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Kiaasa Retail IPO: Key Details and GMP Overview
Kiaasa Retail Limited has launched its initial public offering (IPO) today, **February 23, 2026**, seeking to raise **Rs 69.72 crore**. The company, a prominent player in the women's ethnic and fusion wear segment, is offering **54.90 lakh** fresh equity shares. The price band is fixed between **Rs 121 and Rs 127** per share. Investors must bid for a minimum lot of **1,000 shares**, though retail participants are required to bid for at least **2 lots**, bringing the minimum investment to **Rs 2,54,000**. Grey market activity suggests a muted debut, with the Grey Market Premium (GMP) currently holding at **Rs 0**. This indicates that the unofficial market is not factoring in immediate listing gains. The company's expansion strategy is the primary driver of this capital raise. Of the total proceeds, **Rs 46.45 crore** is earmarked for opening new stores. Kiaasa currently operates **124 outlets** across **70 cities**, with plans to add **41 more** in the current cycle and **20 additional** stores in FY27. Financial performance for FY25 showed strong momentum. Total income reached **Rs 121 crore**, up from **Rs 85 crore** in FY24. Profit after tax (PAT) rose to **Rs 8.38 crore**, representing significant year-on-year growth compared to the **Rs 5.74 crore** reported previously. The brand utilizes a diverse operational framework including **FOFO** (Franchise Owned Franchise Operated), **COCO** (Company Owned Company Operated), and **FICO** (Franchise Invested Company Operated) models. While it has a growing national footprint, revenue remains concentrated in northern regions, with Uttar Pradesh alone contributing roughly **28.8%** of total earnings. The subscription window remains open until **Wednesday, February 25, 2026**. Allotment is expected to be finalized on **February 26**, with the official listing on the **BSE SME** platform scheduled for **March 2, 2026**. This offering comes amid a broader shift in the Indian ethnic wear market toward "wearable luxury" and fusion styles, a sector projected to maintain steady growth through 2026 as consumer preferences lean toward affordable, high-quality fashion in Tier-II and Tier-III cities.
Clean Max Enviro IPO: Brokerage Reviews, GMP, and Subscription Status
**Market Brief: CleanMax Enviro Energy IPO** **IPO Launch and Market Sentiment** The subscription window for CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions opens today, Monday, February 23, and will remain available until Wednesday, February 25. This **ā¹3,100 crore** public issue is a major test for the renewable energy sector in a cautious primary market. The current Grey Market Premium (GMP) is sitting at a marginal **ā¹3 to ā¹7**, indicating a potential listing gain of less than **1%** over the upper price band of **ā¹1,053**. **Pricing and Participation** The price band is fixed between **ā¹1,000 and ā¹1,053** per equity share. Retail investors can participate with a minimum investment of **ā¹14,742** for a lot of 14 shares. The issue is structured with a fresh equity component of **ā¹1,200 crore** and an Offer for Sale (OFS) of **ā¹1,900 crore** from existing promoters and investors, including Brookfield-backed entities. **Strategic Deleveraging** A primary objective of the fresh capital is the repayment of debt. Approximately **ā¹1,123 crore** of the proceeds is earmarked to reduce the company's significant borrowing, which stood at roughly **ā¹10,121 crore** as of late 2025. This move is intended to lower interest expenses and improve net margins, which have only recently turned positive. **Operational Footprint** CleanMax is Indiaās largest renewable energy provider in the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector. As of late 2025, it maintained an operational, owned, and managed capacity of **2.80 GW**, with a massive pipeline of **3.17 GW** under contract. The business model relies on long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with a weighted average tenure of nearly **23 years**, providing significant revenue visibility. **Financial Performance** The company reported a total income of **ā¹1,610 crore** for FY25, achieving a slim profit of **ā¹19.43 crore** after consecutive years of losses. While EBITDA margins have shown strong growthāclimbing to over **60%**āthe valuation remains a point of contention. At the upper price band, the IPO is priced at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple exceeding **380x**, significantly higher than several established peers. **Investor Outlook** Analysts are maintaining a neutral to cautious stance. While the structural shift toward green energy and a blue-chip corporate client base offer long-term appeal, the aggressive valuation and heavy debt levels may cap short-term upside. Market participants are closely watching subscription levels in the institutional and retail segments to gauge whether the "green theme" can overcome the current trend of muted listing debuts.
9 Stocks Cross Above 200-Day Moving Average
Market Technical Brief: February 23, 2026 The global equity landscape remains defined by a critical technical threshold: the **200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)**. As of late February 2026, major indices continue to use this level as the primary barometer for long-term health. As long as a stock or index maintains its price above this daily timeframe line, the structural uptrend is considered intact. The **S&P 500** currently reflects this resilience, trading at approximately **6,874**. Despite a "confused sea" of sector rotation, the index has remained above its **200-day SMA** since mid-May of last year. This sustained position confirms a bullish primary trend, even as the index sits roughly **0.99%** below its January all-time highs. Sector Performance and Deviations Market bifurcation is extreme, with several sectors showing significant extension above their moving averages: * **Energy and Materials** have surged, with some constituents trading **3 standard deviations** above their mean. * **Industrials** have gained **12%** year-to-date, maintaining a steep elevation over the rising **200-day SMA**. * **Technology** remains a primary focus, acting as a support floor at the **135** level for key sector ETFs. While the broad trend is positive, the risk of "extension risk" is rising in overextended sectors. Conversely, **Financials** recently faced pressure, briefly breaking below their long-term average before attempting to recover the trend line. Global Indices and Indicators In international markets, the **Nifty 50** closed recently at **25,571**, with technical scans showing a cluster of large-cap stocks successfully crossing back above their **200-day SMA** to reclaim bullish status. Momentum remains sensitive to macroeconomic data, specifically the **Core PCE Price Index**, which recently showed a **3.0%** year-over-year acceleration. Volatility, measured by the **VIX**, has ticked up to **13.29**, signaling increased nervousness. However, as long as the price action does not breach the November lowsāspecifically the **6,521** level for the S&P 500āthe long-term diagonal advance is expected to persist. Traders are currently using the **200-day SMA** not just as a trend indicator, but as a hard "stop-loss" level to protect capital during this period of high dispersion. The market surface appears calm with a realized volatility of only **3%**, yet the underlying rotation suggests active shifts between value and growth narratives.
Global Markets Mixed as Asian Equities Stabilize and Dollar Eases Amid Tariff Uncertainty
As of late February 2026, global financial markets are navigating a complex landscape of legal shifts and high-stakes corporate reporting. Regional indices in Asia have recently traded mostly lower, with Japanās Nikkei 225 sliding **1.3%** and Australiaās S&P/ASX 200 dipping **0.15%**. The U.S. dollar index remains firm near recent highs, though it faces long-term pressure from shifting trade policies. Investor sentiment is currently caught between cooling domestic growthāwith the flash U.S. Composite PMI falling to **52.3**āand a significant judicial pivot regarding international trade. The Tariff Reset A landmark Supreme Court ruling on February 20, 2026, invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for broad tariff imposition. This decision effectively struck down several 2025 trade barriers that had increased the average tax burden per U.S. household by roughly **$1,000**. The administration has quickly pivoted, proposing new **10%** to **15%** tariffs under Section 122. While this creates a temporary reprieve for Asian exporters, the weighted average applied tariff rate is still projected to sit at **6.7%** for the year, the highest since the 1970s. Tech and Energy Volatility The technology sector is braced for Nvidiaās fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report on February 25. Analysts expect revenue to hit **$65.6 billion**, a **65%** year-over-year increase. Despite recent "underwhelming" price action, the stock remains the primary anchor for the Nasdaq, which recently gained **0.8%** on the back of new AI infrastructure partnerships. In the commodities space, energy markets are balancing geopolitical risk with diplomatic efforts. Brent crude futures are hovering near **$67.50**, while WTI crude remains around **$62.38**. Prices have eased slightly as negotiators in Geneva move forward with U.S.-Iran talks. However, the market remains sensitive to "war premiums"; estimates suggest that a total disruption of Iranian exports could spike Brent prices to an average of **$91** per barrel by the end of 2026. Economic Outlook The U.S. economy continues to show resilience but is signaling a transition phase. While the Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at a target range of **3.25%ā3.50%**, market participants are pricing in an additional **50 to 75 basis point** cut by the end of the year. The labor market is cooling as intended, with payroll growth decelerating. This is expected to push the unemployment rate toward the **mid-4%** range in early 2026, even as consumer spending remains stable due to high asset prices and recent tax adjustments.
Clean Max IPO: Long-Term Growth Potential and Risk Profile
Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions (CleanMax), Indiaās leading renewable energy provider for the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector, is launching its Initial Public Offering (IPO) today, **February 23, 2026**. The company has set a price band of **ā¹1,000 to ā¹1,053** per equity share. The total issue size is valued at **ā¹3,100 crore**, a reduction from the initially planned **ā¹5,200 crore**. IPO Structure and Timeline The public offer consists of: * **ā¹1,200 crore** in fresh equity issuance. * **ā¹1,900 crore** through an Offer for Sale (OFS) by existing promoters and investors. The subscription window closes on **February 25, 2026**. Shares are expected to be allotted on **February 26**, with a tentative listing on the BSE and NSE scheduled for **March 2, 2026**. Retail investors can participate with a minimum lot size of **14 shares**, requiring an investment of **ā¹14,742** at the upper price band. Financial Performance and Capital Usage CleanMax has demonstrated a significant financial turnaround. After reporting losses in previous years, the company achieved a profit of **ā¹19.43 crore** in FY25. For the first half of the current fiscal year (ending September 30, 2025), it recorded a profit of **ā¹19.00 crore** on a total income of **ā¹969.35 crore**. The company intends to use approximately **ā¹1,122.67 crore** of the fresh proceeds to repay or prepay existing borrowings. This move aims to deleverage a balance sheet that carried over **ā¹10,121 crore** in total debt as of late 2025. Market Position and Operations CleanMax maintains the largest market share in India's C&I renewable segment. As of October 2025, its portfolio reached: * **2.80 GW** of operational owned and managed capacity. * **3.17 GW** of contracted capacity currently under execution. The company serves a blue-chip client base of over **555 corporate customers**, including global tech giants like Google, Apple, and Amazon. Its revenue model is secured by long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with an average duration of **22.85 years**. Sector Trends and Outlook The C&I segment has emerged as a primary growth driver for Indian renewables in 2026. This shift is fueled by rising grid tariffs and corporate "Net Zero" commitments. Open access solar and wind projects now account for **34%** of new capacity additions, up significantly from just **5%** in 2019. While CleanMax faces competition from peers like Adani Green and NTPC Green, its focus on the high-margin corporate "behind-the-meter" and open access markets provides a specialized niche. Investors are monitoring the high debt-to-equity ratio of **2.53** and geographic concentration, as nearly **79%** of power sales revenue currently originates from Karnataka and Gujarat.
RBI projected to provide ā¹5 trillion liquidity in FY27
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain its proactive liquidity management strategy by injecting approximately ā¹5 lakh crore into the financial system during the upcoming fiscal year. This massive capital infusion is designed to address a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the bond market while ensuring the efficient transmission of previous interest rate cuts. As of February 2026, the central bank has held the benchmark repo rate steady at 5.25% following a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points over the past year. To complement these rate actions, the RBI has already deployed record-breaking tools, including buying bonds worth ā¹6.5 lakh crore and executing ā¹4.7 lakh crore in currency swaps throughout 2025. The upcoming liquidity operations focus on absorbing the heavy supply of government securities. With the fiscal deficit for FY26 budgeted at 4.4% of GDP and gross market borrowings projected at ā¹14.8 lakh crore, the influx of bonds threatens to push yields higher. The RBIās planned infusion aims to stabilize these borrowing costs and provide "durable liquidity" to a banking system that has seen surpluses fluctuate between ā¹1.5 lakh crore and ā¹3.4 lakh crore. Economic growth remains a key driver for these interventions. Indiaās GDP growth forecast for FY26 has been revised upward to 7.4%, supported by resilient domestic demand and robust services activity. Meanwhile, headline inflation has remained benign, projected at approximately 2.1% for the full year. This "Goldilocks" environmentācharacterized by high growth and low inflationāprovides the central bank with the necessary room to focus on market liquidity without fueling price pressures. Market participants are particularly focused on the yield of the 10-year benchmark bond, which recently saw significant volatility. Yields dropped sharply to around 6.53% following the announcement of localized liquidity measures, but analysts anticipate they could range between 6.6% and 6.75% as the new auction calendar commences. By utilizing a combination of Open Market Operations (OMOs) and long-term US dollar-rupee swaps, the RBI intends to keep the overnight call money rate aligned with the repo rate. These operations are vital for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and small businesses, as they lower the overall cost of capital and encourage credit flow into productive sectors of the economy.
Global Capital Inflows Drive Latin American Equities Concluding the Rally
Latin American Markets Reach Multi-Year Highs Latin American equity markets are currently experiencing their most significant investor inflows in over a decade. This surge in liquidity has propelled major indices in **Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico** to multi-year peaks, as global capital reallocates toward emerging markets offering high real yields. The **MSCI EM Latin America Index** has climbed over **20%** in 2026, recently touching an 11-year high. This performance outpaces the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which has seen an **11%** rise over the same period. Brazil: Record Breaking Performance The **Ibovespa** has achieved a historic milestone, reaching the **190,000-point** mark for the first time. The index has gained **15%** in local currency and an impressive **21%** in dollar terms since the start of the year. Foreign investors are the primary drivers of this rally, injecting **R$ 34.67 billion** into the Brazilian stock exchange as of mid-February. Markets are pricing in an aggressive easing cycle, with expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates by **250 basis points** to reach **12.5%** by year-end. Colombia: All-Time Highs Colombiaās **MSCI COLCAP** index has surged to an all-time high of **2,424 points**. Over the last 12 months, the Colombian market has delivered a staggering return of **74.1%**, significantly outperforming regional peers. Growth in the Andean nation is bolstered by record highs in commodity prices, specifically gold and copper. Investors are also monitoring the upcoming election cycle, though current momentum remains driven by a **57.3%** concentration in the financial sector, which has benefited from robust local earnings. Mexico: Stability and Nearshoring Gains The **S&P/BMV IPC** index in Mexico has accumulated a gain of nearly **18%** this year, currently trading around the **71,436** level. The market is benefiting from the "nearshoring" trend and the stabilization of trade rhetoric within the USMCA framework. While IPO activity remains cautious, the inclusion of **BMV IPC futures** on global exchanges has increased international visibility. Analysts project a modest GDP recovery of **1.3%** for 2026, supported by strong consumption and manufacturing exports. Regional Economic Indicators The "LA7" economiesācomprising Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Ecuadorāare projected to grow at an average rate of **1.9%** in 2026. Inflation across the region is expected to hover around **4.3%**. Despite some fiscal concerns in an election-heavy year, the combination of high commodity prices and shifting monetary policies continues to make the region a "stable spot" for global portfolios.
Market Spotlight: IDFC First Bank, Vedanta, Ola Electric, Bharti Airtel, and Adani Power in Focus
Indian benchmark indices concluded the recent trading session with a resilient recovery, regaining ground after previous sessions of steep losses. The S&P BSE Sensex settled higher by 316.57 points, or 0.38%, to close at 82,814.71. Simultaneously, the Nifty 50 advanced 116.90 points, or 0.46%, finishing above the psychological 25,550 level at 25,571.25. Market sentiment remains cautious as participants eye the monthly Futures & Options (F&O) expiry scheduled for February 24, 2026. Volatility is anticipated to stay elevated due to shifting global trade dynamics, particularly following a series of U.S. tariff adjustments that have seen rates fluctuate between 10% and 15%. IDFC First Bank has entered the spotlight following the disclosure of a ā¹590 crore fraud at its Chandigarh branch involving Haryana Government accounts. The bank has formally appointed KPMG to conduct an independent forensic audit and has suspended four employees. A management conference call held on February 23 aimed to address stakeholder concerns regarding internal controls. Vedanta continues to see active interest, with its share price rising approximately 0.94% to settle at ā¹682.45. The company recently mobilized $350 million in fresh borrowing and has scheduled a board meeting for February 25. Strong return on equity (ROE) figures of 36.36% are providing a fundamental floor despite a quarterly revenue dip. Bharti Airtel remains a high-value turnover stock, even as it faces short-term technical resistance. The telecom major reported a robust Q3 performance with consolidated revenue rising 19.6% year-on-year to ā¹53,982 crore. While the stock traded near ā¹1,991.9 with marginal daily losses, its long-term bias remains positive supported by a 60.4% EBITDA margin in its India business. Broader economic indicators show a mixed landscape. The HSBC India Composite PMI rose to 59.3 in February, signaling strong factory output. However, GDP growth projections for Q3 FY26 suggest a moderation to 7.2% due to a contraction in government capital spending and a slowdown in the services sector. The India VIX, a measure of market fear, rose by 6.59% to 14.35, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions and crude oil prices. Brent futures currently hover near $66 to $72 per barrel, influenced by ongoing standoffs in West Asia. These factors are expected to dictate the near-term direction of the indices.
Market Outlook: Resistance Near 26,000 and Support at 25,200
Market dynamics for the week of February 23, 2026, indicate a consolidation phase for the Nifty 50. The index recently closed at **25,571.25**, marking a modest weekly gain of **0.44%**. Technical structures suggest the index is navigating a tight corridor. Immediate support is established at **25,400**, with a deeper structural floor near **25,200** aligned with the 200-day exponential moving average. On the upside, **25,650** remains the primary hurdle, followed by a stronger resistance zone between **25,850** and **25,900**. Trading sentiment is influenced by a mix of domestic and global triggers. The India-US interim trade deal has provided a tailwind for export-oriented sectors, particularly electronics and textiles. However, global caution persists due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a rotation out of financial stocks in international markets. **Bajaj Finance** has shown resilience, trading near **1,001** despite a recent dip in quarterly net profit. Analysts maintain a constructive view on the stock due to its compelling entry valuation. **Dixon Technologies** is currently priced around **11,072**. While it faces short-term headwinds from rising component costs, it remains a key beneficiary of the shifting trade dynamics in the electronics manufacturing space. **Bharat Electronics (BEL)** continues to draw interest at **441.15**, supported by a robust order book exceeding **700 crore** in recent contracts. This provides high revenue visibility for the current fiscal year. **Tata Steel** is trading near **208**, with price targets set by some brokerages at **240**. The outlook is supported by domestic demand and the implementation of safeguard duties that protect local pricing. **Colgate-Palmolive** and **Navin Fluorine** remain on the radar for defensive and specialty chemical plays respectively. These stocks are being monitored for stability as the broader market seeks a decisive breakout. Sectoral performance shows **Bank Nifty** outperforming the broader market with a **1.64%** weekly gain, closing near **61,000**. In contrast, the IT sector remains under pressure due to ongoing shifts in software demand and global tech sentiment. The market enters the current expiry week with a neutral to cautiously positive bias. Traders are focused on the **25,400** level as the "line in the sand." A sustained move above **25,900** is required to trigger a fresh rally toward the **26,100** milestone.
Mixed Market Outlook: Short Covering Tempered by Tariff Volatility
Indian markets open today, Monday, February 23, 2026, with a complex mix of relief and renewed geopolitical anxiety. The primary catalyst is a landmark US Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trumpās sweeping reciprocal tariffs. This decision invalidates 18% duties previously facing 55% of Indian exports, including critical engineering goods and auto components. However, the relief was short-lived. Following the ruling, the US administration immediately proposed a new 10% global import surcharge, which was increased to 15% over the weekend. This temporary levy is expected to last 150 days, keeping trade uncertainty high for Indian exporters. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have emerged as a significant headwind. Reports of a US military buildup in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude prices toward $71.48 per barrel. As India imports nearly 80% of its oil, and with 40% of energy supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, these tensions pose a direct threat to domestic inflation and fiscal stability. Domestic indices entered the session following a volatile week where the Nifty 50 held near 25,571 and the Sensex hovered around 82,814. While PSU banks and energy stocks gained over 2.4% last week, the IT sector remains under pressure due to global tech spending concerns. Investors are closely monitoring the Indian rupee, which has found some support from recent foreign inflows but remains sensitive to the strengthening US dollar and rising oil prices. Market sentiment is currently defined by a "narrow range" outlook. While the removal of the 18% tariff provides a competitive boost for manufacturers, the looming 15% universal surcharge and the risk of conflict in the Middle East are expected to cap major gains. Trading today is likely to focus on stock-specific movements. Upstream oil companies like ONGC and Oil India may see interest due to higher crude realizations, while export-heavy sectors wait for clearer legal signals from Washington regarding the new 15% tariff implementation.
Investor Sentiment Toward Local IT Stocks Declines Amid AI Concerns
The Indian IT sector is navigating a period of intense volatility as of late February 2026. While broader indices like the Nifty 50 have shown resilience, the Nifty IT index has faced a significant correction, dropping approximately **16%** over the past month. This downturn has pushed the index nearly **30%** below its all-time highs recorded in late 2024. Market sentiment is currently dominated by bearish positioning. Traders have significantly increased short bets, evidenced by a surge in open interest in IT stock futures. This trend is largely driven by fears that rapid advancements in generative and agentic AI tools could disrupt traditional service delivery models. In the first half of February 2026 alone, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded over **ā¹10,950 crore** from the sector, reallocating capital toward pure-play AI firms listed in the US. Despite the immediate price pressure, a shift in revenue structure is becoming visible. AI-centric engagements now account for nearly **74%** of all new contracts signed over the last six quarters. Major players like TCS and Infosys are reporting significant traction, with TCS reaching an annualized AI services revenue of **$1.8 billion**. HCLTech also recently crossed the **$15 billion** annual revenue milestone, bolstered by AI-led engineering innovations. Valuations have become a focal point for long-term investors. The sector's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio has moderated to **22.1x**, falling slightly below its 10-year historical average of **21.6x**. Analysts suggest this correction may be nearing a cyclical bottom. While revenue growth for large-cap firms is projected at a modest **4.5% to 6%** for the upcoming fiscal year, the transition from labor-intensive "effort" to value-based "outcomes" is expected to support margins in the long run. Domestic IT spending in India remains a bright spot, projected to reach **ā¹15.14 lakh crore** (approximately **$176 billion**) by the end of 2026. This growth is fueled by massive investments in data center expansion and local AI infrastructure. Additionally, the government has allocated **ā¹2,000 crore** in the latest budget to further accelerate national AI adoption. Looking ahead, the market is closely monitoring upcoming contract expiries for signs of short covering. While the immediate outlook remains cautious due to global macroeconomic uncertainty and the evolving AI landscape, the robust deal pipelineāwith median year-on-year growth of **26%**āindicates that demand for digital transformation remains intact. The sector is increasingly viewed as undergoing a structural evolution rather than a terminal decline.
US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: India's Market Positioning and Economic Outlook
In a landmark 6-3 decision on February 20, 2026, the US Supreme Court struck down the administrationās sweeping reciprocal tariffs. The court ruled that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to bypass Congress was an overreach of presidential authority. The ruling effectively nullifies the aggressive 50% duties previously imposed on major trading partners, including India. This legal shift has immediately removed roughly $133 billion in annual duties from the global trade balance, creating a temporary vacuum in US trade policy. The White House responded within 24 hours by invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. This move establishes a new 15% global tariff aimed at addressing the national balance-of-payments deficit. Unlike the previous regime, this emergency measure is legally capped at 15% and is valid for only 150 days without explicit congressional approval. Markets view this as a significant reduction from the prior 50% peak, offering a period of relative relief for global exporters. For India, the impact is notably positive. While the 15% global surcharge applies, recent bilateral negotiations have further cushioned the blow. Following a fresh trade framework, many Indian exports now face an effective rate of approximately 18%, down sharply from the previous 50% level. Emkay Global estimates that when accounting for sector-specific exemptions in pharmaceuticals, gems, and high-tech components, Indiaās aggregate effective tariff burden sits between 11% and 13%. Key Indian export sectors, particularly textiles, leather, and engineering goods, are expected to see an immediate recovery in competitiveness. The removal of the 25% "punitive" surchargeāpreviously tied to geopolitical oil purchasesāis seen as a major diplomatic win for New Delhi. Analysts have observed a sharp rally in Indian export-oriented stocks, with benchmark indices like the Nifty and Sensex showing strong gains as trade predictability returns. Global trade remains in a state of high-speed recalibration. While the 15% surcharge is currently active, the administration is simultaneously launching Section 301 and Section 232 investigations. These alternative legal paths could lead to more durable, sector-specific tariffs on automobiles, steel, and semiconductors by late 2026. For now, the 150-day window under Section 122 provides a critical breather for global supply chains to reorganize. Investors and corporate trade departments are pivoting toward "trade diversion" strategies to mitigate future volatility. The focus is shifting toward reinforcing bilateral agreements and securing product-level exemptions. Although the immediate "tariff shock" has eased, the transition from emergency executive orders to congressional-dependent trade law suggests a more litigious and complex environment for the remainder of the year.
Ten Key Factors Likely to Influence Indian Stock Market Performance on Monday
Market Brief: Equity and Economic Pulse Indian benchmark indices demonstrated resilience during the final trading session of the week, overcoming initial morning slumps to finish in positive territory. The **Nifty 50** climbed **116.90 points** to settle at **25,571.25**, while the **BSE Sensex** rose **316.57 points** to end at **82,814.71**. This recovery followed a significant mid-week correction where the Sensex had plummeted over **1,200 points** in a single day. Market volatility remains a primary concern for traders, as evidenced by the **India VIX** jumping **6.7%** to hover near the **14.36** mark. This spike reflects heightened anxiety regarding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies. Analysts currently expect the Nifty to oscillate within a support-resistance range of **25,300 to 25,800** in the immediate term. Sectoral Performance and Global Triggers Sectoral trends showed a clear rotation toward domestic cyclicals and industrials. **Nifty Metal** and **PSU Bank** indices led the gains, with the metal sector buoyed by news of potential easing in U.S. steel tariffs. **Tata Steel** surged **2.9%**, while **Hindustan Unilever** gained **1.8%** to support the FMCG segment. Conversely, the **IT sector** lagged as investors booked profits, with **Infosys** and **HCL Tech** seeing declines of over **1%**. Global markets provided a mixed but ultimately supportive backdrop. U.S. and European indices closed higher, largely boosted by a landmark **Supreme Court ruling** that struck down certain administrative tariffs, easing fears of immediate trade wars. However, escalating tensions between the **U.S. and Iran** have kept crude oil prices near **$70 per barrel**, maintaining pressure on Indiaās trade deficit and rupee, which is trading around **90.98** per dollar. Macro-Economic Indicators India continues to hold its position as the fastest-growing major economy, with real **GDP growth estimated at 8.2%** for the most recent quarter. Manufacturing and services remain the primary engines, growing at **9.1%** and **9.2%** respectively. Inflation has shown cooling trends, with **CPI easing toward 1.7%** in early 2026, though food prices remain a variable that the RBI is monitoring closely. Investment-led growth is a central theme following the **Union Budget 2026**, which earmarked **ā¹10 lakh crore** for infrastructure and green energy. While the initial market reaction to new derivative taxes was negative, the focus has shifted to long-term capital expenditure and the landmark **India-U.S. trade agreement**, which is expected to boost textile and electronic exports. Liquidity and Investor Sentiment The market structure has seen a notable shift in participation. While **Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)** have remained cautious due to a strong dollar, **Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)** continue to provide a floor to the market through consistent SIP inflows. The total market capitalization of BSE-listed firms now stands at approximately **ā¹467 lakh crore**, reflecting a surge of **ā¹2 lakh crore** in investor wealth during the last session alone. Upcoming triggers for the week ahead include **RBI policy commentary**, **Nvidiaās earnings** globally, and high-frequency data such as vehicle sales and GST collections. Analysts suggest a "buy-on-dips" strategy as the broader structural narrative remains intact despite short-term global headwinds.
Monday Stock Outlook: Two Trading Ideas with Target Returns Up to 16%
Market Brief: Nifty Technical Outlook The Nifty 50 is currently navigating a pivotal consolidation phase. After experiencing significant volatility earlier in February, the index has established a reliable base around its previous swing lows. As of February 22, 2026, the index remains in a rebuilding phase, attempting to reclaim momentum. Key Price Levels and Technicals The Nifty closed its most recent active session at **25,571.25**, marking a gain of **0.46%**. This recovery followed a brief dip where the index tested intraday lows near **25,379.75**. On the technical front, the **21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA)** is acting as a formidable immediate resistance. This level is currently hovering near the **25,671** mark. A decisive close above this EMA is essential for the bulls to shift the short-term bias from "sell-on-rise" to a more sustainable uptrend. Immediate support is firmly placed in the **25,400 ā 25,300** zone. Market participants are watching this range closely; a breakdown here could expose the index to the **200-day EMA** near **25,100**, which serves as a critical long-term structural floor. Volatility and Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment is characterized by "volatility compression." The **India VIX** recently cooled by over **1.70%** to settle around **13.10**, suggesting that the aggressive swings seen post-budget are beginning to subside. The **Put-Call Ratio (PCR)** stands at **1.22**, indicating a slightly overbought but generally stable derivative structure. Traders are observing maximum Call Open Interest at the **26,000** strike, which is expected to be the next major psychological hurdle if the **21-EMA** is breached. Economic Catalysts and Sector Trends Macroeconomic data remains supportive of the underlying domestic strength. The **HSBC India Composite PMI** rose to **59.3** in February, the highest level since November, driven by robust factory output and new orders. Sectoral performance shows a clear rotation: * **Metals & PSU Banks:** Leading the recovery with gains exceeding **1.3%**. * **FMCG:** Showing resilience with heavyweights like **Hindustan Unilever** rising **1.83%**. * **IT Sector:** Currently the primary laggard, facing persistent selling pressure and dragging on the broader index. External factors, including the potential easing of U.S. steel tariffs and the influx of foreign investments, are providing a tailwind to the metal and financial sectors, helping the Nifty maintain its ground above key support levels.
Nvidia and Software Earnings to Test AI-Driven Market Stability
Market sentiment remains fragile as investors shift their focus to the upcoming financial results of artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia Corp, scheduled for February 25. The semiconductor leader is widely seen as the primary anchor for a U.S. stock market recently unsettled by AI-related growth concerns and political volatility. Nvidia is expected to report earnings-per-share of $1.51 on revenue of $65 billion. This follows a record-breaking performance in late 2025, where the company saw revenue surge 62% year-on-year to $57 billion. Despite these massive figures, the stock has traded sideways in early 2026, currently hovering near $189. Analysts remain bullish, with average 12-month price targets sitting at $255, implying an upside of nearly 39%. The broader market is currently digesting a major legal reversal from the U.S. Supreme Court. On February 20, the Court overturned President Donald Trumpās sweeping trade tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The 6-3 ruling declared that the President lacks the statutory authority to unilaterally impose such taxes, a power reserved for Congress. The judicial decision provided an immediate boost to global trade sentiment, yet market reaction remains mixed. While the ruling removes a major tool for executive trade action, the administration quickly responded by signing a new 10% global duty under different legislative authorities, set to take effect on February 24. Current economic indicators add further pressure to the trading environment. January's Consumer Price Index rose 0.2%, while core PCE inflation reached 3% annually, slightly above the Federal Reserveās targets. Furthermore, fourth-quarter GDP growth for 2025 slowed to 1.4%ānearly half of the expected rateālargely due to the impact of the recent government shutdown. Volatility in the tech sector has been fueled by new AI tool releases from competitors like Anthropic, which have sparked fears of disruption in knowledge-based industries like finance and software. The Nasdaq Composite recently saw a weekly decline of 0.2% as investors reassessed the sustainability of massive AI capital expenditures, which are projected to reach $200 billion for Amazon and up to $185 billion for Alphabet this year. Investors are looking to Nvidiaās guidance on its new Blackwell chip demand to determine if the AI narrative can regain its momentum. A strong double beat on earnings and revenue is considered essential to restore confidence in high-growth tech valuations and steady the broader indices.
Radhavi Deshpande: REITs and InvITs to Increasingly Drive Portfolio Returns
Market dynamics for 2026 reflect a strategic transition toward yield-bearing assets and earnings-driven equity growth. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) have emerged as cornerstone instruments, significantly outperforming broader indices in 2025 with total returns of 25.48%. These hybrid vehicles are increasingly favored for their ability to provide stable cash flows and an inherent inflation hedge. Regulatory reforms effective January 1, 2026, which reclassified REITs as equity-related instruments, are expected to catalyze deeper institutional participation and improve market liquidity throughout the year. The fixed income landscape remains anchored by a calibrated pause from the Reserve Bank of India. Following a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points in 2025, the repo rate has stabilized at 5.25% as of February 2026. Investors are currently navigating a neutral policy stance where the 10-year G-sec yield is hovering near 6.67%. The focus has shifted toward asset-liability matching and locking in yields before the next potential phase of the rate cycle. Corporate bond markets are also gaining depth through new frameworks for market-making and bond-index derivatives introduced in the latest budget. Equity markets for FY27 are characterized by a "quality over momentum" approach. Earnings growth is projected to be the primary engine of returns, with aggregate profits for top companies forecast to accelerate to 27.4% in FY27. Large-cap financials remain a dominant pillar, contributing nearly 40% of index earnings while benefiting from credit growth and healthy balance sheets. Industrials and the consumption sector are also poised for a rebound. Industrials are supported by a massive infrastructure capex pipeline of ā¹15ā25 trillion, while consumption is seeing a revival led by rural demand growth of 8.4%, outpacing urban centers. Strategic allocation now prioritizes capital efficiency and risk-adjusted returns. Market participants are moving away from liquidity-driven rallies toward selective opportunities in companies with high cash flow visibility and resilient operating margins. This fundamental-driven environment rewards execution and earnings delivery over speculative trends. [Understanding Indian REITs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS0_Lh3fHvI) This video provides an overview of how REITs and InvITs have performed compared to traditional indices and why they are becoming a preferred choice for stable income in India. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
US Market | Seth Klarmanās Strategies for Navigating Market Volatility
Market dynamics are undergoing a structural shift as the era of easy liquidity gives way to trade volatility and geopolitical realignment. For the thoughtful investor, the core tenets of value investingācapital preservation and a strict margin of safetyāhave moved from the background to the center of portfolio strategy. **The Seth Klarman Blueprint** In an environment characterized by erratic policy shifts, Seth Klarmanās approach at Baupost Group offers a stabilizing framework. Klarman continues to emphasize that risk is not just a number, but the potential for permanent capital loss. Recent filings show a disciplined rotation into resilient sectors. His top holdings now include **Restaurant Brands International (10.4%)**, **Amazon (9.3%)**, and **Willis Towers Watson (8.5%)**. Notably, Klarman has significantly reduced exposure to high-flying tech, cutting his Alphabet stake by over **41%**. This move underscores a pivot toward businesses with tangible assets and reliable cash flows, typically holding cash reserves as high as **30% to 50%** to wait for "the perfect pitch." **The US-India Trade Reset** A major breakthrough in bilateral relations has significantly altered the trade landscape. US tariffs on Indian goods, which had spiked to punitive levels of **50%** in late 2025 due to disputes over oil sourcing and reciprocal duties, have been slashed to an effective rate of **18%** as of February 2026. This de-escalation follows a high-level agreement where India committed to purchasing **$500 billion** in US goods over five years, focusing on energy, technology, and agriculture. This policy pivot has immediately boosted export-heavy sectors that were previously bracing for a **70%** collapse in US-bound volumes. **Sectoral Impact and Market Reactions** The reduction in tariffs has triggered a relief rally across the Indian markets. The **Nifty Pharma Index** jumped over **4.5%**, led by gains in Aurobindo Pharma (**+5.7%**) and Diviās Labs (**+4.2%**). While pharma was largely exempt from the harshest duties, the new 18% framework provides the long-term pricing clarity needed for generic drug manufacturers to maintain their **11%** share of the total US trade basket. The **Nifty IT Index** also surged by **5.5%**, reflecting optimism that stabilized trade relations will support discretionary spending from US clients, who provide over **60%** of the sector's revenue. In contrast, labor-intensive sectors like textiles, gems, and jewelry are in a recovery phase. These industries, which faced the highest exposure under the previous **50%** regime, are now regaining competitiveness against Asian peers like Vietnam and Bangladesh. **Strategic Takeaway** The current market demands a blend of opportunistic growth and defensive caution. While the tariff reduction to **18%** removes a massive overhang on Indian equities, the broader lesson remains one of discipline. By prioritizing a margin of safety and maintaining liquidity, investors can navigate the "unpredictable art" of valuation in a world where trade policy can shift overnight.
Weekly Trading Strategy for Newgen Software and Netweb Technologies: Analyst Outlook
Market performance across the Indian equity landscape has shown distinct divergence as of late February 2026. While the primary indices grapple with range-bound volatility, high-growth mid-cap and tech stocks continue to demonstrate localized strength. Newgen Software and Netweb Technologies emerged as notable outperformers in the Nifty 500 universe. Netweb Technologies recently surged over 17% across three trading sessions, reaching a high near 3,751.00 on February 20. This momentum is attributed to surging delivery volumes and the launch of new AI infrastructure solutions. Newgen Software also witnessed a sharp weekly rally of 16%, though it faced profit-booking on the final trading day of the week, closing at 556.90. The Nifty 50 is currently navigating a period of consolidation. After slipping from highs earlier in the month, the index closed near 25,571. Immediate structural support is established at the 25,400ā25,380 zone. A breach below this floor could expose the 25,250 level, while resistance is firmly placed at 25,700 and 25,850. BankNifty displays relative technical resilience, maintaining a position above the 60,500 demand zone. The index settled the most recent session at 61,172.00, marking a 0.71% recovery. Key resistance for the banking sector remains in the 61,400ā61,700 cluster, which aligns with recent all-time high supply zones. Market volatility, measured by the India VIX, has signaled elevated nervousness. The index spiked 6.69% to settle at 14.36, indicating that traders are pricing in higher premiums for risk protection in the near term. This shift suggests a cautious approach is prevailing despite the underlying bullish structure of the broader markets. Individual stock setups remain a core focus for market participants. KEI Industries showed strong movement, with its stock futures surging over 4% to trade near 4,782.60. Triveni Turbine continues to hold a constructive technical posture, trading at 490.20 with an RSI near 45, following a year of healthy order bookings. Global factors, including divided opinions within the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rate paths and fluctuating crude prices near $71.90, have contributed to inconsistent FII flows. Conversely, domestic institutional support remains a critical cushion for local benchmarks.
Aswath Damodaran Expresses Investment Preference for Anthropic Over OpenAI
Market Brief: AI Titans and the Great Software Reset The competitive landscape between OpenAI and Anthropic has reached a historic fever pitch in early 2026. Private market valuations for the two leaders now exceed a combined **$1.2 trillion**, reflecting a decoupling of AI ventures from broader SaaS market trends. The Valuation Divergence OpenAI is currently pursuing a massive **$100 billion** funding round, targeting a staggering valuation between **$750 billion** and **$830 billion**. This follows a cumulative capital burn projected to reach **$44 billion** by 2029. Secondary market data as of late February 2026 lists OpenAIās implied share price at approximately **$723.12**. Anthropic recently closed its own **$30 billion** Series G round, catapulting its valuation to **$380 billion**. Despite the gap in scale, Anthropic is demonstrating superior monetization efficiency. The company hit a **$14 billion** revenue run rate in February 2026, scaling from just **$1 billion** only 14 months ago. The "SaaSpocalypse" and Global Sell-offs A structural shift occurred in late January 2026 with the release of the Claude Cowork platform and 11 specialized enterprise plugins. These tools, designed to autonomously handle legal, financial, and coding tasks, triggered a sharp global market correction. * **$285 billion** in market value was erased from software and services stocks in a single session. * Indiaās Nifty IT index plunged **6%** on February 4, 2026, its steepest drop since 2020. * Giants like Infosys and TCS saw single-day declines of **7.4%** and **7%** respectively. * Legal tech leaders like Thomson Reuters and RELX fell as much as **15%**. Strategic Sentiment and Leadership Valuation authority Aswath Damodaran has expressed a tactical preference for Anthropic over OpenAI for potential public inclusion. His thesis centers on leadership dynamics rather than raw technical metrics. Damodaran suggests that Anthropicās management demonstrates a higher capacity for adaptive learning compared to the "ego-driven" leadership at OpenAI. While both firms carry heavy premiums, investors are increasingly weighing corporate governance and "outcome-based" models against the traditional "headcount-based" models of legacy software providers. Productivity and Job Market Impact The rapid transition to agentic AIāsystems that execute work rather than just assistingāhas moved from theory to market reality. Anthropic's CEO recently noted that advanced AI could fundamentally disrupt white-collar professional services within the next few years. This sentiment is driving a "valuation reset" across the global IT sector. Investors are no longer valuing software firms on stable outsourcing contracts, but on their ability to integrate or survive the shift to autonomous AI agents.
Market Outlook: Potential Volatility and Reactions to Shift in U.S. Tariff Policy
Indian markets enter the final week of February 2026 facing a major shift in the global trade landscape. Following a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling on February 20 that struck down high reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. administration has swiftly moved to a new 10% global baseline tariff. Domestic indices ended the previous session on a positive note, but investors are now recalibrating for Monday's opening. The Nifty 50 closed near 25,571 while the Sensex settled at 82,814. Despite the underlying strength in financials and PSU banks, the export-oriented IT and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to see heightened volatility as the legal and fiscal implications of the new U.S. trade regime become clearer. The effective average tariff on Indian exports is now estimated at approximately 13.4%. While this is a significant reduction from the earlier proposed 18% to 25% range, the new 10% surcharge remains a hurdle for high-volume sectors. The textiles and apparel industries remain particularly wary. The U.S. is the largest destination for Indian garment exports, and although the recent court ruling provides some legal relief, the 10% surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is set to begin on February 24. This temporary measure is slated for 150 days, creating a short-term window of uncertainty for order pricing and profit margins. The pharmaceutical and electronics sectors may find themselves more competitive under the reduced 10% rate compared to previous reciprocal threats. However, specific duties on steel and aluminum remain high at roughly 50% under national security provisions, which were not affected by the recent court decision. Currency markets are also under pressure, with the Rupee trading near the 90.98 level against the Dollar. A weaker currency may provide a cushion for exporters, but it also adds to the cost of imported raw materials and energy. Brent crude prices have recently spiked toward $72, further complicating the inflation outlook. The Indian government is currently studying the legal details of the U.S. court verdict. Discussions regarding the Interim Trade Dealāoriginally based on an 18% reciprocal rateāmay now require a full realignment. Market participants are watching for official statements from the Commerce Ministry to gauge if India will modify its own commitments on U.S. agricultural and industrial goods in response to these changes. Short-term market sentiment will likely be driven by sector-specific reactions. While the broader indices show resilience, the "wait-and-watch" mode prevailing in New Delhi and Washington suggests that a period of consolidation is probable before a new trend emerges.