Ten Key Factors Likely to Influence Indian Stock Market Performance on Monday
Market Brief: Equity and Economic Pulse
Indian benchmark indices demonstrated resilience during the final trading session of the week, overcoming initial morning slumps to finish in positive territory. The **Nifty 50** climbed **116.90 points** to settle at **25,571.25**, while the **BSE Sensex** rose **316.57 points** to end at **82,814.71**. This recovery followed a significant mid-week correction where the Sensex had plummeted over **1,200 points** in a single day.
Market volatility remains a primary concern for traders, as evidenced by the **India VIX** jumping **6.7%** to hover near the **14.36** mark. This spike reflects heightened anxiety regarding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies. Analysts currently expect the Nifty to oscillate within a support-resistance range of **25,300 to 25,800** in the immediate term.
Sectoral Performance and Global Triggers
Sectoral trends showed a clear rotation toward domestic cyclicals and industrials. **Nifty Metal** and **PSU Bank** indices led the gains, with the metal sector buoyed by news of potential easing in U.S. steel tariffs. **Tata Steel** surged **2.9%**, while **Hindustan Unilever** gained **1.8%** to support the FMCG segment. Conversely, the **IT sector** lagged as investors booked profits, with **Infosys** and **HCL Tech** seeing declines of over **1%**.
Global markets provided a mixed but ultimately supportive backdrop. U.S. and European indices closed higher, largely boosted by a landmark **Supreme Court ruling** that struck down certain administrative tariffs, easing fears of immediate trade wars. However, escalating tensions between the **U.S. and Iran** have kept crude oil prices near **$70 per barrel**, maintaining pressure on India’s trade deficit and rupee, which is trading around **90.98** per dollar.
Macro-Economic Indicators
India continues to hold its position as the fastest-growing major economy, with real **GDP growth estimated at 8.2%** for the most recent quarter. Manufacturing and services remain the primary engines, growing at **9.1%** and **9.2%** respectively. Inflation has shown cooling trends, with **CPI easing toward 1.7%** in early 2026, though food prices remain a variable that the RBI is monitoring closely.
Investment-led growth is a central theme following the **Union Budget 2026**, which earmarked **₹10 lakh crore** for infrastructure and green energy. While the initial market reaction to new derivative taxes was negative, the focus has shifted to long-term capital expenditure and the landmark **India-U.S. trade agreement**, which is expected to boost textile and electronic exports.
Liquidity and Investor Sentiment
The market structure has seen a notable shift in participation. While **Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)** have remained cautious due to a strong dollar, **Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)** continue to provide a floor to the market through consistent SIP inflows. The total market capitalization of BSE-listed firms now stands at approximately **₹467 lakh crore**, reflecting a surge of **₹2 lakh crore** in investor wealth during the last session alone.
Upcoming triggers for the week ahead include **RBI policy commentary**, **Nvidia’s earnings** globally, and high-frequency data such as vehicle sales and GST collections. Analysts suggest a "buy-on-dips" strategy as the broader structural narrative remains intact despite short-term global headwinds.