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Today's Pre-market Trade Setup
**INDIA EQUITIES: WEEKLY MARKET WRAP & OUTLOOK** --- **Friday Closing Summary** The Indian equity markets concluded the week with **marginal gains**, driven primarily by positive momentum in the **Information Technology (IT)** and **Banking** sectors. This recovery helped the indices snap a two-day losing streak, though profit-booking towards the close capped the broader rally. **Near-Term Outlook** Analysts anticipate a **sideways trading range** in the immediate future. Market movements are expected to be highly **stock-specific**, with corporate **earnings** announcements and global **trade developments** serving as the key catalysts for individual stock performance. **Key Risk Factors** **Geopolitical escalations** continue to be flagged as a primary systemic risk factor, warranting careful monitoring by investors.
Impact of Trump's Greenland Tariff Threats on Gold, Silver, and Indian Equities
📈 U.S. Tariff Threats & Geopolitical Uncertainty Fresh **U.S. tariff threats** initiated by President Donald Trump, explicitly linked to **Greenland**, have introduced renewed **geopolitical uncertainty** and **unsettled global markets**. --- **Immediate Market Impact** * **Safe-Haven Rally:** The immediate reaction has been a surge in demand for **safe-haven assets**, specifically **gold** and **silver**, reflecting increased investor risk aversion. * **Equity Volatility:** Near-term market forecasts suggest continued **volatility risks** for global **equities** as investors digest the implications of the trade escalation. --- **Longer-Term Opportunities for India** Despite the immediate global market jitters, analysts anticipate potential **longer-term opportunities** for India driven by these shifts: * **Accelerated Trade:** The current global environment may **accelerate trade negotiations** between India and key global partners seeking diversified supply chains. * **Supply Chain Shift:** Geopolitical tensions could potentially catalyze a **shifting global supply dynamic**, positioning India as an attractive alternative manufacturing and trade hub. --- **Summary:** The Greenland-linked tariff threats are driving near-term volatility and a flight to safety, but they simultaneously create a strategic window for India to capitalize on global supply chain restructuring.
Venezuelan Banks to Receive $300 Million in Oil Proceeds for Exchange Market Sale
Venezuelan FX Liquidity Injection **Executive Summary** Venezuelan financial institutions are set to receive a **$300 million capital injection** derived from state oil revenues. These funds, repatriated from accounts held in Qatar, are designated for distribution within the domestic foreign exchange market. **Operational Mechanism & Economic Impact** * **Currency Allocation:** Local banks will liquidate these dollars to private sector entities. * **Strategic Objective:** The infusion aims to alleviate acute foreign currency shortages, providing necessary liquidity for Venezuelan companies to finance the import of essential raw materials and sustain operations. **Geopolitical Context** This measure follows a period of constricted revenue streams exacerbated by U.S. enforcement actions, specifically the seizure of oil tankers. These seizures had previously disrupted the country's primary export channel, significantly tightening the availability of foreign reserves.
Jefferies’ Wood Views Bitcoin as Safe Asset Subject to Future Decryption Risk
Strategic Portfolio Reallocation **Subject:** Jefferies Strategist Exits Bitcoin Position Over Quantum Computing Risks **Executive Summary** Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, has eliminated Bitcoin exposure from his long-only global portfolio. This strategic pivot highlights a growing institutional caution regarding the long-term viability of cryptographic security measures amidst rapid technological evolution. **Key Drivers** * **Technological Risk:** Wood cited the accelerating development of quantum computing as a primary threat to the encryption protocols underpinning Bitcoin and the broader blockchain infrastructure. * **Asset Rotation:** Capital previously allocated to digital assets is being redistributed into traditional defensive assets. * **Focus on Gold:** The strategy is increasing its weighting in physical gold and gold mining equities, reinforcing a preference for time-tested hard assets over digital alternatives in the face of perceived technological vulnerabilities.
Reliance Industries Q3 Earnings Preview: Analysts Project Steady Growth, O2C Boost
** Reliance Industries Q3 FY26 Outlook** Reliance Industries (RIL) is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings today. Market expectations center on a robust performance from the **Energy** division, specifically within the refining sector. Analysts anticipate that wider **diesel cracks** and the **depreciation of the rupee** will act as primary catalysts for margin expansion in this segment. The **Telecommunications** arm, Reliance Jio, remains a focal point for investors. Attention is concentrated on the **Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)** trajectory, which serves as a critical metric for long-term profitability and valuation in the digital services space. Contrasting these strengths, the **Retail** segment is navigating significant operational hurdles. Performance in this area is being pressured by a broader **slowdown in consumption** and continued losses stemming from aggressive competition in the **quick commerce** market. The **Petrochemicals** business also presents a cautious outlook. Persistent global supply-demand imbalances continue to exert pressure on margins, making this a high-priority area for management commentary during the earnings call.
Ten stocks fall below 200-day moving average in negative market breakout.
Technical Trend Analysis The **200-Day Daily Moving Average (DMA)** remains a fundamental technical benchmark used by institutional and retail traders to define the long-term trajectory of an equity. By smoothing price data over a rolling **200-day** period, this indicator filters out short-term market noise to reveal the underlying momentum. Positioning relative to this line serves as a primary trend filter. Securities trading above the **200 DMA** are generally classified in a structural uptrend, while those consistently trading below it are viewed as being in a long-term downtrend. Market participants frequently monitor the **200 DMA** as a psychological support or resistance zone. Reversals often occur at this level, making it a critical pivot point for risk management and capital allocation strategies during periods of high volatility.
Silver Market Volatility Rises Amid Warnings of Potential $30 Price Correction
Silver 2025 Outlook Neo Wealth has issued a tactical warning regarding silver’s 2025 performance. While industrial demand continues to drive the primary narrative, the metal is increasingly susceptible to **sharp price reversals**. Current market structures reveal significant risks. **Heavy leverage** and **backwardation** have created a fragile environment. These factors, combined with volatile investment flows, could trigger sudden liquidity shocks. Investors should note that prices may drop **well below established support levels**. Historical precedents of market crashes suggest that long-term fundamentals often fail to prevent short-term liquidations. The discrepancy between physical demand and speculative positioning remains a primary concern. Even with intact industrial growth, the risk of a **rapid deleveraging event** dominates the immediate forecast.
DOJ Probe of Federal Reserve Sparks Debate Over Central Bank Autonomy
Fed Independence and Political Tensions Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has addressed rising friction between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, characterizing the conflict as a fundamental disagreement over monetary policy. Kashkari expressed firm support for Chair Jerome Powell following a Justice Department investigation, emphasizing that the central bank must operate without political interference. Maintaining the autonomy of the Fed is a primary concern for officials. Kashkari warned that sustained political pressure could undermine the institution's independence, which is viewed as a cornerstone of national economic stability. Despite the escalating rhetoric, market volatility has remained limited. Investors appear bolstered by bipartisan support in Congress and a prevailing legal consensus. Most analysts expect the Supreme Court to eventually uphold the Federal Reserve’s distinct legal status, shielding it from direct executive control.
Copper Reaches Record High as Physical Demand Concerns Rise
Copper prices reached an unprecedented high this Wednesday, driven by sustained demand from speculative investment funds. The surge underscores a significant influx of capital into the metals market, reflecting bullish sentiment among financial players. Despite the record valuation, market participants remain cautious regarding long-term price sustainability. Concerns persist that elevated costs may dampen demand from industrial end-users, potentially leading to a pullback in physical consumption as manufacturers evaluate the impact on production margins.
UBS Lowers Eternal and Swiggy EBITDA Estimates Amid Intensifying Quick Commerce Competition
UBS has revised EBITDA estimates downward for Zomato-owned Eternal and Swiggy, citing intensifying competition within the quick commerce sector. Heightened rivalry is driving broader discounting strategies, which are expected to delay margin recovery across the industry. Aggressive pricing maneuvers by Amazon and Zepto have shifted the projected breakeven timeline for Blinkit to FY27. Similarly, these competitive pressures are weakening Instamart’s margins in the near term. While immediate profitability faces headwinds, the long-term growth outlook for the quick commerce segment remains intact. Analysts indicate that current market share battles are prioritizing scale over immediate bottom-line performance.
Indian Rupee Ends Slightly Lower at 90.29 Against US Dollar
📉 Indian Rupee Settlement The Indian Rupee reversed earlier gains to close 6 paise lower at a provisional **90.29** against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The currency's depreciation was driven by a combination of factors. Strength in the US Dollar, continued **foreign institutional outflows** from capital markets, and **elevated crude oil prices** collectively outweighed the impact of likely central bank intervention.
Sensex Declines as Nifty Drops Below 25,700 Amid Outflows and Oil Pressures
🇮🇳 India Market Brief India's benchmark indices opened slightly lower on Wednesday. Market sentiment remained cautious, capping potential gains in domestic equities. Persistent selling activity from foreign investors, combined with rising global crude oil prices, outweighed the supporting effect of steady domestic corporate earnings reports.
Yajur Fibres SME listing today: Check GMP ahead of market debut.
Yajur Fibres is scheduled to debut on the BSE SME platform following an initial public offering of **Rs 120 crore**. Grey market indicators currently suggest a muted listing, reflecting the modest subscription levels observed during the bidding period. The company specializes in the processing of **bast fibres** into cotton-like materials, catering to the growing demand for sustainable textiles. This specialized manufacturing process positions the firm within the eco-friendly materials sector of the garment industry. Proceeds from the capital raise are earmarked for **strategic expansion** and the fulfillment of **working capital requirements**. These investments are intended to scale production capacity and stabilize the company’s operational liquidity post-listing.
ICICI Lombard Q3 Net Profit Declines 9% Year-on-Year
ICICI Lombard General Insurance reported a **9% year-on-year decline in net profit** for the quarter ending December, primarily driven by elevated claim volumes and weakened underwriting performance. Despite the contraction in bottom-line earnings, the insurer maintained top-line momentum with **gross direct premium income (GDPI) increasing by 13.3%**. This growth reflects sustained demand across core segments, even as operational margins faced pressure. The **combined ratio**, a critical metric of insurance profitability, deteriorated during the period. This upward trend in the ratio indicates that claim payouts and operational expenses accounted for a larger share of earned premiums compared to the previous year.
Lotus Chocolate Shares Drop 10% Following 97% Decline in Q3 Profit
📊 Lotus Quarterly Performance Lotus reported a **14% decrease** in revenue from operations for the quarter. The company's revenue from operations for the quarter under review was **₹142 crore**. This is down from **₹165 crore** reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.