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Copper markets are navigating a period of high volatility in February 2026, characterized by a strategic retreat from record highs established in late January. While long-term fundamentals remain anchored by the energy transition, short-term pricing is reacting to shifting inventory levels and specific geopolitical maneuvers.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price currently fluctuates between **$12,700** and **$13,000** per tonne. This follows a historic peak of **$14,527** per tonne reached on January 29, 2026. The market is currently testing support levels near **$12,600**, with technical resistance noted at the **$13,200** mark.
A primary driver of recent price action is the aggressive stockpiling in the United States. Domestic inventories surged to over **590,000** tonnes in early February, roughly five times the volume recorded a year prior. This accumulation is largely attributed to anticipated trade policy shifts and the implementation of "Project Vault," a **$12 billion** strategic raw-material reserve initiative.
Global supply remains technically in a surplus of approximately **300,000** tonnes for 2026. However, this figure is misleading when viewed against the structural deficit in copper concentrates. Smelting and refining bottlenecks persist, particularly as US processing capacity only meets a fraction of its domestic demand, forcing heavy reliance on foreign refined metal.
In China, the world's largest consumer, demand has shown a seasonal cooling following the Lunar New Year. Despite this, the State Grid has signaled a massive investment of **4 trillion yuan** for the 2026–2030 period, a **40%** increase over previous estimates. This infrastructure push is expected to absorb significant volumes of refined copper for ultra-high-voltage power lines.
The technology sector is emerging as a critical demand pillar. Artificial Intelligence infrastructure and data center expansion now account for a rising share of high-grade copper plate consumption. Data centers alone are projected to require over **2.6 million** tons of refined copper annually by the next decade to support power distribution and cooling systems.
Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing continues to multiply copper intensity. A standard battery-electric vehicle in 2026 utilizes between **50 kg** and **80 kg** of copper, compared to just **20 kg** in traditional internal combustion engines. This represents a **3x** to **4x** increase in metal usage per unit, insulating the sector from broader industrial cooling.
Market analysts maintain a constructive medium-term outlook despite the current price correction. Forecasts suggest an average price of **$12,125** per metric tonne for the remainder of 2026. While speculative net-long positions have been trimmed recently, the ongoing imbalance between aging mine supply and surging electrification needs continues to provide a firm floor for the market.