Bullish News
Collection
USD Steady Amid Geopolitical Negotiations and Upcoming Fed Minutes
Global markets remained cautious on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, as investors navigated a complex landscape of cooling inflation and persistent geopolitical friction. Major U.S. indices showed marginal movement, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.1% to 6,843.22, while the Dow Jones rose 0.07% to 49,533.19. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw a modest gain of 0.14%, ending the session at 22,578.38. Market participants are focused on the Federal Reserve's current pause in rate adjustments. The federal funds rate remains held in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Investors are scrutinizing recent Fed communications for clarity on the path forward, especially following the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell. While the economy remains solid, a recent uptick in the VIX to 20.29 reflects a slight increase in underlying market anxiety. In Asia, the Japanese yen showed stability against the dollar, trading near the 156.50 level. This follows reports of a manufacturing sector recovery, with the Japan Manufacturing PMI hitting 51.5 in early 2026āthe strongest expansion in factory activity since mid-2022. Domestic sentiment is bolstered by rising machine tool orders, which surged 25.3% in January, signaling robust capital investment. Geopolitical developments have provided a mix of optimism and caution. In Geneva, U.S. and Iranian negotiators reported progress on "general guiding principles" for a potential nuclear agreement. While significant gaps remain regarding uranium enrichment and verification, both sides characterized the latest round as constructive, reducing immediate fears of military escalation in the region. Simultaneously, trilateral peace negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. continued in Switzerland. Despite ongoing airstrikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, delegations have moved into discussions on the "mechanics of possible decisions." Ukraine maintains its stance against territorial concessions in the Donetsk region, keeping expectations for a total breakthrough measured as the conflict nears its four-year mark. European equity markets reflected this wait-and-see approach. The DAX in Germany gained 0.8% to reach 24,998.40, while the FTSE 100 in London rose 0.79% to 10,556.17. Global growth for 2026 is currently projected at 3.3%, a slight upward revision that suggests resilience despite the shifting trade policies and high-stakes diplomacy currently dominating the headlines.
US Stock Market: Equities Close Slightly Higher Amid Tech Recovery
Indian Markets Extend Recovery The Indian equity market maintained its upward momentum for a second consecutive session. The **Nifty 50** rose **42.65 points** to close at **25,725.40**, while the **Sensex** settled **173 points** higher at **83,450.96**. Public sector banks spearheaded the rally, with the **Nifty PSU Bank** index jumping **2.1%** on robust credit growth expectations. Technology shares also staged a notable recovery, gaining **1.0%** following a major collaboration between **Infosys** and an AI firm. Market volatility, measured by the **India VIX**, dropped significantly by **4.93%**, suggesting a shift toward stability. However, gold and silver futures saw a sharp decline of up to **3%** as investors reacted to a firmer dollar and higher bond yields. Strategic Shift for Norwegian Cruise Line Shares of **Norwegian Cruise Line** surged over **12%** following revelations that **Elliott Investment Management** has built a stake exceeding **10%**. The activist firm is now one of the company's largest shareholders and is pushing for a comprehensive board overhaul. The cruise operator has faced criticism for underperforming its peers, with its stock remaining near pandemic-era levels. Elliottās intervention, which includes plans to nominate new directors, has fueled investor optimism for a strategic turnaround. The company recently appointed a new CEO and announced orders for three high-tech ships scheduled for delivery in **2036**. Despite record revenues of **$2.94 billion** in late **2025**, the firm continues to battle inconsistent cost discipline. Danaher to Acquire Masimo for $10 Billion Medical technology firm **Masimo Corporation** saw its stock skyrocket **34.3%** to **$174.78** after a definitive agreement for its acquisition by **Danaher Corporation**. The all-cash deal is valued at **$180 per share**, totaling approximately **$9.9 billion**. The transaction will integrate Masimo into Danaherās diagnostics segment as a standalone unit. Masimo is a global leader in pulse oximetry, with its technology used on more than **200 million** patients annually. Danaher expects the acquisition to be accretive to earnings, projecting **$125 million** in annual cost synergies within five years. The deal is slated to close in the second half of **2026**, pending regulatory and shareholder approval. General Mills Revises Outlook Downward **General Mills** faced a sharp decline after cutting its fiscal **2026** financial outlook during the Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference. The company now expects organic net sales to drop between **1.5%** and **2.0%**. Adjusted operating profit and diluted earnings per share are projected to fall by **16%** to **20%** in constant currency. This revision is more severe than the previous forecast of a **10%** to **15%** decline. Management cited a "volatile operating environment" and weak consumer sentiment as the primary drivers of the slower-than-expected volume recovery. Despite the downturn, the firm maintains a healthy dividend yield of **5.05%** and aims for a **95%** free cash flow conversion.
Portland General Electric to Acquire PacifiCorpās Washington Assets for $1.9 Billion
PacifiCorp has reached a definitive agreement to sell its Washington state energy assets and infrastructure to Portland General Electric (PGE) for **$1.9 billion**. This major divestiture by the Berkshire Hathaway-owned utility comes as it faces significant financial pressure from ongoing wildfire litigation in Oregon. The deal includes a comprehensive portfolio of generation and distribution assets. PGE will acquire the **477-MW** Chehalis natural gas plant alongside the Goodnoe Hills and Marengo wind facilities. The transaction also encompasses **4,500 miles** of transmission and distribution lines, serving approximately **140,000 customers** across **2,700 square miles** in central and southern Washington. PacifiCorp is taking this step to bolster liquidity as it manages potential liabilities from the 2020 Labor Day wildfires. While the utility has recently settled smoke-related claims with Oregon wineries for **$125 million**, it still faces broader class-action litigation where damage claims have been estimated as high as **$52 billion**. The company cited "extraordinary pressure" from diverging state policies and regulatory challenges across its six-state service area as a primary driver for the sale. This move is intended to simplify operations and stabilize credit ratings that have been impacted by the legal landscape in the Pacific Northwest. For Portland General Electric, the acquisition represents a transformational expansion. To fund the **$1.9 billion** purchase, PGE has secured bridge and term loans from major financial institutions and partnered with Manulife Investment Management, which will take a **49%** stake in the newly acquired Washington business. The transaction is expected to be accretive to PGEās earnings within the first full year of ownership. The deal now enters a regulatory review phase involving federal and state commissions, with a final closing expected to take at least **12 months**. During this period, existing electricity rates and local operations in areas like Yakima and Walla Walla are expected to remain stable.
Berkshire Hathaway Adds New York Times Stake, Reduces Apple Holding
Berkshire Hathaway Market Brief: Q4 2025 ā Feb 2026 Berkshire Hathaway has marked a strategic return to the media sector by acquiring **5.07 million shares** in **The New York Times (NYT)**. This investment, valued at approximately **$352 million** as of the latest regulatory filings, represents a significant reversal from Warren Buffettās 2020 exit from the newspaper industry. The disclosure on **February 17, 2026**, sent NYT shares climbing more than **3%** in after-hours trading. The publisher recently reported strong momentum, hitting an all-time high of **$74.23** and boasting over **12 million** digital subscribers, fueled by its diversified digital strategy including games and sports. Leadership Transition This quarterly update arrives at a historic pivot point for the conglomerate. **Greg Abel** officially succeeded Warren Buffett as Chief Executive Officer on **January 1, 2026**. While Buffett remains Chairman of the Board, Abel now holds day-to-day leadership of the **$1.1 trillion** enterprise. The transition has been accompanied by a broader leadership overhaul, including the departure of portfolio manager Todd Combs to JPMorgan Chase and the appointment of new lieutenants to oversee Berkshireās **32** core operating businesses. Portfolio Rebalancing and Tech Adjustments In the final months of 2025, Berkshire continued to aggressively rebalance its massive equity portfolio. The conglomerate trimmed its stake in **Apple** for the third consecutive quarter, selling roughly **10.3 million** shares. Despite a **4.3%** reduction in position size, Apple remains Berkshireās largest holding, valued at approximately **$62 billion**. The firm also executed a substantial exit from **Amazon**, slashing its position by **77%**. The holding was reduced from roughly **$2.2 billion** to **$525 million**. This move follows a year where Amazon underperformed the broader market, dropping **11%** while the S&P 500 rose. Banking and Energy Shifts The financial sector saw a notable reduction as well, with Berkshire selling **50.8 million** shares of **Bank of America**. This **8.9%** cut reflects a long-term trend, as the firm has halved its stake in the bank over the past **18 months**, reducing it from over **1 billion** shares to approximately **517 million**. Conversely, Berkshire increased its exposure to the energy sector. The firm added **8 million** shares of **Chevron**, bringing its total to more than **130 million** shares. Chevronās stock has surged nearly **19%** since the start of **2026**, driven by geopolitical shifts and its unique operational position in South American oil markets. Future Outlook Investors are now looking toward **February 28, 2026**, when Berkshire will release its full-year financial results. This will feature Greg Abelās first annual letter to shareholders, a document expected to clarify the firmās strategy for its **$300 billion** cash reserve and the future of its decentralized operating model.
Indian Indices Set for Positive Start Amid Strong Global Cues
Market Dynamics and Economic Shift The global economy enters mid-February 2026 at a critical juncture, characterized by a sharp divergence between traditional sectors and the rapid expansion of technology infrastructure. While the probability of a global recession remains pegged at **35%**, the first half of the year is buoyed by front-loaded fiscal stimulus and a notable rebound in investor sentiment. Inflation continues to be "sticky," hovering around the **3%** mark, as trade-related pressures on goods prices persist. Emerging markets are emerging as the primary engine for growth. India is currently leading major economies with a real growth rate of **7%**, supported by recent credit rating upgrades. Conversely, developed markets are navigating a more complex path of uneven monetary policy and stalling job gains in non-tech sectors. Equities and the AI Paradox Wall Street is currently navigating a period of "directionless" volatility. The S&P 500 stands near **6,820**, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average maintains a narrow lead at approximately **49,525**. The Nasdaq Composite, currently around **22,395**, has faced significant pressure as the initial "AI euphoria" transitions into a demanding "AI disruption" phase. Investors are now scrutinizing the actual return on investment for artificial intelligence. Software leaders have seen dramatic shifts, with some enterprise giants recording year-to-date declines of **30%** to **31%**. Despite these fluctuations, the semiconductor industry remains a powerhouse, with global sales projected to hit a historic peak of **$975 billion** in 2026. This growth is increasingly concentrated in high-performance logic and memory chips, which are expected to see annual growth exceeding **30%**. Energy and Commodities Outlook The energy landscape is defined by a looming supply glut. Brent crude oil is forecasted to average **$58** per barrel in 2026, a result of production levels outpacing global demand. In contrast, U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub have seen a sharp **40%** increase in early 2026 due to inventory withdrawals, with an annual average forecast of **$4.31** per MMBtu. The transition to renewables is accelerating, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is currently in the midst of a **$4 trillion** power market investment boom. Solar generation is expected to surge by **17%** this year alone. However, this shift is creating an acute deficit in industrial metals; copper is projected to swing into a **1 million metric ton** deficit as data centers and electric vehicle infrastructure demand more of the material. Precious Metals and Safe Havens Gold has solidified its position as the premier hedge against geopolitical and financial risk. Prices have experienced extreme volatility, recently reaching record levels near **$4,700** per ounce. While gold maintains strong structural support from emerging market central banks, silver has proven more volatile, experiencing record intraday drops of up to **26%** during recent corrections. The current "gold-to-crude" ratio of **74.87** reflects a market that favors defensive assets over industrial energy. Investors are increasingly adopting "barbell" strategiesāpairing the protection of gold with industrial metals like copper and nickel to capture the upside of the ongoing electrification and AI infrastructure buildout.
Paul Samuelson on the Passive Nature of Successful Investing
Market Dynamics and Strategic Patience Successful wealth creation remains a disciplined process, often compared to watching paint dry. In the current 2026 landscape, the **S&P 500** continues to test this patience. As of February 18, 2026, the index is trading near **6,843**, reflecting a period of consolidation after reaching historical highs earlier in the quarter. The market has entered a phase of heightened selectivity. While the broad index is forecast to deliver a **12% total return** for the year, investors are facing increased dispersion. The "Magnificent 7" leaders, which drove much of the **17.9% gain** in 2025, are seeing a divergence in performance. Currently, six of these top tech leaders are trading roughly **15% below** their all-time peaks, shifting the focus toward broader market participation. Economic Indicators and Rate Cycles Inflationary pressures are showing signs of stabilization. The latest retail inflation data shows a rate of **2.75%**, a significant shift from the volatile peaks of previous years. This cooling trend has allowed major central banks to pause their aggressive tightening. The **Federal Reserve** currently maintains interest rates in the **3.50% to 3.75%** range, providing a more stable backdrop for corporate earnings. Global growth is projected to hold steady at **3.3%** for 2026. This resilience is supported by a rebound in manufacturing and the continued integration of efficiency-driving technologies. However, the 35% probability of a localized recession keeps defensive positioning relevant for disciplined portfolios. Rationality Over Stimulation Modern markets provide constant stimulation, yet the most effective strategies remain rooted in quiet compounding. Retail investor behavior in 2026 shows a maturing trend, with a notable increase in "dip-buying" through diversified ETFs. This reflects a shift away from chasing momentum and toward capturing value during technical pullbacks. Total household wealth has reached record levels, yet cash balances remain in the **98th percentile** historically. This "dry powder" suggests that while investors are cautious, the capacity for long-term reinvestment is substantial. Rationality and diversification continue to serve as the primary defenses against the emotional volatility of daily price swings. Strategic Outlook Market leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap technology into cyclical sectors. Financials, industrials, and materials are gaining momentum as investors rotate toward value. Analysts suggest the S&P 500 could reach **8,500** by the end of the year if earnings growth, currently projected at **12% to 14%**, meets expectations. True wealth is being built by those who ignore the noise of short-term swingsāsuch as the recent **2% fluctuations** in early Februaryāand remain committed to the long-term compounding cycle. The reward for this discipline is a share in the historical **9.8% annual growth** that has characterized the market since its inception.
Global Markets: Asian Equities Rise as Gold Prices Decline
Asia Market Brief: February 18, 2026 Asian equity markets demonstrated a measured upward trend during Wednesday's session. Trading volumes remained notably thin as several regional hubs continued to observe Lunar New Year festivities. Investors are navigating a complex landscape defined by high-stakes central bank decisions and a reassessment of the technology sectorās growth trajectory. Regional Performance and Trends Regional performance was varied, with major indices showing slight gains despite a lack of strong direction from overnight global cues. * **Japan:** The Nikkei 225 hovered around **56,467**, reflecting a slight pullback of **0.60%** as investors weighed currency pressures and upcoming inflation data. * **Hong Kong:** The Hang Seng Index edged up by **0.52%** to approximately **26,706**. Technical indicators suggest the index is finding immediate resistance near the **27,300** level. * **India:** The BSE Sensex rose **0.21%** to **83,451**, while the Gift Nifty showed a modest gain of **0.18%**, reaching **25,710**. Central Bank Policy Focus The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released its February Monetary Policy Statement today, maintaining the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at **2.25%**. Policymakers indicated that while annual inflation sits slightly above the **1% to 3%** target band, they expect it to return to the **2%** midpoint within the next **12 months**. The RBNZ signaled that policy will remain "accommodative for some time" as the economic recovery remains in its early stages. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve remains a focal point. Recent signals from Fed officials suggest a "meeting-by-meeting" approach. While the benchmark rate currently sits in the **3.50% to 3.75%** range, market participants are pricing in approximately **two rate reductions** by the end of **2026**, contingent on inflation moderating toward the **2%** target. Technology and AI Outlook Volatility in the technology sector persists as investors recalibrate expectations for artificial intelligence. Concerns regarding the "AI divide" and the high capital expenditure required for AI infrastructure have led to a more cautious valuation of the "Magnificent Seven" and their Asian counterparts. Market data shows significant year-to-date pressure on major tech entities, with some large-cap names seeing double-digit corrections. However, enterprise software demand remains a pillar of support, with projections suggesting **40%** of applications will integrate task-specific AI agents by the end of the year. Economic Indicators In China, the Renminbi reached a **33-month high** against the dollar, trading near **6.90**. This strength comes despite mixed domestic data, including a Producer Price Index (PPI) decline of **1.4%** and a Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of only **0.2%**, highlighting persistent deflationary risks that may require further government stimulus. Gold and silver markets also showed activity, with silver inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange approaching a **10-year low** of **342.1 tonnes**, indicating robust industrial demand.
Supreme Court permits Aakash Educational Services rights issue
The Supreme Court of India has finalized a critical ruling on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, allowing Aakash Educational Services (AESL) to proceed with its second tranche of a 240 crore INR rights issue. The court has granted Byjuās parent company, Think & Learn (TLPL), exactly one week to subscribe to the shares, setting a final deadline for next Monday, February 24, 2026. This move follows a protracted legal battle where TLPL challenged the fundraising, alleging that it would lead to a significant dilution of its holding. Currently, Aakash is raising 140 crore INR in this second phase to meet operational expenses for its 350,000 students and 10,000 employees. To balance the interests of the bankrupt parent company, the court recorded an assurance from Aakash that 25.75% of Byju's stake will remain secured until the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) makes a final decision. This legal protection is vital as TLPLās shareholding in Aakash had already been reflected as dropping to 10.99% in earlier notices, down from its original 25.75%. The dispute intensified after Aakash previously withheld share allotments to Byju's, citing concerns over the foreign source of funds and potential violations of exchange laws. The broader Indian edtech market continues to show resilience despite these corporate disputes. The sector is projected to reach a valuation of 10.4 billion USD by the end of 2025 and 33.3 billion USD by 2034. Aakash remains a top performer in the test preparation segment, which is growing at a compound annual rate of nearly 28%. The Manipal Group, led by Ranjan Pai, now holds a dominant position in Aakash with an estimated 58% stake. This shift in power occurs as Think & Learn remains under insolvency proceedings, triggered by unpaid dues of 158 crore INR originally owed to the BCCI. Investors are closely monitoring whether Byjuās can arrange the necessary capital from overseas before the Monday deadline to prevent further dilution. The court's ruling ensures that while Aakash gains the liquidity it needs to operate, the underlying asset value for Byjuās creditors remains protected during the insolvency process. [Aakash Rights Issue Dispute](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nX_ey6eADEk) This video provides an in-depth analysis of the high-stakes insolvency battle involving Byju's and Aakash, explaining the roles of key players like the Manipal Group and the impact of the rights issue on the company's valuation. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
Asian Paints Q3 Financial Results and Market Outlook
Asian Paints reported a consolidated net profit of 1,074 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, marking a 4.8% decline year-on-year. This drop was largely attributed to exceptional items totaling 157.6 crore, which included gratuity-related charges and impairment losses on intangible assets. Despite the bottom-line pressure, revenue from operations grew 3.7% to reach 8,867 crore. Market performance as of February 18, 2026, shows the stock trading around 2,437. The stock has faced significant volatility, losing approximately 10% since the January earnings announcement. High-intensity competition from new entrants like Birla Opus and JSW Paints has weighed heavily on investor sentiment, causing the stock to trade well below its 52-week high of 2,986. Operating margins remained a highlight, expanding to 20.1% from 19.2% in the previous year. This improvement was driven by lower raw material costs, with average crude oil prices trending around 69 dollars per barrel. Sourcing efficiencies and cost-control measures have helped the company maintain profitability even as pricing power remains under pressure due to aggressive discounting in the sector. Domestic decorative volumes grew by 8%, a deceleration from the 11% growth seen in the preceding quarter. The slowdown is linked to an extended monsoon and a shorter festive window, which hampered repainting activity. Additionally, a shift in urban discretionary spending toward travel and hospitality has contributed to a more gradual demand recovery in the core paint business. The industrial segment showed resilience, with the AP-PPG joint venture growing 16.5% and the automotive segment rising 16.9%. International business also provided a cushion, reporting a 6.3% revenue increase led by strong performances in the UAE, Ethiopia, and Sri Lanka. The exit from loss-making operations in Indonesia is expected to further stabilize offshore margins. Looking ahead, management has retained its volume growth guidance of 8ā10% for the full fiscal year. The company is betting on market share gains in the waterproofing and home decor segments over the next 12 to 18 months. While the kitchen and bath segments are nearing breakeven, the rise in premium and luxury housing continues to drive demand for high-end construction chemicals. Brokerages have responded by trimming earnings estimates by 1ā3% for the 2026ā2028 period. Current analyst consensus remains cautious, with target prices adjusted downward to reflect the competitive landscape. Success in the near term will depend on the company's ability to maintain its 18ā20% margin corridor while defending its 50% share of the organized market against well-funded rivals.
Pre-Market Analysis: Market Outlook and Trading Setup for the Current Session
Market Brief: Nifty Recovery and Domestic Strength The Indian equity benchmarks demonstrated resilient recovery patterns as of **February 17, 2026**. The **Nifty 50** successfully reclaimed its footing, closing at **25,725.40**, marking a steady gain of **42.65 points** or **0.17%**. This follows a powerful intraday turnaround where the index surged nearly **200 points** from its session lows, effectively snapping a period of brief volatility. Volatility and Sentiment The **India VIX**, often referred to as the "fear gauge," witnessed a significant cool-off. The index dropped by approximately **4.93%** to settle at **12.67**. This decline below the **13** level suggests a substantial reduction in market anxiety and a shift toward calmer trading conditions. Traders are currently eyeing the **26,000** mark as a psychological resistance level, while **25,500** has emerged as a robust immediate support base. Institutional Flow Dynamics Market activity continues to be defined by a "tug of war" between institutional players. Foreign Institutional Investors (**FIIs**) remained net sellers in the cash market, offloading equities worth approximately **972 crore**. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (**DIIs**) acted as a vital cushion, pumping in **1,667 crore**. This consistent domestic support has been instrumental in absorbing foreign outflows and stabilizing the broader indices. Currency and Sector Highlights The Indian Rupee showed strength against the US Dollar, closing at approximately **90.66**. The local currency benefited from a recovery in the secondary markets and a slight dip in global crude oil prices, with **Brent crude** trading near **$67.43** per barrel. * **Top Gainers:** Adani Enterprises (**+2.74%**), ITC (**+2.34%**), and Bharat Electronics (**+1.97%**). * **Sector Performance:** FMCG and Capital Goods led the upward momentum, while the Metal sector faced headwinds due to profit-booking in counters like Hindalco and Tata Steel. The broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as the Nifty maintains its position above the **25,700** threshold. Analysts point to the formation of a bullish candle on the daily charts, suggesting that the momentum remains in favor of the bulls for the upcoming sessions.
Market Update: Maruti Suzuki, Dabur, Info Edge, GR Infraprojects, and Dilip Buildcon in Focus
Indian benchmark indices closed higher on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, as markets successfully navigated expiry day volatility. After an initial period of weakness, the BSE Sensex rose 174 points to settle at 83,450.96. The Nifty 50 followed a similar trajectory, gaining 43 points to end the session at 25,725.40. The recovery was largely driven by a rebound in the IT sector and strong performance in PSU banks. Investor wealth saw a notable increase, with the total market capitalization of BSE-listed firms rising to approximately 470 lakh crore. Corporate Highlights **Maruti Suzuki EV Launch** The automotive major has officially entered the electric vehicle space with the e VITARA. The electric SUV is priced at 10.99 lakh under a Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model. Under this structure, the battery cost is separated from the vehicle price. Owners pay a battery usage fee of 3.99 per kilometer. The vehicle offers two battery options, 49kWh and 61kWh, with a maximum claimed range of 543 km. **Dabur Leadership Shift** Dabur India has announced a strategic management restructuring effective April 15, 2026. Herjit S. Bhalla, formerly of The Hershey Company and Unilever, has been appointed as CEO of the India Business. In tandem, current CEO Mohit Malhotra has been elevated to the role of Global CEO. This move aims to blend Dabur's traditional heritage with global consumer-goods expertise. **Infrastructure Gains** GR Infraprojects continues its momentum in the infrastructure segment. The company recently secured a Letter of Acceptance from West Central Railway for a project valued at 1,897.51 crore. This contract involves the construction of a new railway line in Madhya Pradesh. Additionally, the company has set February 19, 2026, as the record date for its interim dividend for the current fiscal year. Sector and Market Trends * **IT Sector:** Major players like Infosys and HCL Tech led the recovery, gaining between 0.5% and 2%. * **PSU Dividends:** February 18 served as the record date for several high-profile dividends, including Coal India (5.50 per share) and HAL (35 per share). * **Foreign Inflows:** Market sentiment is being supported by a stabilization in FII flows and a cautiously optimistic outlook for GDP growth, projected near 7% for the upcoming cycle. The broader market outperformed the benchmarks, with the BSE SmallCap index rising 0.86%, indicating wide-based participation across sectors.
Banks Permitted to Hedge Gold Price Risk via Overseas Markets
The Reserve Bank of India has introduced a major regulatory shift aimed at modernizing how financial institutions handle gold and currency risks. These reforms, detailed in draft directions issued this week, grant banks significantly more freedom to manage price volatility in international markets. Under the new framework, banks participating in the Gold Monetization Scheme and those authorized to handle forward gold contracts can now hedge their price risk using both exchange-traded and over-the-counter (OTC) products in overseas markets. This move is designed to deepen market liquidity and provide domestic lenders with sophisticated tools to navigate global price swings. **Gold Market Performance** The regulatory update comes during a period of sharp correction in the domestic bullion market. After reaching a peak of **ā¹180,779 per 10 grams** in late January, gold prices have cooled significantly following the 2026-27 Union Budget and a stronger U.S. dollar. * **24K Gold:** Currently trading near **ā¹156,430 per 10 grams** in major metros like Delhi and Mumbai. * **22K Gold:** Retail rates have settled around **ā¹143,390 per 10 grams**. * **Silver:** Witnessing higher volatility, closing near **ā¹260,000 per kg**, down from earlier highs of **ā¹380,000**. Analysts note that while prices have dropped approximately **15%** from their record highs, the market remains in a consolidation phase. The RBIās new hedging rules are expected to help banks offer more stable pricing to consumers by offsetting these sharp intraday movements. **Rupee Derivatives and Global Integration** A core pillar of the RBI proposal is the expansion of Rupee-based derivative contracts. Authorized Dealer Category-I banks will now be required to report all foreign exchange derivative transactions involving the Rupee undertaken by their related parties globally. This reporting mandate aims to eliminate "blind spots" in the offshore market, ensuring that price discovery remains transparent and consistent across onshore and offshore platforms. Furthermore, the RBI is moving toward a **24-hour trading** mindset. Banks may now execute trades across approved offshore electronic venues and international financial centers, allowing Indian participants to tap into global liquidity pools outside traditional domestic hours. **Operational Freedom and Risk Safeguards** The central bank is also easing the way banks use their idle foreign currency. New provisions allow lenders to: * Place surplus funds overnight or invest in short-dated overseas government paper. * Extend loans in both Rupee and foreign currency at home or abroad. * Engage in non-deliverable derivative contracts (NDDCs) with offshore counterparties. To maintain stability, the RBI has capped certain activities. For instance, when using option-based hedging products, banks must ensure there is **no net receipt of premium**. Additionally, new credit rules effective **April 1, 2026**, will mandate **100% collateral** for bank funding to market intermediaries, reducing systemic leverage. These combined measures represent a strategic push to integrate Indiaās financial markets with the global economy while strengthening the internal risk management frameworks of the banking sector.
Indian IT Market Outlook: Brokerage Growth Projections and Sector Forecast
The Indian IT sector is currently navigating a significant structural reset as the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) challenges long-standing business models. Market sentiment has been volatile, reflected in a sharp correction of the Nifty IT index, which has declined approximately 15% over the past month and nearly 30% from its recent peak. This sell-off, often described as an "AI scare," resulted in a combined market value loss of 56 billion USD across the sector earlier this February. Brokerage firms Nomura and UBS suggest that while the transition is painful, the market may be overreacting to the immediate threats. Nomura characterizes the current downturn as a "front-loading of pain," where investors are pricing in the decline of legacy service models before the benefits of new AI-driven revenue streams are fully realized. The industry is seeing a fundamental shift in how services are priced and delivered. Traditional time-and-material billing is under pressure from automated efficiency, leading to a rise in outcome-based contracts and risk-sharing models. To defend their long-term value, companies are increasingly moving toward non-linear growth, focusing on proprietary platforms and AI-integrated intellectual property. Key market indicators as of mid-February 2026: The Nifty IT index recently hovered around the 32,738 level, showing signs of stabilization after a two-week rout. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) saw its market capitalization dip below the 10 lakh crore INR mark, trading near 2,755 INR. Despite the pressure, TCS reported 17.3% quarterly growth in AI services, reaching an annualized revenue run rate of 1.8 billion USD. Infosys is trading at approximately 1,365 INR, with a forward revenue guidance of 0% to 3% for the fiscal year. The company is currently managing over 2,500 Generative AI projects. Wipro and HCL Technologies have faced similar pressures, with Wipro trading around 213 INR and HCL Tech near 1,461 INR. Valuations for these heavyweights are now reaching attractive levels, trading at a 12% to 39% discount compared to their five-year averages. High free cash flows and steady dividend yields, currently ranging between 4% and 5%, are expected to provide a firm floor for stock prices. Operational focus has shifted toward workforce transformation. Major players have already begun upskilling at scale; TCS alone has trained over 350,000 employees in AI capabilities. Analysts believe that firms successfully bridging the "AI adoption gap" for global clients will be the primary beneficiaries of the next growth cycle. While traditional application maintenanceāwhich accounts for nearly one-third of industry revenueāfaces a potential 10% to 12% dent over the next few years, the emergence of sovereign AI infrastructure and large-scale data center investments in India offers a new frontier. Government initiatives and partnerships, such as the recent collaboration between TCS and AMD on AI infrastructure, highlight a pivot toward high-capacity hardware and sovereign cloud solutions.
Leverage and Low Base Effect Drive Q3 Brokerage Recovery
Market Brief: Indian Financial Intermediaries Q3 FY26 Indian stockbroking and exchange operations reached a major inflection point in the third quarter of fiscal year **2026**. Record-breaking trading volumes and high-leverage participation across derivatives drove a massive surge in profitability. Exchange Performance Highlights **BSE Limited** reported a standout performance for the quarter ending December **2025**. Consolidated net profit skyrocketed by **174.7%** year-on-year, reaching **ā¹596.6 crore**. Total consolidated income for the exchange climbed to **ā¹1,334 crore**, up from **ā¹829.4 crore** in the previous year. This growth was fueled by a **86%** jump in transaction-led revenue, which hit **ā¹952.6 crore**. The **National Stock Exchange (NSE)** showed a strong recovery after a volatile start to the fiscal year. Net profit for the quarter rose **15%** sequentially to **ā¹2,408 crore**. While yearly comparisons remained under pressure, a **15%** growth in equity options volumes signaled a return of retail momentum. Broking and Participation Trends Retail participation remains a primary growth engine. Registered investors on the **BSE** have now reached **23.8 crore**. The average daily notional turnover in equity options on the exchange hit **ā¹210 lakh crore**, effectively doubling from the **ā¹105 lakh crore** recorded in the same period last year. Major broking houses are seeing mixed results as operational costs rise. **Angel One** reported a slight **4.5%** dip in net profit to **ā¹268.7 crore**, despite a **5.8%** rise in revenue. Broking firms are increasingly relying on interest income from margin funding and high-volume leveraged trades to offset rising client acquisition costs. Primary Market and Corporate Services The IPO sector maintained its historic pace. During the quarter, **99** new equity listings were completed across mainboard and SME platforms, collectively raising **ā¹97,657 crore**. Exchange revenue from services to corporates remained a stable pillar, contributing **ā¹156.4 crore** for **BSE**. This recurring income provides a crucial buffer against the cyclical volatility of the cash market. Key Financial Indicators * **BSE Net Profit Margin:** Expanded to **45%** from **26%** last year. * **NSE EBITDA Margin:** Recovered to **73%** in Q3. * **IPO Capital Raised (2025):** Reached a record **ā¹1.76 lakh crore**. * **Total PSB Profits:** Public sector banks saw an **18%** profit jump to **ā¹52,603 crore**, further supporting market liquidity. Market infrastructure institutions are currently benefiting from high operating leverage. As trading volumes pass critical thresholds, incremental revenue is converting into profit at an accelerated rate. Increased activity in currency derivatives and mutual fund processing platforms continues to diversify the income mix for the sector.
India Inc Projected to Raise $100 Billion Following RBI Relaxation of ECB Norms
In a significant move to bolster the investment landscape, the Reserve Bank of India has overhauled the External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) framework as of February 2026. This policy shift is designed to expand the capital pool for Indian corporations, potentially unlocking up to $100 billion in overseas funding for the 2026-27 period. The central bank has increased the individual borrowing limit to $1 billion or 300% of a companyās net worth, whichever is higher. This is a substantial rise from the previous annual cap of $750 million. The new regulations also simplify eligibility, allowing any non-individual entity incorporated under Central or State Acts to access global debt markets. Pricing restrictions have been largely dismantled. The RBI has removed the rigid all-in-cost ceiling, allowing interest rates on new borrowings to be determined by market conditions. For fixed-rate loans, the benchmark is now tied to the floating rate plus a corresponding swap spread. This change is expected to lower the cost of capital for high-rated issuers and provide better alignment with global credit cycles. End-use permissions have been dramatically expanded. For the first time, ECB proceeds can be utilized for land acquisition, township development, and commercial construction. Companies undergoing restructuring or insolvency resolution are also now eligible to raise funds via the ECB route, providing a critical lifeline for stressed assets. Maturity norms have been rationalized to support varying business cycles. While a minimum average maturity of 3 years remains the standard, manufacturing firms can now raise up to $150 million with shorter maturities of 1 to 3 years. This provides necessary flexibility for managing working capital and short-term operational needs. The broader macroeconomic environment supports this liberalization. Indiaās foreign exchange reserves stood at $717.6 billion as of early February 2026, providing a robust buffer against external volatility. With the domestic repo rate held at 5.25%, the removal of ECB cost caps allows Indian firms to arbitrage global liquidity more effectively. Operational compliance has been streamlined through the removal of the requirement for Authorised Dealer banks to maintain specific current accounts for ECB transactions. Reporting timelines have also been updated to reduce the administrative burden on corporate treasuries, making the process of raising offshore debt faster and more efficient for large-scale expansions and acquisitions.
Gold and silver prices decline amid subdued physical demand
Precious Metals Market Update: February 2026 Gold and silver markets have entered a sharp corrective phase this month, following record-breaking speculative surges in January. While prices remain high by historical standards, recent sessions have seen a significant retreat as global liquidity shifts. Gold Performance and Domestic Rates Gold prices in India have slipped nearly **16%** over the past fortnight. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), April futures settled near **ā¹1.55 lakh** per 10 grams, down from recent peaks of **ā¹1.80 lakh**. In local retail markets, 24-carat gold is currently trading at approximately **ā¹15,420** per gram. The 22-carat variant, commonly used for jewelry, has adjusted to roughly **ā¹14,135** per gram. This correction has been accelerated by a stronger US dollar and a decrease in safe-haven buying. Silverās Volatility and Correction Silver has experienced a much more dramatic downturn, plunging **38%** from its January highs. After briefly touching an all-time record of **ā¹4.04 lakh** per kilogram on January 29, prices have now retreated to the **ā¹2.33 lakh** to **ā¹2.60 lakh** range. The white metal's sharp decline is attributed to the unwinding of heavy speculative positions and a "liquidity vacuum" caused by the Lunar New Year holidays in Chinaāa major hub for silver demand. Internationally, spot silver is trading near **$74.50** per ounce. Consumer Sentiment and Wedding Demand Despite these double-digit percentage drops, retail buyers remain largely on the sidelines. Market reports indicate that store footfalls have increased, but actual transactions are predominantly limited to essential wedding purchases. Many consumers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating that prices may decline further before stabilizing. While lightweight jewelry is seeing some movement, high-end luxury purchases have slowed as the market searches for a definitive floor. Global Triggers and Short-Term Outlook Several macroeconomic factors are currently weighing on precious metals: * **Liquidity:** Major Asian markets, including China and South Korea, remain closed for holiday periods, reducing overall trading volume. * **Currency:** The US Dollar Index has strengthened to **104.50**, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for international buyers. * **Geopolitics:** Preliminary reports of diplomatic discussions in Geneva have slightly eased the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported higher prices. Analysts expect volatility to persist through late February. Support levels for gold are currently eyed near **ā¹1.52 lakh**, while silver is expected to test the **ā¹2.28 lakh** mark if the current bearish momentum continues.
SEC Proposes Reduced Executive Compensation Disclosure Requirements
Major regulatory shifts are underway at the Securities and Exchange Commission as the agency moves to simplify the "Frankenstein patchwork" of executive pay disclosure rules. Under Chairman Paul Atkins, the regulator is pivoting toward a principles-based regime designed to reduce compliance costs and eliminate "information overload" for investors. The proposed reforms aim to scale back the volume of data public companies must provide about their top earners. Central to this initiative is a retrospective review of Item 402 of Regulation S-K. Officials have signaled a desire to move away from prescriptive, formula-driven tables in favor of narratives that focus on "material" financial information. Key changes currently under consideration include: **Streamlining Compensation Tables** The SEC is evaluating the consolidation of overlapping tables, specifically the Summary Compensation Table (SCT). One high-priority proposal would merge target pay opportunities with realized outcomes, giving investors a clearer view of whether pay actually aligns with performance. **Raising Disclosure Thresholds** Regulators are looking to increase the **$10,000** aggregate threshold for disclosing perquisites. This move would likely exclude specific executive security costs from mandatory reporting, reflecting a shift in how "business-oriented" security is classified versus personal benefits. **Reducing the "Named Executive" Pool** Pending reforms could clarify and potentially narrow the definitions of "executive officer" and "policy-making function." This would reduce the number of top-tier managers subject to full public disclosure, currently required for the CEO, CFO, and the three other highest-paid officers. **Dodd-Frank Rollbacks** Specific focus is being placed on the "CEO Pay Ratio" and "Pay-Versus-Performance" (PvP) rules. These mandates are viewed by the current commission as overly burdensome. The PvP rule alone requires complex Black-Scholes and Monte Carlo valuations that many argue provide limited utility to the average shareholder. **Small Business Relief** The SEC plans to expand "IPO onramps" and adjust public-float thresholds. These adjustments would allow more mid-sized and emerging companies to qualify for scaled disclosure, shielding them from the heavy reporting requirements typically reserved for large-cap corporations. While the exact timeline for formal rulemaking remains in development, the Commission has already conducted public roundtables to gather industry feedback. Analysts expect the most significant overhaul of compensation reporting since **2006** to materialize throughout **2026**. The broader market impact is expected to be a shift from "compliance-heavy" reporting to a more strategic communication model. Companies are encouraged to begin documenting business justifications for executive benefits now, as the regulator moves toward a framework that emphasizes "plain-English" clarity over technical density.
US Stocks: Fed's Goolsbee Indicates Potential Rate Cuts Contingent on Inflation Progress
CHICAGO FED SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE 2026 RATE CUTS Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve could implement several more interest rate reductions this year. This path depends on inflation resuming its steady decline toward the central bankās 2.4% target. Recent data shows the annual inflation rate slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, down from 2.7% in previous months. While this marks the lowest level since May, policymakers remain cautious as services inflation is described as not yet tamed. The federal funds rate currently sits at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% following a pause in January. Markets are pricing in a 90% probability that rates will remain steady at the next meeting on March 18, 2026. Price pressures have eased notably in the energy sector, with gasoline prices falling 7.5% in the latest report. However, food prices remain up 3.1% and natural gas has surged nearly 10%, keeping overall costs elevated for consumers. Goolsbee downplayed recent volatility in consumer price reports, noting that headline figures can be masked by strong service price increases. He emphasized that the Fed needs more evidence of a clear path to its target before moving forward. The labor market remains a key factor in these deliberations. The unemployment rate has stabilized around 4.4%, with January seeing a headline gain of 130,000 jobs. Fed officials view the current economic expansion as solid but are monitoring signs of softening in the tech and manufacturing sectors. A split remains within the central bank. Two governors dissented at the last meeting, favoring an immediate cut to support the labor market. This internal tension suggests that while a pause is the current stance, the door remains open for a pivot later in the year. Investors are now looking toward the March 17-18 meeting for updated economic projections. The "measured and gradual" approach signaled by leadership implies that further easing will likely be back-loaded toward the second half of 2026. [Goolsbee on Rate Cuts](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDznxjCuQWY) This video provides the original interview where Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee details the conditions required for several interest rate cuts in 2026. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
eToro Profit Surpasses Estimates Amid Strong Market Activity
eToro has surpassed profit expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025, signaling a period of robust growth and strategic evolution for the Nasdaq-listed platform. The company posted a record net profit of $69 million for the quarter, a sharp climb from previous years, and reported total annual revenue of $868 million for 2025. This 10% year-over-year revenue increase highlights the platformās resilience despite fluctuating volatility in the digital asset sector. Market activity was a primary driver of these results, with net trading income from equities, commodities, and currencies jumping 43% to $115.6 million. This surge was fueled by a significant shift in investor behavior. CEO Yoni Assia noted a "convergence of investment strategies" as crypto-native users began diversifying into traditional commodities like gold and silver. This rotation occurred as investors sought higher volatility in commodities while the crypto market experienced a cooling period in late 2025. Assets under administration (AUA) reached $18.5 billion at the end of December 2025, marking an 11% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Although AUA dipped slightly from the $20.8 billion peak seen in September 2025, the number of funded accounts grew by 9% year-over-year to reach 3.81 million. This steady growth in user base and managed capital underscores the platform's expanding footprint across Europe and the UK, which remains its largest market. The platform's financial stability is further evidenced by its Adjusted EBITDA, which rose 11% to $87 million in the final quarter. This performance allowed the Board to approve a $100 million increase to its share repurchase program, bringing the total remaining authorization to $150 million. Such a move reflects confidence in the company's "financial super-app" strategy and its ability to maintain a healthy operating margin, which currently stands at 38%. Operational highlights from late 2025 include the successful rollout of extended 24/5 trading for all S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stocks. The company is now moving toward 24/7 access for popular assets, aiming to bridge the gap between traditional capital markets and the always-on nature of crypto. With over 12,000 tradable assets currently available, eToro plans to expand this offering to 100,000 assets by the end of 2026. As of early 2026, the company holds $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents with zero outstanding debt. This strong liquidity position, combined with a 68% year-over-year increase in money transfer volumes via eToro Money, suggests a growing "flywheel" effect where users engage with the platform for both active trading and long-term wealth management.
Market Outlook: 10 Key Factors for Wednesday's Trading Action
Market Brief: Indian Equities Extend Gains Indian benchmark indices concluded Tuesday, February 17, 2026, with a second consecutive session of growth. The **Nifty 50** settled at **25,725.40**, gaining **42.65 points**, while the **S&P BSE Sensex** rose by **173.81 points** to close at **83,450.96**. The trading day began with initial weakness as benchmarks dropped over **100 points** in early hours. However, a sharp mid-session recovery, supported by heavyweights like **ITC (up 2.34%)** and **Infosys (up 1.88%)**, turned the tide. Technical Resistance and Support The Nifty continues to face significant hurdles near its **50-day moving average (50DMA)**, currently positioned around **25,750 to 25,800**. While the index reached an intraday high of **25,764**, it struggled to maintain levels above this technical ceiling. Support for the Nifty has shifted higher to the **25,570 ā 25,600** zone. Technical analysts suggest that as long as the index holds above **25,400**, the broader structure remains positive for a "buy-on-dips" strategy. Volatility and Institutional Flows Market sentiment was bolstered by a sharp decline in the **India VIX**, which dropped **4.93%** to settle at **12.67**. This easing of volatility indicates a reduction in near-term fear and supports rangebound upward movement. Institutional activity remains a tug-of-war. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) acted as primary stabilizers with net purchases of **1,666.98 crore**, whereas Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading equities worth **972.13 crore**. Sectoral Performance and Macro Outlook The rally was primarily driven by the **PSU Bank**, **IT**, and **FMCG** sectors. Financial services also saw selective interest, though **Metal** and **Realty** indices faced selling pressure, slipping by **1%** and **0.3%** respectively. Economic data provided a stable backdrop. Indiaās retail inflation for January 2026 was recorded at **2.75%** under the new **2024 base year** series. This figure remains well within the Reserve Bank of Indiaās tolerance band, reinforcing expectations of a status quo on interest rates in the near term. Trade data for January showed exports reaching **$80.45 billion**, a **13.17%** year-on-year increase. However, imports rose faster at **18.76%**, totaling **$90.83 billion**, which widened the merchandise trade gap. Looking Ahead Market participants are focusing on the **25,800** level for the Nifty. A decisive breakout above this resistance could trigger short-covering, potentially pushing the index toward **26,000**. Conversely, failure to breach this level may lead to consolidation within the **25,500 ā 25,800** range. Global factors, including the **$68.37** per barrel price for Brent crude and stable US bond yields, are expected to influence the opening of the next session.