Bullish News
Collection
Sameer Dalal: Buying Opportunity Amid Tariff Uncertainty, Iran Tensions, and IT Stock Volatility
Indian equity markets are navigating a period of sharp global transitions. The Nifty 50 currently holds a position near **25,571**, while the Sensex has stabilized around **82,814**. Despite external pressures, domestic benchmarks have recently recorded a three-day winning streak, signaling underlying resilience. Market participants are closely tracking the impact of a revised **15%** global tariff announced by the U.S. administration. While this has deferred some bilateral trade discussions, the immediate effect on Indian exports is being partially cushioned by a new trade agreement that brought reciprocal rates down from previous highs. Oil price volatility remains a critical variable. Brent crude is trading in the range of **$70.81** to **$71.28** per barrel. While these levels are currently manageable, any geopolitical escalation in the Middle East that pushes prices higher poses a direct risk to India’s inflation targets and trade deficit. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to exert pressure on the cash segment, with net sales totaling approximately **₹1,374 crore** so far in February. This follows a heavy exit of over **₹41,000 crore** in January. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have acted as a significant buffer, absorbing the selling with substantial inflows. The valuation correction in the IT sector is reaching a mature stage. The Nifty IT index recently faced an **8.2%** weekly decline, but analysts suggest the downside is now limited. IT spending in India is actually projected to grow by **10.6%** in 2026, reaching an estimated **$176.3 billion**. Mid-sized private banks remain a focal point for growth. Despite a recent **₹590-crore** fraud incident involving a prominent mid-sized lender, the regulator has indicated no systemic risk. The sector continues to see interest as the RBI proposes raising collateral-free MSME loan limits to **₹20 lakh**, potentially boosting credit books. Currency markets show the Indian Rupee trading near **90.73** against the US Dollar. Record foreign exchange reserves of **$725.7 billion** provide a robust safety net against further depreciation. Investors are increasingly adopting a "buy on dips" strategy. The current market P/E ratio stands at approximately **22.4** for the Nifty 50, which is considered a fair valuation for long-term entry, especially as corporate earnings growth for the next fiscal year remains promising.
Australian Market Mixed as US Tariff Concerns Impact Shares Amid Mining Gains
The Australian sharemarket faced significant downward pressure today, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index sliding 47.80 points, or 0.5%, to close at 9033.60. Investor sentiment was rattled by renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, following a complex legal battle involving the scope of presidential tariff powers. While eight out of eleven sectors recorded losses, the materials sector emerged as a notable exception. Mining heavyweights acted as a defensive shield for the broader market, driven by a surge in gold prices. Spot gold climbed 1.3% to reach $5,172.21 per ounce, fueling a sharp rally in precious metal producers. Ramelius Resources led the gains with a 7% surge, while Evolution Mining and Newmont added 2.6% and 4.3%, respectively. BHP also hit a milestone, touching a new record high of $54.75 during the session. In contrast, the technology sector bore the brunt of the sell-off. Concerns over global logistics and artificial intelligence valuations saw WiseTech Global drop 5.7%, while data center operator NextDC fell 5%. The financial sector provided little support as three of the "Big Four" banks traded lower; ANZ paced the decline with a 1.9% drop. The ongoing February reporting season remains a critical stabilizer. Despite the daily volatility, corporate fundamentals appear resilient. BHP’s half-year results featured an 11% revenue jump to $27.9 billion and a 46% dividend hike to $0.73 per share. Similarly, ANZ reported a 17% jump in quarterly cash profit to $1.94 billion. Economic indicators show Australia navigating a delicate "soft landing." The RBA currently projects GDP growth to settle around 2.1% for 2026, though headline inflation remains a persistent challenge at 3.6%. While the unemployment rate has edged up slightly to 4.3%, the labor market remains relatively tight by historical standards. Market analysts view the current pullback as a tactical buying opportunity rather than a structural shift. With the index sitting just below its October record of 9115.2, strong earnings and the haven appeal of the resource sector are expected to underpin a recovery toward previous highs as trade policy clarity returns.
Global Investment Outlook: Tariffs, Trade Realignment, and Market Strategies
Tariffs have officially shifted from temporary trade measures to permanent strategic pillars in global economic policy. Following a landmark February 20, 2026, Supreme Court ruling that limited specific presidential authorities, the U.S. administration immediately pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act. Effective February 24, 2026, a new 10% global import surcharge has been imposed on most goods. This move aims to address a persistent $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit and a current account deficit sitting at 4% of GDP. The global trade landscape is reacting to an average effective tariff rate that has climbed to 9.1%—the highest level since 1946. While certain essentials like critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, and energy products remain exempt, the manufacturing sector faces significant pressure. U.S. manufacturing output is projected to expand by 1.2%, yet this growth is balanced against a cooling services sector and rising input costs for businesses. India is navigating this volatility through a proactive "China+1+1" strategy. This model encourages diversifying supply chains not just into India, but also through third-party hubs like Vietnam or Malaysia to mitigate tariff risks. Despite global headwinds, India’s exports grew by 5.5% in the latter half of 2025, reaching over $560 billion. To maintain this momentum, the government has allocated ₹25,060 crore toward an Export Promotion Mission, focusing on MSME resilience and advanced logistics. By mid-2026, supply chain realignment will be largely defined by regionalization. The logistics sector is seeing a massive shift, with India and the EU recently finalizing a trade deal to remove duties on 90% of goods. Simultaneously, logistics costs in India have stabilized at 7.97% of GDP, providing a cushion against international price spikes. Global businesses are now prioritizing vertical integration and "near-shoring" to bypass the high-tariff walls of traditional trade corridors. Investment strategies for 2026 are increasingly centered on technology and diversified sourcing. AI-related trade now accounts for nearly 20% of global value growth, driven by a semiconductor market nearing $1 trillion. Companies are hedging against tariff-driven inflation by moving away from high-concentration sourcing. For North American buyers, the reliance on the top three traditional supplier nations has already dropped from 61% to 54%, signaling a permanent shift toward a multi-polar trade world.
Bharat Dynamics Shares Decline 3% Amid Broad Weakness in Defense PSUs
Bharat Dynamics Market Update Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) shares are currently trading under significant pressure, recently falling approximately **2.98%** to reach **₹1,271.40**. This decline is part of a broader correction within the defense Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) space following the Union Budget 2026. While the budget increased defense capital expenditure by roughly **21%** to **₹2.19 lakh crore**, the figures failed to meet the aggressive "big bang" expectations previously priced into the sector. The stock has witnessed a sharp reversal from its **52-week high** of **₹2,096.60**, now trading nearly **39%** below that peak. Technical indicators signal a bearish trend as the price remains stuck below key long-term hurdles, specifically the **200-day Moving Average** of **₹1,589.98** and the **50-day Moving Average** of **₹1,411.84**. Although short-term support is emerging near the **₹1,265** level, the overall momentum remains cautious. Financial Performance and Valuation Recent quarterly earnings have added to the sober sentiment. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, BDL reported a significant drop in profitability. Net profit stood at **₹72.92 crore**, a sharp decline compared to the **₹147.13 crore** recorded in the same period last year. Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the quarter fell to **₹1.99**, down from **₹4.01** year-on-year. Despite the recent price drop, BDL’s valuation remains a point of discussion among analysts. The stock currently trades at a trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately **80.3**, which is higher than the broader sector average of **74.3**. This premium suggests that while the stock has corrected, it is still priced for high future growth, leaving little room for further operational delays or earnings misses. Sector Trends and Outlook The defense sector is undergoing a necessary valuation reset. After a massive multi-year rally, investors are shifting focus from momentum to execution. High-beta stocks like Mazagon Dock and Garden Reach have also faced double-digit corrections this month. However, the structural narrative for BDL remains supported by a strong order book and the government’s continued push for "Atmanirbhar Bharat." Export potential serves as a long-term catalyst, with India targeting **₹50,000 crore** in defense exports by FY29. BDL, as the primary manufacturer of guided missile systems like the Akash and Astra, is central to this strategy. While institutional holdings by FIIs slightly decreased to **2.30%** in the recent quarter, the company maintains a debt-free balance sheet and a steady dividend yield of **0.40%**, providing a fundamental floor for long-term investors. Short-term volatility is expected to persist as the market absorbs the recent earnings data and adjusts to the new fiscal allocations. Immediate resistance is pegged at **₹1,324**, while a sustained break below **₹1,250** could lead to further technical weakness.
Rupee gains 21 paise to 90.73 against US dollar in early trade
The Indian rupee experienced a notable surge on Monday, gaining **21 paise** to reach **90.73** against the US dollar. This recovery follows a volatile period where the local unit had previously settled at **90.94**. Market sentiment was primarily buoyed by a significant shift in global trade policy. The US Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling striking down several broad-based tariffs, labeling them a "transformative expansion" of presidential authority. While the US administration quickly countered by announcing a temporary **10% to 15%** global import surcharge, the overall dollar index fell **0.33%** to **97.47**, easing pressure on emerging market currencies. Energy costs provided additional relief for the Indian economy. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped **1.09%** to trade at **$70.98** per barrel. This decline is critical for India, as lower oil prices directly reduce the national import bill and help stabilize domestic inflation. Domestic financial indicators also showed robust strength: * India's foreign exchange reserves hit a fresh all-time high of **$725.727 billion** for the week ended February 13, according to the latest RBI data. * Equity markets opened with strong momentum, with the Sensex surging **621.78 points** to **83,436.49** and the Nifty 50 climbing **180.05 points** to **25,751.30**. The influx of capital into domestic equities and the record-high forex cushion have provided the Reserve Bank of India with significant firepower to manage further currency volatility. Despite the rupee's gain, traders remain watchful as global trade uncertainties persist following the new US executive orders on surcharges. The interbank foreign exchange market saw the rupee open at **90.76** before strengthening further, reflecting improved risk appetite among international investors and a temporary retreat in the greenback’s dominance.
Textile Stocks Fluctuate Following US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Market Brief: Indian Textile Sector The Indian textile sector experienced a dynamic trading session on Monday, February 23, 2026, as markets reacted to a historic legal shift in U.S. trade policy. A landmark ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated previous sweeping tariffs, initially sparking optimism before a new administrative levy introduced fresh complexity. Stock Performance and Market Reaction Indian equity markets advanced on the news, with specific textile players leading the charge. **Kitex Garments** surged by **10.4%**, while **Trident** and **Welspun Living** climbed **7.5%** and **4.2%** respectively. The rally reflects a perceived easing of the extreme tariff pressures that had previously seen duties on Indian goods fluctuate between **26%** and **50%**. However, the gains were not uniform across the board. **Gokaldas Exports** saw a dip of **4%**, and **Indo Count** slipped **1.3%** in early trade as investors weighed the long-term impact of the new global trade framework. The broader textiles sector market cap currently stands at approximately **₹1,66,969.77 crore**, reflecting a daily increase of **1.91%**. The U.S. Tariff Reset The U.S. Supreme Court ruled **6–3** that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs was unauthorized. This decision effectively struck down the "Liberation Day" tariffs that had heavily burdened Indian exporters throughout 2025. In immediate response, the U.S. administration invoked **Section 122** of the Trade Act of 1974. This move established a new **15%** global tariff, revised upward from an initial **10%** announcement. For Indian textile firms, this represents a significant reduction from the previous **18%** effective rate, though it removes the specific competitive advantage India held over rivals like Bangladesh and Vietnam. Strategic Trade Rescheduling The Indian government is currently evaluating the implications of the **150-day** temporary import surcharge. In light of these legal developments, a high-stakes meeting between Indian and U.S. chief negotiators, originally set for February 23 in Washington, has been rescheduled. Both nations seek to reassess the text of a proposed interim trade pact. Analysts suggest the new **15%** baseline provides a fresh floor for negotiations, as India aims to secure its target of reaching **$100 billion** in textile exports by 2030. Outlook for Exporters The shift to a uniform global tariff is expected to alleviate margin pressures for small and mid-cap engineering and textile firms. While the uniform rate places all competing nations on equal footing, the reduction from higher 2025 levels is viewed as a net positive for Indian order books. The domestic industry remains a pillar of the economy, contributing **2%** to India's GDP and providing livelihoods for over **45 million** people. Investors are now focused on the mid-March window, when the final text of the India-US bilateral agreement is expected to provide definitive clarity on duty-free access and long-term trade stability.
**Indian Markets and Broader Indices Rally Following Signs of Recovery**
Market Pulse: Indian Equities Indian equity markets have entered a decisive recovery phase as of February 23, 2026. The benchmark **Nifty 50** has reclaimed the **25,700** level, while the **BSE Sensex** continues to trade firmly above **82,800**. This upward momentum follows a complex 18-month cycle, signaling a shift from a defensive stance to selective accumulation. Market breadth has notably improved, with over **2,200** advancing stocks against roughly **1,900** declining on the BSE. Volatility remains under control as the India VIX cools, reflecting growing investor confidence in the current price action. PSU Banking Dominance The Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banking sector has emerged as the primary engine for the current rally. The **Nifty PSU Bank Index** recently touched **9,665**, driven by historic earnings growth. Combined net profits for state-owned lenders reached **₹52,603 crore** in the December quarter (Q3 FY26), an **18%** year-on-year increase. **State Bank of India (SBI)** reported a record net profit of **₹21,028 crore**, contributing roughly **40%** of the total sector earnings. Asset quality is at a multi-year high, with gross NPAs falling to a record low of **2.30%**. With credit growth holding at **12%**, these institutions serve as a robust proxy for the broader domestic economy. Corporate Earnings and Growth India Inc. continues to show resilience, with corporate earnings expected to grow at an accelerated pace of **8.8%** to **13%** for the fiscal year. This performance is backed by a stable GDP growth projection of **7.2%** for the quarter, maintaining India’s position as a top-performing major economy. Quality stocks are witnessing a "buy-on-dips" sentiment. While the IT sector has faced headwinds due to global spending caution—dropping roughly **1.2%** in recent sessions—sectors like Metals, FMCG, and Infrastructure have picked up the slack. **Larsen & Toubro** and **Tata Steel** have recently hit or approached 52-week highs, emphasizing the strength in capital goods and industrial segments. Institutional Resilience A structural shift in market dynamics is now evident. While Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been selective, withdrawing approximately **₹25,000 crore** in early 2026, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have more than compensated with inflows exceeding **₹40,000 crore**. Robust retail participation through SIPs, which now exceed **₹15,000 crore** monthly, provides a massive liquidity cushion. This domestic conviction reduces the market's historical dependence on foreign capital and stabilizes valuations during global geopolitical uncertainty. Strategic Outlook The technical structure remains constructive. Immediate support for the Nifty is established at the **25,000–25,300** zone, while a sustained break above **25,800** could pave the way for a move toward **26,300**. The risk-reward balance is increasingly favorable for long-term investors. High-quality counters with clean balance sheets and strong dividend yields are the preferred targets for current capital allocation. Focus remains on sectors benefiting from government infrastructure spending and stable domestic consumption.
UPL Shares Decline 10% Following Restructuring Announcement and Nuvama Downgrade
UPL Strategic Reorganization and Market Impact UPL shares experienced a sharp **10.26%** decline during intraday trading on **February 23, 2026**, hitting a lower circuit limit of **676.60**. The sell-off followed the announcement of a massive three-step corporate restructuring plan. The reorganization aims to consolidate Indian and international crop protection operations into a single, unified entity called **UPL Global**. This new platform is projected to become the world’s second-largest listed pure-play crop protection company, with operations spanning over **140 countries**. Restructuring Mechanics The plan involves the amalgamation of UPL Sustainable Agri Solutions into the parent company, followed by a vertical demerger of the India-based business into **UPL Global**. Simultaneously, the international arm, UPL Corp, will be merged into this new entity. Following the transition, the original listed UPL entity will evolve into a diversified platform focused on specialty chemicals and next-generation agricultural ventures. Financial Performance and Debt Despite the share price volatility, UPL reported a **12%** year-on-year revenue growth in the quarter ending **December 2025**, reaching **12,269 crore**. Net profit for the period surged **45%** to **452 crore**, driven by strong volume growth in Europe and Latin America. Addressing leverage remains a primary strategic goal. The company successfully reduced its net debt by **2,553 crore** over the past year, bringing the total down to **23,317 crore**. Management has set a target to improve the Net Debt to EBITDA ratio to a range of **1.6x–1.8x** by the end of **March 2026**. Market Sentiment and Outlook Investor caution stems from the complexity of the merger and potential execution risks. While the move is designed to eliminate the "conglomerate discount" and unlock value, analysts have flagged concerns over near-term cash flow and the lack of a precise timeline for the integration. The broader agrochemical sector continues to face pricing headwinds due to Chinese overcapacity. However, demand for herbicides and fungicides remains robust, with global crop protection spending projected to grow by **2.6%** in the coming year. Strategic deleveraging is further supported by the upcoming IPO of **Advanta**, UPL’s seeds and technology unit. Proceeds from this listing are intended to further strengthen the group’s balance sheet as it transitions toward a more focused corporate structure.
Internet Stocks Decline Up to 28% YTD as Brokerages Maintain Positive Outlook on Paytm, Groww, and Five Others Post-Q3
Market Brief: Indian Internet Sector Q3 Update The Indian internet ecosystem is currently navigating a period of sharp divergence. While several key platforms delivered record revenue momentum and profit expansion in the December quarter, share prices have faced downward pressure due to broader market volatility and waning sentiment in the new-age tech space. Total year-to-date declines for some internet stocks have reached up to **28%**. However, underlying business fundamentals show a significant pivot toward sustainable profitability and margin expansion across major players. Key Performance Drivers **Zomato (Eternal Ltd)** The food delivery and quick-commerce leader reported a staggering **202%** year-on-year jump in revenue. Profit after tax surged **73%**, reflecting strong operating leverage. Despite these metrics, the stock has traded flat at approximately **₹271.95**, as investors weigh valuation against long-term growth. **Paytm (One 97 Communications)** The fintech major achieved a notable turnaround, posting a net profit of **₹225 crore** for the quarter, compared to a loss of **₹208 crore** in the previous year. Revenue grew **20%** to **₹2,194 crore**, driven by a **35%** growth in consumer UPI volume. Market price currently stabilizes around **₹1,115**, with brokerages setting upside targets near **₹1,375**. **Nykaa (FSN E-Commerce)** Strong demand during festive sales propelled a **142%** rise in net profit, reaching **₹63.3 crore**. Revenue climbed **27%** to **₹2,873 crore**. The company expanded its specialized retail footprint to **276 stores**, maintaining a double-digit same-store sales growth. **PB Fintech (Policybazaar)** The insurance aggregator reported a **37%** revenue increase, with net profit soaring **164%**. While operational efficiency has improved, the stock remains down **18%** year-to-date, mirroring the cautious sentiment toward high-growth digital platforms. Emerging Trends & IPO Pipeline Market sentiment is shifting from "growth at any cost" to a focus on cash flow and margin stability. This maturity is evident in the robust IPO pipeline for 2026. Nearly **14 companies** aim to raise over **₹20,000 crore** in the coming months. High-profile listings such as **PhonePe**, **Jio**, and **Lenskart** are expected to hit the market within the next six months. Lenskart, in particular, has seen renewed interest with target prices established around **₹600** by major brokerages. Sector-wide, IT spending in India is projected to reach **₹15.14 lakh crore** by the end of 2026. This growth is increasingly driven by data-center expansion and the integration of native digital service models, despite a global cooling in traditional software exports.
Global Market Performance vs. US Market Equities
U.S. investors are orchestrating a massive structural shift in capital, moving billions away from domestic equities to break a decade of "home bias." For the first time in years, international markets are outperforming the S\&P 500 by significant margins, signaling a potential end to the era of American exceptionalism. Global markets outside the U.S. delivered a staggering 31% return in dollar terms throughout 2025. This performance outpaced U.S. equities by more than 1,500 basis points, the widest gap recorded since 1993. The rotation is driven by a stark valuation disconnect: U.S. stocks currently trade at a 34% premium over international peers, well above the long-term historical average of 19%. Emerging Markets (EM) have emerged as the surprise leaders of this cycle. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index surged 34% in 2025, nearly doubling the S\&P 500’s 18% return. Despite this rally, EM remains deeply undervalued at 13.5x forward earnings, representing a 40% discount compared to the U.S. market. Japan and Europe are also capturing significant inflows. Japan is benefiting from structural corporate reforms and a return of inflation, while European markets—led by Germany’s DAX—have seen strong gains in defense, banks, and industrials. Investors are increasingly drawn to these regions for dividend yields that are often twice as high as those found in the U.S. The U.S. dollar, long a headwind for international returns, fell roughly 8% in late 2025. This weakening trend has removed a major barrier for American investors, boosting the value of foreign holdings when converted back to dollars. Narrowing interest rate differentials and stronger economic activity abroad suggest the dollar’s decade-long uptrend may be cooling. Concentration risk in the U.S. remains a primary concern. The top 10 companies now represent over 40% of the S\&P 500, with much of that value tied to intensive AI capital expenditure. While AI remains a core growth theme, many investors are diversifying into "AI laggards" in Europe and Asia that offer more attractive entry points. Capital flow data confirms the trend is accelerating. In late 2025, U.S. residents increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities by nearly 35 billion in a single month. As corporate earnings growth begins to narrow between the U.S. and the rest of the world, this global reallocation is expected to remain a dominant theme through 2026. [Global Equity Performance Analysis](https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DqkaDISrJ0lQ) This video provides a detailed breakdown of why international markets began outperforming the U.S. in 2025 and analyzes the historic valuation gap between these regions.
Silver and Gold Prices Surge Amid US-Iran Tensions and Tariff Uncertainty
Precious Metals Market Brief: February 23, 2026 Gold and silver prices surged this Monday as geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts redirected global capital into safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose **0.8%** to reach **$5,148.08** per ounce, maintaining its position above the critical **$5,000** threshold. Silver followed with a stronger gain of **2%**, climbing to **$86.52** per ounce. In India, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) reflected this upward momentum. Gold futures held steady near **₹1,59,420** per 10 grams, while silver prices in major metros like Delhi and Mumbai were quoted at approximately **₹2,74,900** per kilogram. Trade Policy and Geopolitical Catalysts The primary driver for today's rally is the escalating trade tension following a landmark US Supreme Court decision. The court struck down President Donald Trump’s broad tariff powers, ruling the use of emergency laws to levy reciprocal duties was unlawful. In immediate retaliation, President Trump announced a temporary **15%** global tariff on imports, up from the previous **10%**. This move has heightened market uncertainty, causing India to postpone scheduled trade talks with the US and prompting European officials to reassess their trade commitments. Simultaneously, persistent US-Iran tensions have fueled risk aversion. Investors are increasingly pivoting away from volatile equities and moving toward bullion to hedge against potential regional escalations. Domestic Regulatory Shifts and Liquidity Trading conditions in India have become significantly more favorable for participants. The MCX and NSE recently withdrew additional margin requirements that were previously imposed to curb extreme volatility. The removal of the **3%** additional margin on gold and the **7%** additional margin on silver has dramatically improved capital efficiency. This reduction in the cost of carry is expected to boost trading volumes and encourage broader participation in precious metal futures. Despite the recent rally, silver remains in a consolidation phase. It has recovered roughly **₹20,000** from its February 18 low of **₹2,55,000**, though it still sits well below its January all-time high of **₹4,10,000**. Technical Outlook and Sentiment Market analysts note that gold continues to show relative strength compared to silver. The gold-silver ratio remains elevated, reflecting gold's superior performance as a defensive asset during this period of high-frequency news cycles. Support for gold is currently established in the **$4,964** to **$4,915** range, with resistance anticipated between **$5,055** and **$5,122**. For silver, immediate support is seen at **₹2,38,000** on the MCX, with upside resistance nearing **₹2,54,400**. Long-term sentiment remains bullish, supported by consistent central bank demand. Global institutions are projected to average **585 tonnes** of quarterly gold demand throughout 2026 as they diversify official reserves away from fiat currencies.
US Supreme Court Ruling on Trump Tariffs: Global Market Implications
Global markets have entered a period of volatile relief following a landmark February 20, 2026, ruling by the US Supreme Court. In a 6-3 decision, the Court struck down sweeping global tariffs, ruling that the executive branch exceeded its authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. This decision has effectively lowered the trade-weighted average US tariff rate from 15.4% to approximately 8.3%. Investors and trade partners are currently assessing the impact of this legal reset, which invalidates country-specific "reciprocal" duties and emergency levies that had generated over $175 billion in revenue. Financial markets responded immediately to the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 207 points to reach 49,602, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.52% to 6,895. This rally reflects short-term optimism as businesses anticipate a more predictable trade environment and the potential for billions of dollars in tariff refunds. However, the relief may be temporary. Within hours of the ruling, the administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a new 10% global import surcharge. This was quickly adjusted on February 21 to a 15% global tariff framework. Unlike the previous emergency levies, these new duties are subject to a 150-day statutory limit unless extended by Congress. Key sectors remain under pressure. The Court’s ruling does not affect industry-specific duties on steel, aluminum, and automotive imports, which remain in place under separate national security authorities. For major partners like India, the effective tariff burden has shifted from 18% under previous deals to 15% under the current revised framework. Global trade dynamics are now focused on legislative hurdles. With the 150-day window active for the new 15% tariffs, the focus shifts to the US Congress, which now holds a more central role in determining trade policy. Markets are bracing for continued uncertainty as the administration explores alternative legal avenues to maintain its trade agenda. Current economic indicators suggest that while the ruling provides a structural check on executive power, the broader trend of economic nationalism persists. Analysts expect persistent price pressures, as the effective US tariff rate remains significantly higher than the 3% level seen at the start of 2025. Trade partners including the EU, China, and Canada are now re-evaluating bilateral agreements that may have been rendered obsolete by the Court's decision.
Impact of IT Sector Performance on Mutual Fund Returns and SIP Portfolios
Market Brief: Indian IT Sector & Mutual Fund Impact The Indian IT sector is navigating a significant period of volatility as of **February 2026**. Concerns over **Artificial Intelligence (AI)** disruption and slowing global discretionary spend have triggered a sharp correction in frontline tech stocks. The **Nifty IT Index** has faced intense selling pressure, dropping approximately **16%** over the last month. Year-on-year, the index has declined by more than **21%**, currently trading near its 52-week lows around the **32,000** mark. Key Market Data * **Nifty IT Index:** ~32,004 (down **0.98%** in the latest session) * **Monthly Decline:** **16-17%** * **Annual Decline:** **21.69%** * **Major Stock Hits:** * **TCS:** Down **29%** from 52-week high * **Infosys:** Down **27%** from 52-week high * **Wipro & Oracle:** Crashed over **30%** from recent peaks Mutual Fund Exposure & Investor Sentiment Indian retail investors are feeling the heat as diversified equity funds hold significant exposure to the IT sector. Mutual funds currently have approximately **₹4,00,000 crore** at stake in IT stocks. However, fund managers have started trimming positions. In **January 2026**, mutual funds were net sellers in **9 out of 10** major IT companies. **ICICI Prudential AMC** alone offloaded nearly **₹1,953 crore** in Infosys and **₹783 crore** in TCS during this period. The AI Disruption Factor The "AI Scare" is no longer theoretical. Reports suggest that generative AI and automation are delivering productivity gains of **20% to 40%** in core tasks like coding and testing. This shift is eroding the traditional billable-hours model of Indian IT services. Market experts indicate that global capital is shifting toward AI infrastructure and software platforms, potentially contracting the services share of tech spend by **8 percentage points** through 2026. Portfolio Implications For investors with **SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans)** or lump sum holdings in diversified and large-cap funds, the IT slump is a drag on overall returns. While the broader **Nifty 50** remains relatively resilient with an annual gain of over **11%**, the IT sector's underperformance is creating a stark divergence. The **India AI Impact Summit 2026** held in New Delhi highlighted that companies must now pivot from "outsourcing" to "AI-led transformation" to regain investor confidence. Investors are closely watching the **₹31,400 - ₹32,000** support levels for the Nifty IT index. A breach below these levels could signal further downside for technology-heavy portfolios. This video provides a deep dive into how AI is fundamentally changing the revenue models of major Indian IT firms. [AI Impact on Indian IT Stocks 2026](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkqR0lvOI2M) http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
Indian Benchmark Indices Rise on Domestic and Global Cues
Market Brief: Indian Equities Surge on US Tariff Ruling Indian benchmark indices opened with significant gains on Monday, February 23, 2026. The BSE Sensex climbed over **600 points** to cross the **83,300** mark, while the Nifty 50 advanced past **25,700**. This rally follows a pivotal legal development in the United States that has reshaped global trade expectations. The primary catalyst was the US Supreme Court's Friday decision to strike down President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs. The court ruled 6-3 that the administration exceeded its authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This judgment effectively invalidated a central pillar of recent US trade policy, which had been a major source of volatility for emerging markets. Market sentiment was further bolstered by the prospect of significant corporate refunds. Estimates suggest over **$175 billion** in previously collected US tariffs could be subject to potential claims. In India, export-oriented sectors such as IT, Pharmaceuticals, and Textiles are leading the gains as the effective tariff burden on Indian goods is expected to ease toward **10%**, down from earlier peaks near **25%**. Global cues remain cautiously optimistic. While the court ruling provides immediate relief, the US administration has already responded by announcing a new **15%** global tariff rate through alternative legal channels. However, investors view the judicial intervention as a vital check on executive trade power, leading to a more predictable—if still contested—trade environment. Domestic institutional investors supported the rally, acting as net buyers of equities worth **₹2,637 crore** in recent sessions. This offset continued selling by foreign portfolio investors. Additionally, a **1%** drop in crude oil prices on Monday further eased inflationary concerns for the Indian economy. Gains are broad-based across Dalal Street, with heavyweight stocks in the banking and auto sectors showing strong momentum. The GIFT Nifty had earlier signaled this gap-up start, trading at a premium of **163 points** before the domestic market opening. This [Sensex and Nifty analysis](https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DR30v98u3eO8) provides a deeper look into how the US Supreme Court decision specifically impacts Indian export sectors.
Ola Electric to Reduce Physical Store Count
Market Brief: Ola Electric Strategic Pivot **Network Consolidation and Retail Reset** Ola Electric is aggressively scaling back its physical footprint as part of a "structural reset." The company aims to reduce its store network to approximately **550 outlets** by the end of March 2026. This is a significant reversal from earlier ambitions to reach 4,000 locations. Currently operating about 700 stores, the planned closure of another **150 sites** is intended to align costs with a cooling demand environment and a "leaner" operating model. **Financial Performance and Revenue Contraction** Latest Q3 FY26 results highlight severe operational pressure. Revenue from operations plummeted **55% year-on-year** to **₹470 crore**, down from ₹1,045 crore in the same period last year. Despite the top-line slide, net losses narrowed slightly to **₹487 crore** (from ₹564 crore), aided by a **43% reduction** in total expenses. Gross margins improved to **34.3%**, supported by vertical integration and the new Gen 3 platform. **Market Share Erosion** The company’s dominance in the electric two-wheeler segment has faded. Market share, which stood at **26%** a year ago, fell to **6.3%** in January 2026. Preliminary data for February 2026 indicates a further drop to approximately **4.2%**, placing Ola behind legacy players like TVS Motor (**28%**) and Bajaj Auto (**21%**), and even startup rival Ather Energy. **Volume and Delivery Metrics** Vehicle deliveries for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, totaled **32,680 units**, representing a **61% decline** compared to the previous year. To achieve EBITDA breakeven, management estimates a requirement of **15,000 units** per month. However, current monthly registration averages remain below this threshold, with February mid-month figures showing just **2,252 units** sold. **Stock Market Dynamics** The stock remains under heavy pressure, recently hitting a 52-week low of **₹28.71** before fluctuating around the **₹26–₹27** range. While recent trading sessions saw a massive volume surge of over **4.4 crore shares** suggesting potential accumulation, the technical outlook remains bearish. The stock is currently trading nearly **65% below** its post-listing peak, with a market capitalization stabilizing around **₹11,700–₹12,300 crore**. **Operational Outlook** The "Hyperservice" program is the primary internal focus to resolve brand trust issues. The company reports that **80% of service tickets** are now closed within the same day. Simultaneously, the Gigafactory is scaling toward **6 GWh** of installed capacity by March 2026 to deepen vertical integration and lower long-term unit costs.
UPL Shares Trade Below 100-Day EMA Following Price Decline
Global Market Brief: February 23, 2026 Global financial markets are navigating a complex landscape defined by shifting trade policies and a pivot in monetary strategy. After a period of aggressive intervention, the narrative has moved toward stabilization and the management of geopolitical friction. Equities and Indices US equity markets show resilience despite ongoing volatility. The **S&P 500** recently traded near **6,900**, while the **Nasdaq Composite** pushed toward **22,800**. Market leadership remains concentrated, with high-weight stocks like Alphabet and Amazon providing a buffer against broader uncertainty. In India, the **BSE Sensex** has crossed the **83,000** milestone, supported by strong domestic institutional buying. The **Nifty 50** maintains its position above **25,600**. This performance reflects a decoupling from some Asian peers, such as the **Nikkei 225**, which faced pressure earlier in the session. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has paused its easing cycle, holding the federal funds rate in the **3.5% to 3.75%** range. Projections for the remainder of 2026 suggest a cautious approach, with potentially only one additional **25-basis-point** cut. The "neutral rate" is now widely estimated between **3.0% and 3.5%**. This shift from active cutting to a "simultaneous hold" reflects a stabilization in labor markets, where unemployment has settled near **4.4%**. Trade and Commodities Trade policy remains a primary source of market noise. Following judicial challenges to blanket tariffs, a new **15%** global tariff structure has been introduced. This has heightened concerns regarding global growth prospects and supply chain costs. Energy and metal markets are responding to these shifts: * **Crude Oil:** Prices have fluctuated near **$73** per barrel. * **Gold:** Bullion maintains strength, holding levels above **$5,100** as a hedge against trade-related risks. Technology and Digital Assets The technology sector is undergoing a valuation reset. While AI investment continues to drive **13–15%** earnings growth expectations for top-tier firms, investors are increasingly scrutinizing the immediate ROI on massive capital expenditures. In the digital asset space, **Bitcoin** has seen a correction, recently trading near **$64,800**. This downward pressure is attributed to increased "whale" selling and a general risk-off sentiment triggered by the new tariff environment. Economic Indicators Global growth for 2026 is projected at a subdued **2.6%**. While advanced economies show resilience, emerging markets are facing an uneven recovery. Inflation remains a persistent theme, with core PCE projected to end the year at approximately **2.4%**.
Retail Investor Strategy Amidst Nifty Bear Market Trends
Market Brief: Retail Trading Dynamics **February 23, 2026** Indian retail investors are increasingly adopting a "contrarian" stance, though data suggests this approach is challenging personal portfolio health. Recent market tracking reveals a persistent pattern: individual investors are aggressively buying stocks during sharp declines while liquidating positions as prices recover. While this behavior provides essential liquidity to the broader market, it has led to a noticeable divergence in returns. In the most recent quarter, retail holdings surged in over **1,019 companies** where share prices fell by an average of **8.6%**. Conversely, retail exposure was reduced in **1,092 companies** that saw price appreciation. Capital Flows and Market Anchors Domestic liquidity remains the primary stabilizer for Indian equities. Monthly SIP inflows have reached a historic range of **₹25,000 crore to ₹30,000 crore**, effectively cushioning the impact of volatile foreign outflows. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have remained cautious, influenced by a weaker Rupee trading near **₹90.70** and shifting global yields. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continue to act as net buyers, frequently absorbing sell-offs with daily net purchases often exceeding **₹1,100 crore**. Sector Performance and Volatility Market sentiment is currently defined by sharp sectoral rotations. The **Nifty 50** and **Sensex** have faced pressure from a significant correction in the IT sector, which plunged over **8.2%** in a single week due to global technology shifts. * **Nifty 50** is hovering near the **25,800–26,000** resistance zone. * **Banking** remains a pillar of strength, with the **Bank Nifty** maintaining levels above **60,000**. * **Small-cap indices** have shown relative resilience, occasionally gaining while large-caps consolidate. The Cost of Active Trading Regulatory and fiscal changes are further impacting the profitability of frequent retail trading. Following the **Budget 2026** adjustments, the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on derivatives has increased to **0.15%**. This change specifically targets high-frequency strategies. For active traders, these incremental costs can significantly erode net gains, particularly as historical data indicates that over **90%** of individual F&O participants have struggled to maintain profitability. Outlook on Domestic Demand Despite technical volatility, India’s economic fundamentals remain robust. GDP growth for the current fiscal year is projected between **7.5% and 7.8%**, supported by a decade-low average inflation rate of approximately **1.8%**. Retail participation has matured structurally, with direct plan adoption rising to **26%**. While "buying the dip" remains a popular retail tactic, the shift toward long-term systematic plans is providing a more stable foundation for the market compared to the speculative cycles of previous years.
Impact of Valuations on IT Stock Resilience Against AI Disruption: S Naren Analysis
The Indian Information Technology sector is currently navigating a period of significant structural adjustment. As of late February 2026, the Nifty IT index reflects this volatility, trading near the **32,004** level. This represents a decline of approximately **0.98%** in recent sessions and a more substantial correction of nearly **21%** over the past year. Market valuations have retreated from previous peaks, with the sectoral Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio now hovering around **22.74**. While these levels appear more attractive compared to the historical highs of the post-pandemic era, institutional experts suggest caution. S Naren of ICICI Prudential AMC notes that low multiples alone do not provide a sufficient safety net in a disrupting landscape. The primary source of uncertainty is the accelerating impact of Artificial Intelligence. Industry leaders have highlighted a massive shift in the global workforce, projecting that while AI could put **90 million** traditional tech roles at risk, it may simultaneously create **170 million** new opportunities. This "root-and-branch" transformation is forcing companies to pivot from routine development and testing toward high-skill AI engineering and agentic workflow design. Quarterly earnings for the period ending December 2025 further underscore the sector's current strain. Major players like Infosys reported a **2.2%** year-on-year decline in net profit to **6,654 crore**, while LTIMindtree saw a sharp **30.7%** profit drop to **971 crore**. These figures highlight the immediate pressure from rising operational costs and one-time regulatory expenses, even as deal pipelines remain active. Investor sentiment remains tethered to long-term growth clarity. While a correction in global AI-linked stocks could trigger a relative outperformance for Indian equities, the sector's upside depends on whether AI enhances or impairs the traditional services model. Currently, Tier 2 companies are showing more agility, often outperforming Tier 1 giants in revenue growth during this transition. For the sector to regain decisive momentum, it must move beyond mere cost-optimization. High dividend yields and lower entry prices are providing some downside protection, but the market is still waiting for proof that Indian IT can successfully monetize the AI transition without permanent impairment to industry margins. This video analyzes the recent sell-off in major IT stocks and evaluates whether current valuations represent a value trap or a long-term buying opportunity.
Hyundai Motor and Four Other Stocks Demonstrate Bullish RSI Upswings
Market Brief: Nifty 500 Technical Breakouts The Nifty 500 index reached **23,395.00** on February 20, 2026, marking a **0.4%** rise amid a broader market recovery. Technical scans have identified a cluster of high-momentum stocks, led by Hyundai Motor India and Siemens, which have cleared significant resistance levels and bullish RSI crossovers. Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI) Hyundai Motor India emerged as a top gainer, surging **5.16%** to close at **2,293.40**. The stock successfully crossed its **200-day Moving Average (DMA)** of **2,246.15**, signaling a potential shift into a long-term uptrend. Trading volume saw a significant spike, reaching over **942,000** shares, nearly double the **20-day average**. Technical indicators show a weekly stochastic crossover, which historically precedes an average price gain of **7.5%** over the subsequent seven weeks. Despite recent revenue contraction of **1.74%**, the company maintains a healthy **Return on Equity (ROE)** of **34.83%**. Siemens Ltd (SIEMENS) Siemens demonstrated robust strength, gaining **3.41%** to end at **3,206.20**. The stock cleared its **200-DMA** of **3,151.76** and is currently trading above all major moving averages, including the **5, 20, 50, and 100-day** marks. In the last month, Siemens has outpaced the broader market with a **13.21%** return, compared to the Sensex's **0.90%** rise. While momentum oscillators like the RSI have crossed above the **50** mark, indicating strengthening price action, the stock is approaching a neutral-to-overbought zone on monthly charts. Momentum Trends in Nifty 500 Several other constituents have mirrored this bullish behavior, crossing above their **50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)**: * **JSW Energy**: Gained **2.9%** to reach **494.00**, trading **2.8%** above its 50-day average. * **Granules India**: Rose **3.6%** to **599.10**, clearing its 50-day resistance by **2.7%**. * **Canara Bank**: Increased **3.2%** to **154.20**, maintaining a **2.6%** cushion above its SMA. The collective RSI crossover above **50** for these five stocks suggests that the prevailing sentiment is shifting from consolidation to active accumulation. Traders are currently monitoring the **2,345** target for Hyundai and the **3,250** resistance zone for Siemens as immediate benchmarks for short-term momentum continuation.
Gaudium IVF IPO: Current GMP, Subscription Data, and Analyst Reviews
Gaudium IVF and Women Health Limited has extended its momentum into Day 2 of its initial public offering, fueled by robust participation from retail investors. As of February 23, 2026, the issue has seen a significant uptick in demand, building on a strong opening day that recorded an 88% overall subscription rate. The IPO, which aims to raise 165 crore, is priced in a band of 75 to 79 per share. Market sentiment remains positive, with the Grey Market Premium (GMP) holding steady at approximately 8.5 to 11 per share. This indicates a potential listing gain of nearly 11% over the upper price band. Retail interest has been the primary driver of the offering, with this segment already oversubscribed at 1.37 times on the first day. The company is offering a mix of a fresh issue worth 90 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) totaling 75 crore. Financially, Gaudium IVF has demonstrated a consistent growth trajectory. Revenue from operations climbed to 70.72 crore in FY25, up from 47.89 crore the previous year. Profitability remains a core strength, with the company reporting a net profit of 19.13 crore for FY25 and maintaining healthy EBITDA margins of approximately 40%. The proceeds from the fresh issue are earmarked for an aggressive expansion strategy. The company plans to allocate 50 crore to establish 19 new IVF centers across India, aiming to solidify its presence in a fragmented but rapidly growing market. An additional 20 crore will be utilized for the repayment of outstanding borrowings. India’s fertility services sector is currently valued at approximately 1.54 billion USD and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.7% to 17.5% over the next decade. Key drivers include rising infertility awareness, delayed parenthood trends, and increasing disposable income among urban populations. Brokerages have largely issued "Subscribe" ratings, pointing to the company’s high return on equity (ROE) of 41.31% and its first-mover advantage as a pure-play listed fertility specialist. However, analysts also highlight a premium valuation of 28 to 30 times FY25 earnings and a pending 31 crore tax dispute as factors for cautious monitoring. The subscription window closes on February 24, 2026, with the basis of allotment expected to be finalized by February 25. Shares are scheduled to debut on the BSE and NSE on February 27, 2026.