Sunny Agrawal Analyzes Execution Risks for NCC and Investment Outlook for Reliance Industries
Market Brief: Infrastructure & Energy Outlook
**Market Overview**
The Indian equity market is navigating a period of heightened volatility. The **Nifty 50** recently faced a sharp correction, dropping nearly **400 points** to settle around **25,400**. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have pushed India VIX up by **10%**, signaling increased investor anxiety.
Despite the turbulence, technical indicators suggest a crucial psychological and structural support floor at the **25,000** level. Maintaining this base is essential for a potential rebound toward the **25,800** resistance zone.
**NCC Ltd: Execution Hurdles**
The construction major is facing a challenging phase as it moves into **FY26**. While the company maintains a massive consolidated order book of nearly **₹79,571 crore**, short-term growth is under pressure.
Recent operational headwinds include:
* **Withdrawal of FY26 guidance** due to payment delays in government schemes like the Jal Jeevan Mission.
* **Execution delays** stemming from elongated monsoon cycles and permit issues.
* **Regulatory pressure** following a recent two-year debarment by NHAI from fresh road tenders, which sent the stock to a 52-week low of **₹135**.
The stock is currently trading near **₹150**, significantly below its 52-week high of **₹347**. Analysts suggest that while valuations are attractive at a price-to-book ratio of **0.46**, investors should focus on gradual accumulation rather than aggressive buying until execution visibility improves.
**Reliance Industries: Consumer-Led Recovery**
Reliance Industries (RIL) is positioned as a structural "buy on dips" candidate. The stock has seen recent pressure, hovering near the **₹1,400** mark, but its long-term outlook remains bolstered by its non-oil verticals.
Key growth drivers identified for the coming quarters include:
* **Telecom Expansion:** Potential tariff hikes in mid-2026 are expected to provide a significant earnings kicker for Jio.
* **Retail Momentum:** Steady scaling in the digital and physical retail space continues to drive cash flow.
* **Energy Resilience:** Crude price spikes amid Middle East tensions are providing near-term support for the upstream oil and gas segment.
With a current market capitalization of approximately **₹19.5 lakh crore**, brokerage targets for RIL sit between **₹1,700 and ₹1,800** over the next 12 to 18 months.
**Investor Strategy**
The current environment favors a defensive approach. While the infrastructure sector faces a "wait and watch" period due to payment cycles, large-cap heavyweights like Reliance offer a cushion against broader market swings.
Staggered entry into **NCC** is viable for long-term players eyeing the recovery of its **₹72,000 crore** standalone order book, while **Reliance** serves as a core portfolio play for those betting on India's digital and consumer growth.