meet spot prices or spot prices will eventually succumb to the futures drag. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution, particularly in silver, where liquidity issues at the lower circuit can trap positions. Gold remains supported above the **₹1,55,000** level, with resistance likely near the **₹1,62,000** mark.