**MARKET BRIEF: UNION BUDGET 2026 SPECIAL** **Market Status: Budget Day Focus** Global and domestic investors are tuned in for the Union Budget 2026-27 presentation today, Sunday, February 1. In a rare move, Indian stock exchanges are conducting a special trading session to react live to the Finance Minister's announcements. **Indices & Trends** Markets enter this session with caution following a volatile week. * **Nifty 50** closed Friday at **25,320** * **Sensex** settled at **82,270** Volatility remains elevated due to sustained foreign outflows and currency pressure, though domestic flows continue to provide support. **Policy Expectations: Capex Over Stimulus** Tata Asset Management CIO Rahul Singh projects a pragmatic budget with limited scope for aggressive fiscal stimulus. * **Key Focus:** Continued thrust on **Capital Expenditure (Capex)** and rationalisation of **customs duties**. * **Fiscal Path:** The government is expected to stick to fiscal consolidation, with the current year's (FY26) deficit on track to meet the **4.4%** target. * **Taxation:** Major changes to capital gains tax are considered unlikely, offering some relief to market sentiment. **Valuation Update** India's relative valuation has moderated, making it more appealing for emerging market allocators. * **Premium Decline:** The valuation premium over Emerging Markets (EM) has corrected to approx **50%**, down significantly from the **80–90%** highs seen in mid-2024. * **Flows:** This improved risk-reward ratio could attract fresh foreign inflows once global uncertainties stabilize. **Economic Outlook** The Economic Survey tabled earlier forecasts a robust growth trajectory, estimating real GDP growth between **6.8% and 7.2%** for FY27, underpinned by macroeconomic stability and investment-led demand. [Rahul Singh's 2026 Market Insights](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6lT2Q0b9lo) This video is relevant as it features Rahul Singh directly explaining the structural factors and valuation shifts expected to drive the markets in 2026, expanding on the brief's summary. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0