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India Targets $19.7 Billion via State-Run Firm IPOs by 2030
India is accelerating its transition toward a high-efficiency economy with the launch of the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) 2.0. This second phase, spanning from fiscal year 2026 to 2030, sets an ambitious target to generate 16.72 trillion rupees. This figure represents a massive 2.6-fold increase over the previous pipeline, underscoring the government's aggressive push to unlock value from existing brownfield infrastructure. Approximately 5.8 trillion rupees of this total is expected to come from private sector investments. A critical component of this drive is the 1.79 trillion rupees (approximately $19.7 billion) earmarked for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of state-run firms by 2030. The railways sector leads this effort, with plans to divest stakes in seven companies to raise 837 billion rupees. For the upcoming 2026-27 fiscal year alone, the government targets 170 billion rupees from new market listings. The power sector is another heavy lifter, with 310 billion rupees projected from the listing of various subsidiaries. This includes high-profile units like NTPC Green Energy, which is preparing for a significant market entry to fund its 60-GW renewable energy target. Coal India and NLC India are also expected to contribute 483 billion rupees through the public offering of their subsidiaries and green energy assets. Beyond energy and transport, the aviation and petroleum sectors are key pillars of the plan. The Airports Authority of India is scheduled to sell stakes in its subsidiaries and joint ventures, while GAIL GAS is positioned for a 31 billion rupee listing in the 2027-28 window. These moves are designed to shift public enterprises from traditional state management to a "value creation" model. The momentum is supported by a surge in the PSU sector's market performance. The combined market capitalization of listed public firms has soared from 12 trillion rupees in 2020 to nearly 69 trillion rupees as of early 2026. This growth, driven by cleaner balance sheets and improved corporate governance, now accounts for roughly 15% of India’s total equity market value. Investors are keeping a close watch on these developments as the government simplifies processes to make asset monetisation seamless. By reinvesting these proceeds into the National Infrastructure Pipeline, the state aims to maintain a real growth rate near 7% while modernizing core sectors without increasing fiscal strain.
AI Disruption Concerns Impact Debt Financing and US Software Equity Performance
Software companies are entering a period of significant financial recalibration as of February 2026. Higher borrowing costs and intensified lender scrutiny have led many firms to delay or abandon debt fundraising efforts. The software sector is currently facing a sharp divide. While the broader tech industry reached record debt issuance levels in 2025, representing 16.7% of global non-financial corporate bonds, smaller and riskier software firms are hitting a wall. Lenders are increasingly concerned that rapid AI advancements could dismantle existing software-as-a-service (SaaS) business models. This anxiety is manifesting in credit spreads, which have widened by 20 to 50 basis points for software names in recent weeks. Market data shows that approximately 50% of software sector loans now carry B- or lower credit ratings. This concentration of high-risk debt has made lenders cautious, with many demanding stricter covenants and higher yields to protect against potential AI-driven defaults. The "maturity wall" is becoming a critical focus. While only 0.5% of software loans are due for refinancing in 2026, that figure jumps to 6% in 2027 and peaks in 2028. This upcoming surge is forcing companies to preserve cash now rather than seeking new credit in an expensive market. Interest rates for business loans remain elevated, with average rates ranging from 10.75% to 22.50% depending on credit quality. These high costs are particularly difficult for software firms whose products are perceived as easily replicable by new AI coding agents. The private credit market, which holds an estimated $600 billion to $750 billion in software exposure, is under localized strain. This has led to a noticeable slowdown in new financing deals as firms wait for market stability and clearer signs of which business models will survive the AI shift. In contrast, "hyperscalers" and massive infrastructure providers are borrowing heavily to fund AI development, raising over $121 billion in 2025 alone. This massive capital absorption by top-tier firms is further crowding out smaller software borrowers. For mid-sized and smaller software entities, the current strategy is one of "wait and see." Management teams are prioritizing operational efficiency over debt-fueled growth, aiming to strengthen balance sheets before the 2027 refinancing cycle begins.
MobiKwik Shares Rise 13% Following BSE Approval for Stock Broking Subsidiary
MobiKwik Market Brief: February 24, 2026 **MobiKwik** shares experienced a significant surge today, climbing as much as **12.6%** to reach an intraday high of **227.37** on the NSE. This rally follows a pivotal regulatory milestone for the fintech firm’s expansion into broader financial services. Strategic Expansion into Stockbroking The primary catalyst for today's price action is the formal approval from the **Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)** for MobiKwik's wholly-owned subsidiary, **MobiKwik Securities Broking Private Limited**, to commence stockbroking operations. Effective today, **February 24, 2026**, the subsidiary is authorized to facilitate the buying, selling, and settlement of equity trades. This move follows the initial registration granted by **SEBI** in July 2025 and positions MobiKwik to compete directly with established wealth-tech platforms. Financial Turnaround and Valuation The company recently reported a move toward profitability, a key shift for its long-term market sentiment. For the quarter ending December 31, 2025 (**Q3 FY26**), MobiKwik recorded: * **Net Profit (PAT):** 40.48 million, reversing a major loss from the previous year. * **Total Income:** 2,972.20 million, marking an **8%** year-on-year increase. * **Payments GMV:** Hit an all-time high of **481 billion**. * **UPI Transactions:** Grew **3.2x** year-on-year. Despite the recent **13%** surge, the stock continues to trade significantly below its historical levels. The current price near **217** remains well under the initial IPO price band of **265 – 279** and the 2024 listing debut price of approximately **442**. Market Context and Outlook The broader fintech sector in early 2026 is shifting focus from pure user acquisition to high-margin financial services. MobiKwik's entry into stockbroking aligns with this industry-wide trend toward **WealthTech** and credit distribution. While the stock has declined roughly **35%** over the past year, today's volume spike—with over **10 million** shares traded on the NSE alone—indicates renewed investor interest following the completion of these regulatory steps. The company currently maintains a market capitalization of approximately **1,650 crore**, with management focusing on a "risk-first" approach to digital lending and sustainable margin expansion in its new broking vertical.
India's 7.4% GDP Growth and Its Implications for Investors
India's economy continues to demonstrate significant resilience, with the government projecting a real GDP growth rate of **7.4%** for the fiscal year 2025-26. This trajectory positions India as the world's fastest-growing major economy, supported by a nominal GDP growth forecast of **8%** to **8.7%**. Sector-specific performance highlights a surge in the services sector, which is expected to grow by **9.1%**, while manufacturing is gaining momentum with a projected **7%** expansion. These figures are bolstered by high-impact infrastructure and construction growth, recently recorded at **10.5%**. The inflation landscape has shifted favorably for corporate stability. Retail inflation (CPI) dropped to a multi-year low of **3.34%** in early 2025, while the Reserve Bank of India maintains a target of **4.2%** for the upcoming fiscal year. Wholesale inflation (WPI) has entered negative territory at **-1.21%**, significantly lowering input costs for businesses. Corporate earnings are entering a recovery phase following a period of moderation. The corporate profit-to-GDP ratio hit a 17-year high of **4.7%**, with listed companies reaching **5.1%**. Market analysts expect a double-digit earnings growth of **13%** to **16%** for the 2025-26 period, driven by festive demand and operational efficiencies. Foreign investment sentiment is rebounding after a period of heavy selling. In early February 2026, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers, infusing over **₹33,487 crore** in a single fortnight. This shift is largely attributed to a landmark interim trade agreement with the US and a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU. The India-US trade framework aims to eliminate tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods, while the EU deal provides preferential access for **99%** of Indian exports. These strategic alliances, combined with a **$100 billion** investment commitment from the EFTA, are expected to create a more integrated and competitive industrial base. Equity markets reflect this cautious optimism, with the Nifty 50 recently stabilizing above the **25,700** mark. While global uncertainties regarding international tariff policies persist, India’s domestic fundamentals—characterized by easing core inflation and robust capital expenditure—provide a strong foundation for long-term growth. [India Market Trends 2025](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNKn9Fosuj4) This video provides an expert breakdown of the latest Economic Survey and GDP data to help understand the current drivers of India's growth. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
Mayuresh Joshi on HAL Correction and Emerging Midcap IT Opportunities Amid AI Disruption
Market Brief: Defence, IT, and Banking Outlook Recent market activity highlights a significant divergence between fundamental value and investor sentiment across key sectors. While the defence sector faces short-term volatility, midcap IT continues to leverage technological shifts, and the banking sector navigates fresh regulatory and operational hurdles. Defence: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Investors are advised to maintain patience with HAL as the stock undergoes a period of price correction. Despite a robust order book of approximately **₹1,89,300 crore** providing revenue visibility through 2032, the share price has recently faced pressure. The stock touched an intraday low of **₹4,037** in late February 2026, marking a decline of over **13%** from its recent highs. This movement is largely attributed to sentiment shifts regarding future aircraft bidding processes and general profit-booking at current valuations. However, the company’s Q3 FY26 financials remain strong: * Revenue: **₹8,612.6 crore** (Up **11%** YoY) * Net Profit: **₹1,866.7 crore** (Up **29.65%** YoY) * Interim Dividend: **₹35 per share** Current valuations show a P/E ratio around **30.25**, which warrants caution for fresh entry. While the long-term outlook remains supported by the "Aatmanirbhar Bharat" initiative, short-term technical indicators suggest a bearish trend as the stock trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Midcap IT: AI-Driven Growth The IT sector presents selective opportunities in midcap players that have successfully pivoted toward artificial intelligence and next-gen mobility. **KPIT Technologies** reported Q3 revenue of **₹1,617 crore**, a **9.4%** year-on-year increase. The company is transitioning its strategy from Software-Defined Vehicles to "AI-Defined Mobility," embedding AI across the vehicle software lifecycle. Despite a recent net profit dip to **₹133 crore** due to one-time labour code charges, it remains a key player in the automotive technology space. **Mphasis** and **Datamatics** continue to see sustained interest as they integrate generative AI into enterprise workflows. Mphasis recorded Q2 FY26 revenue of **$406.2 million**, with its AI-led pipeline now accounting for nearly **65%** of its total deal flow. These firms are benefiting from a broader market trend where Indian IT is projected to grow its AI-related revenue contribution from **15%** to **20%** by the end of the fiscal year. Banking: IDFC First Bank IDFC First Bank is currently in a "trust repair" phase following significant operational headwinds. On February 23, 2026, the stock tumbled to a **20%** lower circuit, reaching **₹66.85**, after the bank disclosed suspected fraudulent transactions worth approximately **₹590 crore** at a regional branch. This event has rattled investor confidence, necessitating regulatory clarity before fresh exposure is recommended. While the bank had previously seen a **24%** price return over the last year, this recent shock has placed the stock roughly **23%** below its 52-week high of **₹87**. Investors should monitor the reconciliation process of the identified accounts. Fresh positions require a stabilized environment and a clear signal from regulators regarding internal control assessments. At a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of **1.82**, the bank's valuation remains under scrutiny compared to its private-sector peers.
Gaudium IVF IPO: GMP, Subscription Status, and Analysis
Gaudium IVF and Women Health Limited has concluded its public offering with significant momentum, as the subscription window closed on February 24, 2026. The initial public offering, valued at 165 crore, saw a surge in interest during the final hours of bidding. Total subscription levels reached 3 times on the penultimate day, eventually strengthening as retail and non-institutional participants dominated the book. The grey market premium for the issue has settled at approximately 5 per share. Based on the upper price band of 79, market observers estimate a listing price near 84, representing a potential 6.33% debut gain. This follows a period of volatile sentiment where premiums reached as high as 11% earlier in the bidding cycle. The IPO structure consists of a fresh issue of 90 crore and an offer-for-sale of 75 crore. The company intends to deploy 50 crore of the proceeds to establish 19 new IVF centers across India over the next three years. An additional 20 crore is earmarked for the repayment or prepayment of outstanding debt, aiming to further strengthen a balance sheet that already shows a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38. Financial performance for the 2025 fiscal year highlights a robust growth trajectory. Revenue rose to 70.72 crore, marking a significant jump from 47.89 crore in the previous year. Net profit also saw a sharp increase, reaching 19.13 crore compared to 10.32 crore in 2024. The company maintains an EBITDA margin of 40.48% and a return on equity of 21.25%, though these figures have moderated slightly from previous peaks. Operating via a hub-and-spoke model, the company currently manages 7 hubs and 28 spokes across India. This positioning is strategic, as the domestic fertility services market is projected to expand from 1.81 billion USD in 2025 to over 9 billion USD by 2035. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 17.5%, driven by rising infertility rates and increasing awareness of assisted reproductive technologies. The allotment process is scheduled for completion on February 25, 2026. Shares are expected to be credited to demat accounts by February 26, followed by the official listing on the BSE and NSE on February 27, 2026. This marks a milestone as the first pure-play fertility services provider to join the Indian mainboard exchange.
BPCL Shares in Focus Following ₹1,817 Crore Excise Demand Order
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) is currently navigating a significant regulatory challenge following a massive excise duty demand. The Commissioner of Central Tax and Central Excise, Kochi, has issued an order seeking a total of **Rs 1,816.65 crore**. This financial demand is broken down into a primary excise duty of **Rs 476.94 crore**, a substantial interest component of **Rs 1,339.70 crore**, and a penalty of **Rs 95,000**. The dispute centers on historical valuation issues related to the Kochi Refinery, primarily covering the period between September 2004 and May 2010. BPCL has officially stated that it is reviewing the order and intends to challenge the decision by filing an appeal before the Customs, Excise and Service Tax Appellate Tribunal (CESTAT). The company maintains that the demand arises from a disagreement over "related person" transactions and pricing methodologies used during that period. In the equity markets, BPCL shares have shown resilience despite the news. As of February 24, 2026, the stock is trading near **Rs 372.10**, reflecting a daily gain of approximately **1.58%**. The company’s market capitalization remains robust at approximately **Rs 1.62 lakh crore**. Technically, the stock has delivered a strong one-year return of over **45%**, significantly outperforming broader indices. Current market sentiment remains largely positive, with nearly **71%** of analysts maintaining a "Buy" rating. Investors are closely watching the company’s gross refining margins (GRM), which recently stood at a healthy **$10.78 per barrel** in the latest quarterly reports. The broader energy sector is currently influenced by fluctuating global crude prices. Brent crude is hovering around **$67–$71 per barrel**. While rising oil prices typically pressure the margins of oil marketing companies, BPCL’s efficient treasury management and lower debt levels—down to **Rs 12,262 crore**—provide a solid buffer against market volatility. India’s refining landscape continues to expand, with national capacity reaching **258.1 MMTPA** for the current fiscal year. As the world’s fastest-growing oil consumer, India's demand for petroleum products is projected to reach **5.99 million barrels per day** by 2026. Stakeholders are advised to monitor the upcoming CESTAT proceedings, as the outcome of the Rs 1,816 crore appeal could impact the company’s future dividend distributions and liquidity. For now, the operational strength of BPCL’s Mumbai, Kochi, and Bina refineries continues to support its leadership position in the energy market.
Waaree Energies Secures 500 MW Solar Module Supply Order
Waaree Energies has reinforced its market leadership by securing a significant 500 MW solar module supply order from a domestic Independent Power Producer. The contract is scheduled for execution during the 2026-27 financial year, further strengthening a robust order book that currently stands at approximately ₹60,000 crore. The company is aggressively diversifying its portfolio with a planned capital expenditure of ₹8,000 crore to ₹10,000 crore. A major portion of this investment is dedicated to a greenfield gigafactory in Andhra Pradesh, aimed at scaling battery storage capacity from 3.5 GWh to 20 GWh. This facility will integrate the production of lithium-ion cells, battery packs, and grid-scale storage systems. Financial performance for the latest quarter shows exceptional growth, with consolidated net profit more than doubling to ₹1,106 crore, up from ₹507 crore in the same period last year. Revenue followed a similar trajectory, surging 118% to reach ₹7,565 crore. These gains were driven by record module production and a significant increase in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) business revenues. Profitability metrics remain strong as the company benefits from higher operating leverage. Operating EBITDA for the third quarter rose 167% year-on-year to ₹1,928 crore, with EBITDA margins improving to 25.5%. Waaree recently achieved a milestone as the first Indian manufacturer to exceed 1 GW of module production and sales in a single month. The broader sector backdrop is equally supportive. India added a record 44.5 GW of renewable capacity in 2025, with solar accounting for nearly 35 GW of that growth. While global module prices have stabilized between $0.08 and $0.11 per watt, the shift toward high-efficiency TOPCon technology and domestic manufacturing incentives continues to drive demand. With a current market capitalization of approximately ₹83,260 crore, Waaree Energies is positioned as a primary beneficiary of India’s energy transition. The company’s integrated approach—spanning solar modules, green hydrogen, and advanced battery storage—aligns with national targets to reduce import dependency and secure energy infrastructure.
Nifty Outlook: Metals and PSU Banks Expected to Lead Potential Recovery, Says Alchemy Capital’
Market Brief: Indian Equities Reset Indian equities are navigating a decisive transition following a rigorous **1.5-year consolidation** phase. Recent price action suggests the bulk of the market correction is now complete, with the Nifty 50 stabilizing around the **25,700** level and the BSE Sensex holding firm near **83,300**. Compressed valuations and targeted policy interventions are driving this recovery. The market has effectively absorbed the impact of a **15%** correction in the Nifty 500 from previous peaks. Current sentiment is bolstered by a resilient GDP growth projection of **7.4%** for FY26 and a multi-decade low in gross non-performing assets at **2.2%**. Sector Performance and Leadership The current market phase is characterized by a rotation toward domestic-economy-linked sectors. High-frequency indicators show a clear shift in leadership: **Public Sector Banks (PSBs)** State-run lenders have emerged as top performers, with the PSU Bank index gaining **12%** since the start of 2026. Heavyweights like State Bank of India are reporting record quarterly profits exceeding **21,000 crore**, supported by robust credit demand and improved asset quality. **Metals and Mining** The metal sector is rebounding on the back of resilient global pricing and domestic infrastructure demand. Primary steel producers recorded a **9%** year-on-year increase in sales volumes, reaching **21 million tonnes**. Large-scale capacity expansions and anti-dumping duties on steel imports are providing significant margin tailwinds. **Financials and Capital Markets** The financial services sector saw a sharp turnaround in February, attracting over **6,000 crore** in fresh inflows. Regional private banks and capital market players are benefiting from improving earnings breadth and a revival in retail participation. Capital Flows and Economic Anchors Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have transitioned to net buyers in February 2026, infusing more than **33,000 crore** into the market. This marks a significant reversal from the massive **1.66 lakh crore** outflow recorded in 2025. Stability is further supported by India's record forex reserves, which have climbed to **$725.7 billion**. Inflation remains managed within a comfortable range, with the headline rate recorded at **2.75%** in early 2026. Manufacturing activity remains a primary growth driver, expanding by **8.1%** as per recent industrial production data. This industrial momentum, combined with a **3.9%** government capital expenditure-to-GDP ratio, provides a solid floor for the next leg of the market cycle.
Bharti Airtel Shares in Focus Amid Plans for ₹20,000 Crore NBFC Investment
Bharti Airtel: Strategic Pivot to Digital Finance Bharti Airtel has announced a major capital infusion of **Rs 20,000 crore** into its financial services arm, Airtel Money Limited. This investment marks a decisive move to transform the subsidiary into a high-scale Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC). The funding structure involves a **70%** contribution from Bharti Airtel, with the remaining **30%** provided by the promoter group, Bharti Enterprises. The capital will be deployed over the next few years to challenge established players in India's rapidly growing digital lending market. Regulatory Milestone and Licensing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) granted a Type II NBFC license to Airtel Money on **February 13, 2026**. This certification allows the entity to operate as a non-deposit-taking institution, enabling the legal disbursement of loans, microcredit, and structured financial products. This shift expands the company's scope beyond its existing digital wallet, which was restricted from direct lending. The new structure provides the operational flexibility needed to offer high-ticket credit products to a massive subscriber base. Proven Performance and Data Scale Airtel is not entering the credit space from scratch. Over the last two years, its Lending Service Provider (LSP) platform has already achieved disbursements exceeding **Rs 9,000 crore**. The company maintains best-in-class delinquency outcomes, supported by a specialized team of over **500 data scientists**. This team leverages a proprietary credit engine to analyze real-time data from Airtel’s **600 million** global customers, ensuring disciplined underwriting and risk monitoring. Market Context and Growth Drivers India's formal credit-to-GDP ratio currently stands at approximately **53%**, indicating a significant credit gap. Research suggests a potential credit shortfall in the range of **Rs 20–25 trillion**, particularly among underserved retail and MSME segments. The digital lending sector is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly **24%** through 2030. Airtel aims to capitalize on this by integrating credit journeys directly into its telecom and payment apps, creating a seamless "invisible finance" experience for users. Financial Outlook Bharti Airtel reported a consolidated revenue of **Rs 53,982 crore** for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. The company’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) reached **Rs 256**, a **21%** increase year-on-year. By diversifying into high-margin financial services, the group seeks to drive further ARPU growth and increase customer "stickiness" within its ecosystem. The NBFC expansion is positioned as the company's next major growth engine alongside its core 5G and enterprise operations.
India SME Market Performance and Outlook 2026
The Indian SME IPO market, once celebrated for its "multibagger" potential, is undergoing a significant correction. As of late February 2026, the segment is grappling with a sharp cooling of investor sentiment and a return to fundamental valuations. Recent data shows that nearly 60% of SME companies listed in 2026 are currently trading below their issue price. This is a marked shift from the exuberant gains seen in previous years. Average listing gains have moderated significantly, dropping from a peak of 30% in 2024 to single digits in 2025, and now showing an average return of -2.4% for the initial months of 2026. Liquidity remains the most pressing concern for the platform. Trading volumes for many listed SMEs have plummeted, with daily turnover often falling below 0.5% of total free float. This illiquidity has made institutional investors, including Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), increasingly hesitant. Without a clear exit mechanism, these large-scale players are pulling back, which in turn compresses valuations even for fundamentally strong companies. Regulatory tightening by SEBI has further transformed the landscape. New rules introduced in March 2025 and fully implemented throughout early 2026 have raised the barrier for entry. Minimum application sizes have doubled to 200,000 INR to filter out casual retail participation and ensure only high-risk-tolerant investors remain. Additional reforms now mandate a minimum operating profit (EBITDA) of 10 million INR for at least two of the last three financial years. Furthermore, the "Offer-for-Sale" (OFS) component is now capped at 20% of the total issue size, preventing insiders from offloading excessive stakes during the listing. Institutional participation has also been impacted by the new allocation methodology, which now uses a "draw of lots" for the Non-Institutional Investor (NII) category. This shift away from proportionate allotment has reduced the incentive for large-scale bidding, contributing to the cooling of subscription numbers. Despite these challenges, many market analysts view the current downturn as a "healthy reset." By flushing out speculative heat and enforcing stricter governance, the platform is moving toward a more mature ecosystem. However, the long-term relevance of the SME exchange depends heavily on whether liquidity challenges can be addressed to provide investors with viable exit routes.
Indian IT Stocks and ADRs Decline Following Anthropic Product Launch
The Indian IT sector is facing a significant valuation correction as of February 24, 2026, driven by rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. The Nifty IT index has plummeted 18.19% over the past month, reflecting deep investor anxiety regarding the industry's traditional labor-intensive business models. The primary catalyst for this shift is Anthropic's launch of Claude Code, a specialized AI tool designed to modernize legacy COBOL-based systems. This development directly targets a high-margin revenue stream for Indian firms, as COBOL still powers an estimated 95% of ATM transactions and a vast majority of global financial infrastructure. Market reactions have been sharp. US-listed ADRs for major Indian IT players fell by up to 5%, while IBM shares suffered a historic 13% single-day drop, wiping out 31 billion dollars in market value. On domestic exchanges, Infosys shares recently traded down 1.90% at 1,327.50 INR, and Wipro declined 1.89% to 205.89 INR. The disruption is not limited to coding. Analysts estimate that 9% to 12% of industry revenues could be eliminated over the next four years. Application services, which account for 40% to 70% of total revenue for firms like TCS and HCLTech, are viewed as highly vulnerable to AI-led automation. Despite the sell-off, some resilience remains. The top five Indian exporters reported combined contract bookings of 21.5 billion dollars in the most recent quarter. Furthermore, the Indian government is doubling down on infrastructure, planning to add 20,000 GPUs to its national compute capacity to support domestic AI development at significantly lower costs than global rates. Industry leaders are now pivoting from labor-based billing toward outcome-based models. While the "software is dead" narrative is considered premature by some analysts, the pressure to integrate AI into client delivery is no longer optional. The sector's ability to transition from a workforce-heavy model to an AI-first engineering framework will determine its stability in the coming year. Current technical indicators show the Nifty IT index continues to struggle, even as broader benchmark indices like the Sensex and Nifty 50 maintain modest gains. Investors are closely monitoring the 25,500 support level for the Nifty, as any further breakdown could signal a deeper pull-back for technology stocks.
**Clean Max Enviro Energy IPO: Day 2 Subscription, GMP, and Market Analysis**
The Rs 3,100 crore IPO of Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions has entered its second day of bidding with a subscription of 34% recorded on the first day. The issue is priced between Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,053 per share, with a minimum lot size of 14 shares requiring an investment of Rs 14,742 for retail participants. Institutional appetite appears resilient as the Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB) segment was oversubscribed 1.03 times on day one. In contrast, the retail segment saw a lukewarm response with only 2% subscription, and Non-Institutional Investors (NII) stood at 20%. The offering includes a fresh issue of Rs 1,200 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of Rs 1,900 crore. Grey market signals remain muted, with the premium (GMP) hovering near Re 1, or roughly 0.09% above the upper price band. This indicates expectations of a flat listing. The company reported a turnaround in FY25, posting a net profit of Rs 19.43 crore compared to a loss in FY24, while revenue grew 13% to reach Rs 1,610 crore. Market analysts highlight the firm's leadership in the commercial and industrial (C&I) renewable sector, where it manages 2.80 GW of operational capacity. However, concerns persist regarding high leverage, as total borrowings reached Rs 10,121 crore by September 2025. The company plans to utilize Rs 1,125 crore from the fresh issue to repay debt. Valuation is a primary point of debate. At the upper price band, the issue is valued at approximately 16 times EV/EBITDA. While some brokerages suggest caution due to aggressive pricing and thin net profit margins of 1.2%, others point toward long-term potential fueled by rising demand from data centers and AI industries. The subscription window remains open until February 25, 2026. Share allotment is expected to be finalized on February 26, with the tentative listing on BSE and NSE scheduled for March 2, 2026. Current trends suggest a cautious approach from individual investors even as the broader renewable energy sector sees accelerated growth in India.
One Mobikwik Systems Subsidiary Receives BSE Approval for Stock Broking Business
MobiKwik has officially entered the Indian stock broking sector, with its subsidiary receiving final approval from the Bombay Stock Exchange to begin operations effective February 24, 2026. This follows the company's SEBI registration secured in July 2025, granting it the authority to execute and clear equity trades. The timing of this launch coincides with a significant shift in the Indian market landscape. As of February 24, 2026, domestic indices are navigating a period of global volatility. The GIFT Nifty recently indicated a lower opening of approximately 115 points, following a session where the Sensex closed at 83,294 and the Nifty 50 finished at 25,713. Despite daily fluctuations, the broader market remains supported by robust domestic participation. Retail engagement in India has reached historic highs, providing a stable foundation for new digital entrants. During the 2025 fiscal year, the market saw a record 41.1 million new demat accounts, averaging 3.42 million additions every month. This massive influx of new investors is reflected in mutual fund activity, where monthly SIP inflows have consistently crossed the 31,000 crore INR mark. MobiKwik enters this competitive field from a position of renewed financial strength. In its most recent Q3 FY26 earnings, the company reported a net profit of 4 crore INR, a sharp turnaround from the 55 crore INR loss recorded in the same period the previous year. Quarterly revenue rose 7.4% to reach 289 crore INR, driven by its payment gateway and digital wallet services. The firm’s expansion into stock broking is a strategic move to leverage its existing user base and transition into a full-scale financial services platform. The Indian security brokerage market is currently valued at approximately 2.2 billion USD and is projected to grow at a steady rate through 2034. Mobile-first, online platforms now account for over 32% of this market, benefiting from the rising demand for low-cost, accessible trading tools. By enabling the buying, selling, and settlement of equity trades, the platform aims to capture a share of the growing middle-class investor base. The strategy focuses on simplifying the investment process for "Bharat"—the demographic of new retail participants from smaller cities who are increasingly moving away from traditional savings toward equity-linked assets.
Cybersecurity Stocks Decline Following Anthropic AI Launch
Market Update: AI Disruption in Cybersecurity The cybersecurity sector faced a significant downturn following the launch of Anthropic’s **Claude Code Security**. This new AI-powered tool has triggered a wave of investor anxiety, leading to a broad selloff across major industry players. Heavy Sector Losses CrowdStrike shares fell sharply, dropping approximately **8%** to a price of **$388.20**. Datadog also saw a decline of over **4%**, closing at **$115.66**. The impact extended across the sector, with Okta falling more than **9%** and Cloudflare sliding **8%**. The **Global X Cybersecurity ETF** (BUG) retreated to its lowest level since November 2023. Combined, these movements erased billions of dollars in market value in a single trading session. Technical Capabilities vs. Market Narrative Anthropic’s tool is designed to scan software codebases for logic flaws and vulnerabilities that traditional scanners often miss. During internal testing, the model identified over **500 vulnerabilities** in production open-source code. Despite the stock price reactions, analysts note a mismatch between the tool's function and the core businesses of the affected firms. Claude Code Security focuses on the application security layer, while firms like CrowdStrike specialize in real-time endpoint protection and threat response. Shift in Industry Economics Investors are increasingly concerned that AI will commoditize specialized security workflows. Markets are currently pricing in a scenario where rapid AI integration could lead to **10%** earnings cuts across large-cap IT and security firms over the next **12 to 18 months**. The disruption is being viewed as a shift from fixed human labor costs to variable compute spend. This has led to a "de-risking" reaction, where capital rotates out of the entire cybersecurity theme regardless of specific product overlap. Outlook and Resilience While near-term volatility remains high, some analysts maintain that the selloff is an overreaction. Traditional security platforms continue to report growth, with CrowdStrike recently posting revenue of **$1.23 billion**, a **22%** year-over-year increase. The market's focus is shifting toward "platformization," where enterprises consolidate their security needs with a single provider to manage the expanding attack surface created by AI agents. Global IT spending is still projected to reach **$6.1 trillion** in 2026, driven largely by AI investment.
IBM Shares See Largest Single-Day Decline Since 2000 Following Anthropic's COBOL Modernization Announcement
IBM shares experienced a historic collapse this week, plummeting **13.2%** in a single session. This marks the company’s steepest one-day decline since October 2000. The selloff wiped out approximately **$31 billion** in market value, with the stock closing at **$223.35**. The catalyst for this downturn was an announcement from AI startup Anthropic regarding its "Claude Code" tool. The new technology claims to automate the modernization of COBOL, a legacy programming language that has served as a high-barrier "moat" for IBM’s consulting and mainframe business for decades. COBOL remains the backbone of global finance, powering an estimated **95%** of all ATM transactions in the United States. Traditionally, updating these systems required massive teams of specialists and years of manual effort. Anthropic claims its AI can now map dependencies and document workflows in quarters rather than years, directly threatening IBM's lucrative services model. This market reaction follows a period of significant growth for IBM. In 2025, the company outperformed the Dow Jones with a **35%** annual gain. Its generative AI book of business surged to **$12.5 billion** by the end of last year, up from **$5 billion** in 2024. Infrastructure revenue had also seen a **12%** jump, fueled by demand for the Z17 mainframe. However, the rapid advancement of AI-driven code migration has introduced fresh volatility. Beyond IBM, other IT consulting giants like Accenture and Cognizant also saw their shares retreat as investors reassess the long-term value of traditional legacy system maintenance. IBM’s stock is now down roughly **27%** for the month of February, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance since 1968. Despite this, IBM continues its own AI push through the Watsonx platform, which aims to refactor COBOL into Java. The company remains financially robust, reporting a record **$14.7 billion** in free cash flow for 2025. While the fundamental business remains profitable, the "Claude Code" update has shifted the narrative from IBM as an AI beneficiary to a potential target of AI disruption. Investors are now closely watching the rollout of "Project Bob" in 2026, which is expected to be IBM’s direct competitive response to these emerging automation tools. For now, the focus remains on whether IBM's integrated ecosystem can withstand the pressure of cheaper, faster AI-led modernization alternatives.
China Maintains Benchmark Lending Rates for Ninth Consecutive Month
China Market Update: PBOC Holds Lending Rates The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) maintained its benchmark lending rates for the ninth consecutive month during its February **2026** session. The decision aligns with a broader strategy of "moderately loose" monetary policy aimed at stabilizing the domestic economy while managing currency pressure. Benchmark Rates Unchanged The **one-year** Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which serves as the primary benchmark for the majority of new and outstanding corporate and household loans, was held at **3.0%**. Similarly, the **five-year** LPR, the critical reference point for the nation's mortgage market and long-term capital investments, remains at **3.5%**. Economic Context This pause in adjustments comes as the central bank balances the need for liquidity with a cautious approach toward the yuan. Recent data shows a complex economic landscape: * **GDP Momentum:** China’s economy grew **5.0%** in 2025, though momentum eased to **4.5%** by the final quarter. * **Target Outlook:** Analysts expect a **2026** growth target of "around **5%**," supported by a projected **4.8%** expansion according to major financial institutions. * **Property Sector:** While indicators like home starts and investment remain significantly lower than **2020-2021** peaks, the drag on GDP is expected to narrow by **0.5** percentage points this year. Policy Trajectory Central bank leadership has signaled that further tools remain available for the remainder of **2026**. Governor Pan Gongsheng recently indicated that there is still room for additional Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure sufficient liquidity. The current stability in the LPR suggests the PBOC is prioritizing the transmission of existing policy measures into the real economy. Efforts are focused on directing credit toward high-tech manufacturing—which captured roughly **one-third** of total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) recently—and supporting domestic consumption to offset reliance on exports. Market participants are now monitoring the upcoming legislative sessions for formal 2026 growth targets and potential fiscal stimulus packages that may complement the current monetary stance.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon Announces Plans to Remain in Role for Several Years
JPMorgan Chase Leadership and Market Outlook JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon has signaled a definitive shift in his long-standing leadership timeline. Speaking at the bank's February 2026 investor update, the 69-year-old executive stated he plans to remain as CEO for "a few more years" before transitioning to the role of executive chairman. This marks a departure from his decade-long "five more years" mantra, providing Wall Street with a more concrete succession window. The internal transition is already in motion. Jennifer Piepszak has assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer, a move seen as a primary step in the bank's grooming process for the top seat. Additionally, long-time President Daniel Pinto is scheduled to retire at the end of 2026, further clearing the path for the next generation of leadership. Financial Performance and Asset Growth The bank enters 2026 on a wave of record-breaking financial performance. For the full year 2025, JPMorgan reported a staggering net income of **$57.5 billion**, with total managed revenue reaching **$185 billion**. The institution's balance sheet has expanded to **$4.6 trillion**, solidifying its position as the largest bank in the United States. Market capitalization currently hovers around **$838 billion**, reflecting a significant **30%** increase over the previous year. Shareholder returns remain a priority, highlighted by a **20%** dividend increase to **$1.50** per share and the repurchase of **$7.9 billion** in common stock during the final quarter of 2025. Strategic Priorities and Economic Caution Jamie Dimon is prioritizing organic growth over massive acquisitions, noting that the bank is prepared to deploy **$40 billion** to **$50 billion** of excess capital into its own operations. One major focus is the integration of the Apple Card portfolio, which is expected to contribute approximately **$30 billion** to risk-weighted assets in the near term. Despite the strong balance sheet, leadership remains cautious. Dimon has warned that current asset prices are reminiscent of pre-2008 levels and that markets may be underestimating the risks of "sticky" inflation and geopolitical instability. Interest Rate Environment The Federal Reserve has entered a pause period as of early 2026, holding the federal funds rate at a range of **3.5%** to **3.75%**. This follows three rate cuts in late 2025. For the 2026 fiscal year, JPMorgan projects net interest income (NII) to reach approximately **$103 billion**, a **7%** growth target, as the bank navigates lower funding costs and a stabilizing labor market. Technological investment continues to scale, with adjusted expenses projected at **$105 billion** for 2026. A significant portion of this capital is earmarked for the deployment of artificial intelligence across its **500** active use cases, as the firm seeks to maintain its competitive edge in a shifting digital landscape.
Blue Jet Healthcare and Three Other Stocks Show Bullish Technical Indicators
Market Brief: Bullish Momentum in Nifty 500 The Indian equity markets demonstrated resilience on February 23, with the **Nifty 50** gaining **141 points** to close at **25,713**, while the **Sensex** advanced by **0.6%** to settle at **83,294**. Within this positive environment, the **Nifty 500** index climbed **0.4%** to **23,484**, supported by specific counters exhibiting strong technical breakouts. White Marubozu Signals Four stocks within the **Nifty 500** pack flashed a **White Marubozu** pattern during the session. This technical formation occurs when a stock opens at its low and closes at its high, resulting in a long green candle with little to no shadows. Traders view this as a sign of absolute buyer dominance, suggesting a potential continuation of the uptrend in the coming sessions. Blue Jet Healthcare Outperforms **Blue Jet Healthcare** emerged as a primary highlight, surging **10.00%** to close at **391.40**. The stock outpaced the broader pharmaceutical sector by **8.93%**, hitting an intraday high of **390.95**. Despite this sharp move, the stock currently trades above its **5-day moving average** but remains below its long-term **200-day average**, indicating a significant short-term recovery within a broader consolidation phase. Other Notable Movers * **Aegis Vopak Terminals** jumped **8.7%** to reach **229.03**. * **Neuland Laboratories** climbed **8.0%** to **13,651**. * **BLS International** gained **5.0%** to finish at **281.75**. Market Outlook Domestic momentum remains a primary driver even as global cues fluctuate. For the current expiry cycle, **25,500** is identified as crucial support for the Nifty, while **26,000** remains a major resistance zone. Foreign Institutional Investors (**FIIs**) showed confidence by purchasing shares worth **3,484 crore** in the latest session, offsetting localized selling by domestic institutions.
Market impact of rising gold prices on private and public sector banks
Market Brief: The Bullion Bonanza Rising gold prices have catalyzed a significant shift in India's lending landscape, turning gold loan portfolios into high-performance engines for both private and Public Sector Banks (PSUs). As of **February 24, 2026**, gold prices in India have surged past **₹16,150 per gram** for 24K gold, with MCX futures trading near **₹1,61,500 per 10 grams**. This rally represents a historic valuation increase, strengthening bank balance sheets through higher collateral values and improved risk profiles. Strategic Asset Appreciation The surge in the yellow metal has effectively de-risked gold loan books. Every **₹1,000 per gram** increase in price adds approximately **₹1 lakh** to the average household's borrowing capacity, allowing banks to maintain comfortable Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratios even as they disburse larger amounts. For many lenders, the gold loan segment is now outperforming overall credit growth, driven by a **103% year-over-year increase** in outstanding gold-backed credit. Regulatory Tailwinds and Tiers The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced a tiered LTV structure, effective **April 1, 2026**, which further incentivizes small-ticket lending. Under these guidelines, loans up to **₹2.5 lakh** are eligible for an **85% LTV**, while larger loans above **₹5 lakh** are capped at **75%**. This regulatory shift, combined with a crackdown on unsecured personal loans, has funneled a massive wave of borrowers toward secured gold credit. Institutional Growth Performance Smaller private banks and PSUs are capturing market share from traditional Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs). While majors like Muthoot Finance reported a staggering **87% surge in net profit** to **₹2,345 crore** for Q2 FY26, banks are leveraging their lower cost of funds to offer more competitive rates. The organized gold loan market is currently projected to reach **₹15 lakh crore** by **March 2027**, a sharp rise from its **₹7.1 lakh crore** valuation in 2024. Asset Quality and Margins Lenders are witnessing a "balance sheet bonanza" as the inherent value of the underlying asset minimizes the need for aggressive provisioning. With gold serving as a primary store of value for over **25,000 tonnes** of household holdings, the shift toward asset-backed borrowing has stabilized net interest margins (NIMs) in an otherwise volatile interest rate environment. The market is now seeing a consolidation phase where digital-first lending and transparent valuation norms are becoming the industry standard.