Market Outlook: Friday, February 13, 2026 U.S. stock index futures remained subdued on Friday morning as Wall Street braced for critical inflation data. After a turbulent Thursday that wiped out year-to-date gains for the **S&P 500**, investors are showing extreme caution. The focus is squarely on the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Analysts expect the annual inflation rate to ease to **2.5%**, down from **2.7%** in December. A reading in line with or lower than this figure could stabilize the market, while a "hotter" print would likely crush remaining hopes for a spring interest rate cut. Tech and AI Under Pressure The "AI scare trade" continues to dominate headlines. Sentiment has shifted from pure optimism to deep concern over disruption. Investors are now punishing companies they fear will lose out to rapidly advancing automated tools. * **Nasdaq 100** futures slipped **0.04%** following a **2%** plunge on Thursday. * **S&P 500** futures edged down **0.09%** to start the day. * **Dow Jones** futures fell **103 points**, or **0.21%**, signaling a defensive opening. Despite the broader gloom, **Applied Materials** jumped **11.5%** in premarket trading. The chipmaker provided a strong forecast, proving that hardware providers still benefit from the massive **$650 billion** in cumulative AI spending projected for the "Magnificent Seven" this year. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates Market expectations for a Federal Reserve pivot have been pushed back significantly. Following a robust jobs report earlier this week, the likelihood of a rate cut before June has dwindled. The Fed currently maintains a target range of **3.50% to 3.75%**. Most traders are now pricing in a **70%** chance of a cut in June, with a total of only **60 basis points** of easing expected for the entirety of 2026. Sector Highlights The selloff is rippling beyond software into logistics and financial services. Trucking and brokerage stocks have seen sharp declines as markets reassess how automation will impact traditional labor-heavy business models. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand has provided slight support to the **U.S. Dollar Index**, which rose to **97.07**. In the bond market, the **10-year Treasury yield** climbed to **4.12%** as investors weighed persistent economic strength against the threat of sticky inflation. The day's price action will likely be determined by the **8:30 a.m. ET** inflation release. Until then, trading remains thin and defensive.