India’s steel market has staged a dramatic recovery, with hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices climbing to a two-year high of ₹54,000 per tonne. This marks a sharp reversal from November lows of ₹47,000, driven by a combination of policy protection, surging input costs, and a frontloaded infrastructure cycle. The government’s decision to impose a 12% safeguard duty on imported HRC has effectively insulated the domestic market. This duty, set to taper slightly to 11.5% in April 2026, has already caused a 13% year-on-year drop in total steel imports. With imported steel currently landing at approximately ₹57,000 per tonne, domestic producers hold a clear pricing advantage. Coking coal remains the primary cost driver, with prices rising 30% year-on-year. Since coking coal accounts for roughly 35% of production costs, Indian steelmakers have successfully passed these expenses downstream. Market analysts have recently raised the 2026 coking coal price forecast to $190 per tonne, suggesting that cost-led price floors will remain elevated throughout the year. Demand fundamentals are robust, with a projected growth of 8% to 9% for the current fiscal year. This surge is fueled by the pre-monsoon construction window and large-scale government projects under the Bharatmala and PM-AWAS schemes. Infrastructure and construction now absorb nearly 65% of India’s total steel output. Steel producers are seeing a significant inflection in financial performance. EBITDA per tonne is now ranging between ₹5,000 and ₹13,600 across major manufacturers. Experts anticipate a further margin expansion of ₹3,000 to ₹4,000 per tonne in the coming quarter as higher realizations take effect and raw material volatility begins to stabilize. The long-term outlook remains aggressive as India targets a production capacity of 300 million tonnes by 2030. While global markets face stagnation, India stands out as the fastest-growing steel consumer. Sustained domestic demand and a disciplined pricing environment are expected to maintain this favorable momentum through the first half of 2026.