Bullish News
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**Hassett Critiques New York Fed Tariff Research Amid Policy Debate**
Market Brief: US Import Tariffs and Domestic Cost Dynamics The domestic economic landscape is shifting as recent data confirms that the burden of massive import tax increases is falling almost entirely on American shoulders. While the administration has historically argued that foreign exporters would absorb these costs, a landmark report from the New York Fed released in February 2026 reveals a different reality. Key data points show that U.S. firms and consumers bore 94% of the tariff burden during the first eight months of 2025. By November, this figure adjusted slightly to 86%, yet the overarching trend remains clear: the domestic economy is footing the bill for trade policy shifts. The average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports surged from a mere 2.6% at the start of 2025 to 13.5% by early 2026. This is the highest level of import taxation recorded since 1946. The Treasury Department reported collecting $287 billion in customs duties and fees in 2025 alone, a staggering 192% increase compared to the previous year. At the household level, the impact is becoming tangible. Analysts estimate that the current tariff structure resulted in a $1,000 cost increase per U.S. household in 2025, with that figure projected to rise to $1,300 in 2026. These costs are primarily driven by "pass-through" pricing, where importers raise retail prices to maintain margins. Sector performance shows significant price divergence. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for core goods rose 1.5% through late 2025, while durable goodsāthose most exposed to international supply chainsāsaw even sharper climbs. Imported durable goods prices are currently 3.1% above their pre-2025 trends. Global trade flows are also reconfiguring. Chinaās share of U.S. imports dropped below 10% for the first time in decades as businesses moved sourcing to Mexico and Vietnam to mitigate tax exposure. However, even with these shifts, the cost of domestic-affected goods has risen, as local producers often raise prices in tandem with their newly expensive foreign competitors. While the administration points to robust GDP growth of 4.3% in late 2025 as evidence of a successful "Buy American" strategy, the New York Fed research suggests these gains may be tempered by long-term productivity losses. The central bank's findings have been echoed by other international bodies, including the Kiel Institute, which found that foreign exporters absorbed only 4% of the total tax burden. Looking ahead, market volatility remains tied to the legal and political status of these measures. With roughly $168 billion in potential refunds pending a Supreme Court decision on emergency tariff powers, businesses are navigating a high-stakes environment where the cost of entry for foreign goods has become a permanent fixture of the domestic price index.
Bank of India and Select PSU Bank Stocks Project Up to 8% Upside Potential
The Nifty 50 extended its winning streak to a third consecutive session on February 18, 2026, closing at **25,819.35**. This represents a gain of **93.95 points** or **0.37%**. The index successfully reclaimed key support levels, demonstrating resilience despite early-session volatility. Broad-based buying across the Metal, FMCG, and PSU Bank sectors fueled the rally. Market participants witnessed a significant wealth addition of nearly **ā¹2 lakh crore** as the total market capitalization of BSE-listed firms rose to approximately **ā¹472 lakh crore**. Nifty 50 Technical Outlook The index is currently testing immediate resistance in the **25,900 ā 25,950** zone. Technical analysts suggest that a sustained move above this range could pave the way for a psychological target of **26,000**, with further upside potential reaching toward **26,300** in the short term. On the downside, the **25,700 ā 25,650** zone is acting as immediate support. The broader structure remains constructive as long as the index holds above the **25,500** demand base. Banking Sector Breakouts Public Sector Banks (PSBs) emerged as top performers, with the Nifty PSU Bank index rising **1.31%**. Key breakouts in mid-tier state-run lenders have signaled fresh bullish momentum. **Bank of Maharashtra (MAHABANK)** The stock hit a new **52-week high** of **ā¹69.21** during intraday trade, eventually settling at **ā¹69.00**. This reflects a daily gain of **2.52%**. The bank has seen a cumulative appreciation of **4.28%** over the last three days, supported by high trading volumes of over **31 million shares**. **Bank of India (BANKINDIA)** Shares surged to a **52-week high** of **ā¹173.29** before closing at **ā¹172.40**, up **1.29%**. The stock has maintained strong upward momentum, gaining over **6%** within the last week. Momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD remain in bullish territory, suggesting continued strength. Market Drivers and Sentiment Sectoral performance was led by **Nifty Metal (up 1.33%)** and **Nifty FMCG (up 1.21%)**. Top individual gainers included Kwality Walls, which jumped **4.94%**, and HDFC Life, which rose **3.37%**. In contrast, the **Nifty IT index (down 1.23%)** was the sole laggard among major sectors. Selling pressure in heavyweights like Wipro and Tech Mahindra capped the overall gains of the benchmark index. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the previous session with an inflow of **ā¹995.21 crore**, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also remained positive, contributing **ā¹187.04 crore** to the market liquidity. Global cues remained largely supportive. While major Chinese and Hong Kong markets were closed for the Lunar New Year, the Japanese Nikkei gained over **700 points**, providing a positive backdrop for the late-session surge in Indian equities.
US Stocks Edge Up Amid Tech Rebound and Anticipation of Fed Minutes
Market Brief: February 18, 2026 Indian equity benchmarks extended their winning streak to a third consecutive session as domestic markets staged a late-hour recovery. Despite a cautious opening and persistent global uncertainties, a surge in buying during the final hour pushed the indices higher. The **BSE Sensex** climbed **283.29 points**, or **0.34%**, to settle at **83,734.25**. The **NSE Nifty 50** gained **93.95 points**, or **0.37%**, closing at **25,819.35**. Investor wealth saw a significant boost, with the total market capitalization of BSE-listed firms rising by approximately **ā¹2 lakh crore** to reach nearly **ā¹472 lakh crore**. Sector Performance and Key Drivers While the broader market momentum turned positive, sectoral performance remained polarized. The **Nifty IT** index faced headwinds, sliding **1.23%** as major players like **Infosys** and **Tech Mahindra** underperformed due to concerns over margin pressures. In contrast, the **Metal** and **PSU Bank** sectors led the gains, rising **1.33%** and **1.31%** respectively. Consumer-facing stocks also saw traction, with **ITC** jumping over **2.1%** following prospects of price hikes in the cigarette segment. * **Top Gainers:** Tata Steel (**+2.93%**), HDFC Life (**+3.37%**), and ITC (**+2.15%**). * **Top Laggards:** Wipro (**-1.73%**), Infosys (**-1.26%**), and Tech Mahindra (**-1.25%**). Global Technology and AI Influence Sentiment in the tech space was heavily influenced by **Nvidiaās** multi-year partnership expansion with **Meta**. Nvidia shares rose over **2%** after confirming a deal to supply millions of AI chips for Metaās infrastructure buildout, which includes the deployment of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs. While this boosted megacap sentiment in the US, it put pressure on rival chipmakers. Meta's capital expenditure forecast for 2026 remains aggressive, projected between **$115 billion and $135 billion**. Macroeconomic Outlook and Interest Rates Investors remain laser-focused on the **US Federal Reserve**, which recently held interest rates steady in the **3.50% to 3.75%** range. Market participants are analyzing minutes and economic data for signs of a potential **25 basis point cut** later this year. On the domestic front, India's retail inflation for January 2026 was reported at **2.75%** under a newly revised series with a **2024 base year**. While food inflation stood at **2.13%**, the overall cooling trend has reinforced expectations that the **Reserve Bank of India** may maintain a stable policy environment in the medium term. Foreign and Domestic Flows Institutional activity provided a supportive floor for the indices. Foreign Institutional Investors (**FIIs**) were net buyers, purchasing equities worth **ā¹995.21 crore**, while Domestic Institutional Investors (**DIIs**) added **ā¹187.04 crore** to their holdings. Crude oil remains a factor for the trade balance, with **Brent crude** trading at approximately **$67.64 per barrel**, reflecting a slight daily increase of **0.33%**.
RBI Mandates Unique Transaction Identifiers for All OTC Derivative Trades Effective January 1, 2027
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced a significant shift in the oversight of over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Effective January 1, 2027, the Unique Transaction Identifier (UTI) will be mandatory for all direct private trades involving rupee interest rate and foreign currency derivatives. The UTI is a global 52-character code designed to identify specific transactions, complementing the existing Legal Entity Identifier (LEI) which identifies the parties involved. This move aligns India with global standards set by the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO). **Regulatory Timeline and Context** The implementation date of January 1, 2027, represents an extension from an earlier proposed timeline of April 2026. This adjustment provides market participants additional time to upgrade technical systems and reporting frameworks. The mandate covers a broad spectrum of instruments, including: - Rupee interest rate swaps (IRS) - Forward contracts in government securities - Foreign currency derivatives - Credit derivatives **Current Market Landscape** As of early 2026, the Indian rupee has faced persistent volatility, recently trading near 90.56 against the US dollar. This depreciation, up from 83 levels in 2024, has driven record demand for hedging instruments among exporters and corporates. Interest rate dynamics also remain a core focus. The RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25% in its February 2026 meeting, following a 25-basis-point cut in December 2025. With inflation projected at 2.1% for the 2025-26 fiscal year and GDP growth forecasted at 7.4%, the demand for sophisticated risk management tools is at an all-time high. **Market Growth and Data Trends** The OTC interest rate derivative market has seen a massive surge in activity. Global data indicates that daily average turnover for these instruments reached 7.9 trillion dollars in 2025, a 59% increase from 2022. In India, the Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL) continues to serve as the primary trade repository. The new UTI mandate will require all trades entered into after the 2027 start date to be reported with the unique identifier, allowing regulators to aggregate global exposures and identify systemic risks more effectively. **Strategic Implications** For market participants, the transition requires a "waterfall mechanism" to determine which entity generates the UTI for a specific trade. Banks and financial institutions must now focus on: - Integrating UTI generation into automated trade feeds. - Ensuring data integrity across the 52-character alphanumeric strings. - Harmonizing reporting with international counterparts to avoid duplicate or inconsistent data. While the administrative burden on sales desks and compliance teams will increase, the long-term benefit is a more transparent and stable derivatives ecosystem. This transparency is critical as India's outward foreign direct investment nearly doubled to 6.8 billion dollars in late 2025, reflecting deeper integration with global financial markets.
Liberty Global Acquires Vodafoneās 50% Stake in VodafoneZiggo for $1.18 Billion
Vodafone has officially confirmed the sale of its 50% stake in the Dutch joint venture VodafoneZiggo to its partner Liberty Global. The transaction is valued at 1 billion euros ($1.08 billion) in cash, alongside a 10% equity interest in a newly formed entity named Ziggo Group. This strategic move marks the end of a decade-long partnership and the creation of a regional powerhouse. Ziggo Group will consolidate Liberty Globalās major Benelux assets, including the 100% interest in VodafoneZiggo and the Belgian telecom operator Telenet. The deal highlights significant financial shifts for both companies. Vodafone shares climbed 4.3% following the announcement, as investors welcomed the cash influx. Liberty Globalās stock also saw a sharp 8.6% rise in New York, reflecting market confidence in the consolidation strategy. The transaction is valued at approximately 7.1 times the estimated 2025 adjusted EBITDA. Liberty Global plans to list Ziggo Group on Euronext Amsterdam in 2027, with intentions to spin off 90% of the shares to its current shareholders. Operationally, Vodafone will continue to support the Dutch business. The two firms have established a long-term service agreement where Vodafone will provide brand licensing and technical services for a total consideration of 625 million euros over the next 10 years. The Dutch telecom market remains highly competitive, valued at approximately 9.1 billion euros in 2025. VodafoneZiggo currently maintains a strong footprint, reporting quarterly revenue of 1.02 billion euros and adjusted EBITDA of 425 million euros. The new Ziggo Group aims to generate approximately 500 million euros in adjusted free cash flow by 2028. The company is also targeting a combined net present value of 1 billion euros in synergies through this regional integration. Regulatory approvals are required before the deal can finalize. Completion is expected in the second half of 2026. Until then, both VodafoneZiggo and Telenet will continue to operate under their existing brands and management teams. This divestment allows Vodafone to streamline its European portfolio while maintaining a 10% upside in the enlarged Benelux entity. For Liberty Global, the move simplifies its corporate structure and prepares its regional assets for a major public listing.
SEBI Establishes Working Group to Review Regulatory Framework for ESG Rating Providers
SEBI Market Update: ESG Rating Framework Review The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has officially constituted a dedicated working group to conduct a comprehensive review of the regulatory framework for **ESG Rating Providers (ERPs)**. This move, announced on **February 18, 2026**, follows extensive feedback from market participants and aims to align Indiaās sustainability standards with evolving global practices. The sustainable finance market in India has seen exponential growth, reaching a valuation of approximately **$653.76 billion** in 2025. Projections indicate this sector could expand to **$2.42 trillion** by 2034, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of **14.44%**. This rapid scaling necessitates a more robust oversight mechanism for the agencies responsible for scoring corporate environmental, social, and governance performance. Structural Composition and Mandate The newly formed working group includes a diverse range of stakeholders: * Domestic and global ESG Rating Providers * Institutional investors and ESG analysts * Legal experts, academics, and corporate issuers The groupās primary mandate is to enhance transparency and reliability in ratings. It will examine current methodologies to mitigate "greenwashing" and address significant discrepancies in scores. Recent market data shows instances where a single company received a local ESG rating of **65** while maintaining global scores as high as **78**, highlighting the urgent need for standardized benchmarks. Strategic Alignment with Global Trends SEBIās initiative coincides with major international shifts. In the European Union, new ESG Rating Regulations are set for application by **July 2026**, pushing for tighter supervision of providers. SEBI intends to evaluate these international developments to ensure the Indian framework remains competitive for foreign capital while respecting the unique context of the domestic market. Current mandates in India already require the top **1,000** listed entities to undertake reasonable assurance of their Business Responsibility and Sustainability Reporting (BRSR) Core. The working group will explore how ERPs can better utilize this assured data to provide more "Core ESG Ratings," which are seen as more reliable by the investor community. Market Impact and Outlook The global ESG investing market is projected to reach **$45.61 trillion** in 2026. As institutional investors now account for nearly **47.28%** of this segment, the demand for precise data is at an all-time high. In India, ESG integration remains the largest revenue-generating segment within sustainable finance, while Green Bonds are emerging as the fastest-growing instrument. The working group is expected to submit a report detailing recommended policy changes and regulatory tweaks. These recommendations will likely focus on internal governance at rating agencies, disclosure of scoring methodologies, and the management of potential conflicts of interest. This regulatory evolution is viewed as a critical step in maintaining investor confidence as Indiaās ESG-linked assets continue their double-digit growth trajectory through 2030.
Large-Cap Stocks With Decreased Domestic Institutional Investor Ownership in Q3
Market Brief: Institutional Shifts in NSE Large-Caps Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) significantly adjusted their positions in December 2025, reducing stakes in nine high-profile NSE large-cap stocks. This move, characterized by profit-booking and tactical rebalancing, affected key industry leaders including Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), Tata Motors, and the State Bank of India (SBI). Energy and Automotive Adjustments Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) witnessed a notable reduction in DII holdings, which dropped to **19.56%** by the end of December 2025 from **21.30%** in the previous quarter. Despite this institutional trimming, BPCL remains a favored value pick, trading near **ā¹380.60** as of February 18, 2026. The stock has maintained a strong one-year return of approximately **48%**, supported by a robust net profit of **ā¹7,188 crore** reported in the latest quarter. Tata Motors also saw a shift in its investor base. DII exposure in the automotive giant softened as the market navigated a transition in its passenger vehicle segment. By mid-February 2026, Tata Motors' share price consolidated around the **ā¹493** mark. While institutional activity showed signs of cooling, the stock remains a central focus for analysts, holding a **52-week high of ā¹500**. Banking Sector Sentiment The State Bank of India (SBI) was another major target for institutional trimming during the December 2025 period. Domestic funds appeared to lock in gains following a period of sustained outperformance in the public sector banking space. Currently, SBI is trading at approximately **ā¹1,220**, reflecting a stable recovery trend despite the earlier reduction in domestic stakes. Broader Market Context The overall market sentiment in early 2026 has been defined by a "tug of war" between institutional players. While DIIs lightened their large-cap loads in late 2025, they have returned as net buyers in February 2026, injecting **ā¹1,667 crore** in single sessions to absorb Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling. This tactical rebalancing suggests that while DIIs reduced exposure to specific large-cap names in December, their broader commitment to Indian equities remains intact, supported by consistent SIP inflows. The Nifty 50 has recently tested the **25,600** level, with volatility remaining moderate as investors eye sector rotation into mid-caps and specialty chemicals.
Apple Shares Diverge From Nasdaq Amid Shift in AI Market Sentiment
Apple Inc. is currently demonstrating a significant departure from broader technology sector movements, as the stockās correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index has plunged to a 20-year low. This decoupling highlights Appleās unique position as a defensive play within a market increasingly defined by volatile artificial intelligence spending. As of February 18, 2026, Apple shares are trading near $265.21, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately $3.9 trillion. While the stock has faced recent pressure, dropping nearly 6% year-to-date and 8% in the past week due to regulatory scrutiny and rumors of AI feature delays, it remains a pillar of relative stability compared to peers heavily exposed to the AI "arms race." Recent fiscal Q1 2026 earnings results underscore this resilience. The company reported record-breaking quarterly revenue of $143.8 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year. This growth was fueled primarily by robust iPhone sales, which generated $85.3 billion in revenueāa 23% jump from the previous year. Services also reached new heights, contributing $30.01 billion to the top line. Appleās primary advantage lies in its restrained capital expenditure. Unlike competitors spending tens of billions on data centers and specialized chips, Apple is leveraging partnerships, such as a collaboration with Alphabet to power its upcoming Siri 2.0 with Gemini models. This strategy preserves a massive cash pile of over $130 billion, offering a safety net during market uncertainty. Growth in emerging markets continues to provide a strong offset to maturity in Western regions. India has emerged as a critical driver, setting all-time revenue records for iPhones and Macs. Analysts estimate that 15.1 million iPhones were shipped to India in 2025 alone, a trend expected to accelerate as Apple expands its retail presence in the country. The outlook for the remainder of 2026 remains focused on a hardware supercycle. Investors are anticipating the fall launch of the iPhone 18 and a refreshed lineup of M5-powered MacBooks. Revenue for the current quarter is projected to rise between 13% and 16%, well above previous consensus estimates. Despite a valuation of roughly 30 times forward earningsāhigher than many tech peersāAppleās 40-day correlation to the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to 0.21. This confirms its status as an "AI-insulated" asset, attracting investors who seek shelter from the high-stakes spending cycles of the software and semiconductor industries.
Larsen & Toubro and Five Other Stocks Reach 52-Week Highs Following Monthly Gains of Up to 16%
Market Brief: Large-Cap Momentum Benchmark indices maintained their upward trajectory on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, as the Sensex advanced 283 points to settle at 83,734. The Nifty 50 also climbed 0.35%, closing at 25,819. This steady performance marks the third consecutive session of gains for the Indian markets. Amid this broader upswing, six heavyweights within the BSE 100 index surged to hit fresh 52-week highs. Strong institutional interest and a shift toward defensive and industrial sectors have fueled this large-cap rally. Industrial Leaders Hit Record Highs Larsen & Toubro emerged as a primary driver, hitting an all-time high of 4,335 during intraday trade. The construction major has delivered a 12% gain over the last month and currently boasts a market capitalization of 5,88,693 crore. Technical indicators show the stock trading comfortably above all its major moving averages. Cummins India recorded a sharp move to a new peak of 4,786.4. The stock has outperformed its sector with a 16% jump in just 30 days. Rising delivery volumesāup 27% recentlyāsuggest sustained buying rather than short-term speculation. Broad-Based Participation Several other key players across diverse sectors reached significant milestones during the session. Indus Towers climbed to a fresh 52-week high of 480.7, supported by a 10% gain over the past month. JSW Steel followed suit, touching 1,264.55 as metal stocks saw renewed demand following global trade signals. In the consumer and auto segments, Bajaj Auto breached the 10,000 mark for the first time, hitting a high of 10,005.9. FMCG major Marico also joined the list of top performers, reaching a peak of 798.6. Sectoral Trends and Indicators The rally was notably led by metals, PSU banks, and FMCG stocks. The Nifty PSU Bank index touched a record high of 9,647 during the day. This strength helped offset continued weakness in the IT sector, which has faced selling pressure due to shifting global technology trends. Market breadth remained positive, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 both rising over 0.40%. Domestic institutional investors continue to provide a cushion to the market, with net purchases of 1,667 crore in recent sessions, balancing out intermittent foreign fund outflows. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers of approximately 972 crore, but the aggressive domestic buying in large-cap heavyweights has kept the benchmark indices resilient near their psychological peaks.
Indian Sovereign Bonds Gain Following Robust Demand at State Debt Auction
Indian government bonds extended their positive momentum this week, supported by robust demand for state debt and favorable liquidity conditions. Market sentiment was bolstered by a successful State Development Loan (SDL) auction where states raised 394.50 billion rupees ($4.35 billion). The auction saw cut-off yields fall below market expectations for the second consecutive week, reflecting strong appetite for sovereign and quasi-sovereign papers. This demand has helped stabilize the yield curve following a period of volatility in early 2026. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield is currently hovering around 6.67% to 6.68%. While yields briefly rose during Wednesdayās session, they remain near three-week lows. The 6.48% 2035 bond recently settled at a yield of 6.66%, marking a decline of approximately 11 basis points over the last six trading sessions. Liquidity remains a primary driver for the bond market's performance. The banking system is currently operating with a significant liquidity surplus, averaging 2.70 trillion rupees daily throughout February. This surplus, comfortably exceeding 1% of total bank deposits, has pushed overnight lending rates lower and encouraged banks to deploy funds into government securities. External factors are also providing a supportive tailwind. U.S. Treasury yields have trended downward, with the 10-year U.S. yield cooling to 4.03% following slower-than-expected retail inflation data. This narrowing of global yields has increased the relative attractiveness of Indian debt, particularly as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) return to the market. After record selling in January, FPIs turned net buyers in early February, infusing over 8,100 crore rupees into the financial markets. This shift in capital flows is largely attributed to a stabilizing rupeeācurrently trading near 90.68 against the dollarāand the recent announcement of an Indo-US trade deal. The Reserve Bank of Indiaās proactive stance has further anchored the market. Through a series of debt-switch operations and open market purchases totaling nearly 4 trillion rupees between late 2025 and early 2026, the central bank has effectively managed redemption pressures and reduced the gross borrowing burden for the upcoming financial year. Despite the recent rally, some disconnect remains as the 10-year yield stays elevated relative to the repo rate, which was held steady at 5.25% in the February policy meeting. However, with headline inflation projected to remain muted at 2.1% for the 2025-26 fiscal year, the outlook for the bond market remains cautiously optimistic as investors eye further stabilization in borrowing costs.
Neelkanth Mishra: India Potential Beacon of Stability Amid Global Volatility
**India Market Brief: February 2026** India continues to cement its position as a pillar of global economic stability. Amid international fragmentation, the nationās commitment to fiscal discipline and open-market policies is successfully attracting a broad base of global partners and institutional capital. **Macroeconomic Indicators** The Reserve Bank of India has maintained the policy repo rate at 5.25% as of February 2026. This decision follows a neutral stance designed to balance strong growth with benign inflation. Real GDP growth for the 2025-26 fiscal year is estimated at a robust 7.4%. Inflation remains well-managed, with headline CPI projected at 2.1% for the current fiscal year. Fiscal consolidation is also a high priority, with the government setting a deficit target of 4.3% for the 2026-27 period, down from 4.4% in the previous year. **Equity Market Performance** Domestic stock markets are reflecting this stability through consistent gains. As of February 18, 2026, the BSE Sensex settled at 83,734.25, while the NSE Nifty 50 closed at 25,819.35. Market sentiment is buoyed by steady asset quality in the banking sector and a late-session surge in metal and FMCG shares. While the IT sector has seen some volatility due to global margin pressures, the broader market indicesāincluding midcap and smallcapāhave outperformed, rising 0.5% in recent sessions. **Sectoral Drivers: Real Estate and Power** Private investment is seeing a significant revival, particularly in infrastructure and housing. The real estate sector is transitioning toward sustainable and premium assets. Notably, warehousing has emerged as a high-conviction asset class, often outperforming traditional office spaces due to the expansion of e-commerce and logistics networks. The power sector is another critical growth engine. Indiaās installed capacity reached 505 GW by late 2025. There is an estimated investment opportunity of 40 lakh crore over the next decade. Renewable energy is leading this charge, with a record 20.1 GW of capacity added in the first half of the current fiscal year. **Investment Outlook** A strong domestic demand base and increased capital expenditure are fueling a durable growth runway. Foreign institutional investors remain active, recently purchasing equities worth over 995 crore in a single day. Government focus on ease of doing business and infrastructure creation, supported by a budgeted capital outlay of 12.22 lakh crore for the coming year, provides a clear roadmap for long-term investors. Indiaās transition toward a debt-to-GDP ratio of 55.6% further reinforces its reputation for macroeconomic prudence.
Key Stocks in Focus on Wednesday: E2E Networks, Godfrey Phillips, and Others
Indian equity markets maintained positive momentum on February 18, 2026, marking a third consecutive session of gains. The BSE Sensex rose **283.29 points** (0.34%) to finish at **83,734.25**, while the NSE Nifty 50 climbed **93.95 points** (0.37%) to close at **25,819.35**. Trading was characterized by a late-session surge. While IT stocks faced pressure due to concerns over industry-wide disruption, metals and state-owned banks provided significant support. Investor wealth grew by approximately **ā¹2 lakh crore** during the session. AI Infrastructure and Tech Partnerships Small-cap technology firms stole the spotlight following high-profile updates involving Nvidia. E2E Networks hit its **20% upper circuit** intraday, reaching **ā¹3,068.20**, before settling at **ā¹2,887**. The rally followed news of a collaboration to build advanced "AI factories" in India using Blackwell GPU clusters. Netweb Technologies also saw a sharp **8.9%** jump, closing at **ā¹3,374**. The company announced the launch of "Make in India" AI supercomputing solutions powered by Nvidia's latest architecture. These moves contrast with the broader Nifty IT index, which slipped **1.23%**. Consumer and Travel Movers Godfrey Phillips emerged as a top performer in the FMCG space, surging **20%** to hit **ā¹2,478**. The rally was fueled by reports of cigarette price hikes intended to offset recent excise duty increases. This move helped the stock significantly outperform its sector peers. Easy Trip Planners continued its volatile streak, rising **11%** during the session to reach **ā¹10.57**. The stock has gained nearly **60%** over the last three days. The momentum is supported by heavy volume in bulk deals and a newly announced plan to raise up to **ā¹500 crore** to expand its hotel and holiday segments. Electric Mobility and Recovery Ola Electric shares saw a brief reprieve, climbing nearly **5%** to an intraday high of **ā¹29.35**. The uptick followed a legal stay on an arrest warrant against its CEO. Despite the daily gain, the companyās fundamentals remain under scrutiny. Recent filings show a **55%** year-on-year revenue drop to **ā¹470 crore** for the December quarter, although net losses narrowed slightly to **ā¹490 crore**. Sectoral Highlights The Nifty Metal index led the charge with a **1.33%** gain, buoyed by shifting global trade signals regarding steel and aluminum tariffs. PSU Banks followed closely, rising **1.31%** to reach a fresh record high. Market breadth remained positive, with over **2,200** stocks advancing on the BSE against **1,900** declines. Total market capitalization of BSE-listed firms now stands near **ā¹472 lakh crore**.
RITES, Ahluwalia Contracts, and Two Small-Cap Stocks Projected for Up to 30% Upside
The Indian small-cap segment is currently navigating a period of selective volatility. As of February 18, 2026, the BSE Smallcap index has shown a modest five-day decline of **2.75%**, reflecting a cautious mood among investors despite a positive advance-decline ratio of **2.0x**. Against this backdrop, infrastructure and real estate picks are gaining attention due to robust order books and strategic pivots. The Union Budget 2026-27 has further bolstered sentiment with a **9%** increase in capital expenditure, totaling **ā¹12.22 lakh crore**. Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL) Kalpataru Projects is currently trading near **ā¹1,118**, maintaining a market capitalization of approximately **ā¹19,100 crore**. The company recently reported a massive **89%** year-on-year jump in net profit for the latest quarter, reaching **ā¹237 crore**. Its execution visibility is underpinned by a record-high consolidated order book of **ā¹64,682 crore**. Recent wins include a **ā¹719 crore** metro rail project in Thane and international T&D contracts worth **ā¹989 crore**, bringing its FY26 order intake to **ā¹14,951 crore**. RITES Ltd RITES is trading at approximately **ā¹221**, with a dividend yield of **3.41%**. Analysts maintain a positive outlook on this transport consultancy, with a consensus price target of **ā¹282.40**, suggesting a potential upside of over **27%**. The company continues to leverage its status as a leading engineering consultant. While revenue growth has faced recent headwinds, its operational margins remain healthy at **23.36%**, supported by a steady flow of domestic and international infrastructure consultancy assignments. Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Ahluwalia Contracts recently delivered a strong Q3 performance, with revenue from operations growing **11.43%** to **ā¹1,060.72 crore**. The companyās net profit for the nine-month period ending December 2025 surged by **55.6%**, reaching **ā¹184 crore**. A major catalyst for the firm is the recent securing of a contract worth **ā¹3,070 crore** in early 2026. Additionally, the board has approved the amalgamation of five subsidiaries to streamline its real estate and rental income operations, effective April 2026. Signature Global India Signature Global is pivoting toward the luxury and commercial segments in Gurugram. The company has formed a **ā¹1,283 crore** joint venture with RMZ Group to develop a massive mixed-use project on the Southern Peripheral Road, with a projected capital value of up to **ā¹16,000 crore**. Despite a reported Q3 consolidated net loss of **ā¹453 million** due to construction halts during pollution bans, the company is accelerating operations. It aims for sales bookings of **ā¹10,300 crore** this fiscal year, supported by a new luxury project expected to generate **ā¹5,000 crore** in revenue.
India Sotheby's International Realty and Interiors with Art Partner for Design Consultancy
India Sothebyās International Realty (India SIR) has officially entered a joint venture with London-based Interiors with Art (IWA) to launch a specialized design and architecture consultancy. This strategic alliance targets Indiaās surging population of High Net Worth Individuals (HNIs) and Ultra-High Net Worth Individuals (UHNIs) who are increasingly seeking globally benchmarked, turnkey residential solutions. The partnership arrives as the Indian luxury housing sector shifts from volume-based growth to a focus on "experience-led" value. The market is maturing rapidly, with premium housing expected to account for 40% of all new residential launches by the end of 2026. This move allows India SIR to provide end-to-end services beyond property transactions, covering bespoke interiors and architectural excellence. Market data for February 2026 highlights a resilient appetite for high-end assets despite global economic headwinds. Recent surveys indicate that 67% of Indiaās wealthy remain bullish on the countryās growth story, with 72% expecting GDP to maintain a steady 6-7% range. Physical real estate remains a cornerstone of these portfolios, with 64% of affluent investors maintaining or increasing their property allocations this year. The demand for luxury is now spreading beyond traditional hubs like Mumbai and Delhi-NCR. Major transaction activity is currently concentrated in Gurugram, which hosted 87% of luxury launches in late 2025, alongside emerging high-growth zones in Hyderabad, Bengaluru, and lifestyle destinations like Goa. Annual residential price appreciation in these prime corridors is projected to hold steady between 5% and 10%. The collaboration with IWA brings over 24 years of experience serving royal families and global billionaires to the Indian market. This expertise addresses a critical trend where 60% of buyers now prioritize wellness amenities, privacy-centric layouts, and "service-led" living over sheer square footage. On the investment front, the luxury segment is outperforming the broader market. The Sothebyās network reported a massive USD 157 billion in transaction volume globally in the last fiscal year, reflecting the strength of the brand. In India, the luxury residential market is forecasted to grow at a compound annual rate of over 6%, potentially reaching a value of USD 44.82 billion by the early 2030s. Wealthy buyers are also moving toward professionalization, with 20% now using specialized advisors for their property decisions. By integrating IWAās architectural consultancy, India SIR positions itself to capture this demand for "wealth-preservation" assets that offer both aesthetic superiority and long-term capital stability.
Indian Rupee appreciates to 90.67 per US Dollar
The Indian rupee maintained a resilient stance in mid-February 2026, closing at **90.67** against the US dollar. This marginal gain of **5 paise** reflects a delicate balancing act between robust domestic fundamentals and persistent global headwinds. The local unit found significant support from the domestic equity markets, where the Sensex climbed by over **280 points** to settle at **83,734.25**, while the Nifty 50 advanced toward the **25,820** level. Investor sentiment remains bolstered by recent trade agreements and steady corporate earnings, which have encouraged foreign institutional investors to remain active participants, contributing over **ā¹995 crore** in net purchases during recent sessions. External Pressures and Constraints Despite these inflows, the rupeeās appreciation was capped by a strengthening US Dollar Index, which rose to **97.22**. Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserveās upcoming policy cues, as US interest rates are expected to remain at **3.50%-3.75%** for the near term. This keeps the greenback attractive to global investors, limiting the upside for emerging market currencies. Energy costs also continue to weigh on the rupee's outlook. Brent crude prices have trended higher, trading near **$67.57** per barrel. As India relies heavily on imported oil, these price fluctuations increase the demand for dollars among importers, creating a natural resistance level for the rupee near the **90.75** mark. Liquidity and Central Bank Action The Reserve Bank of India has been active in managing volatility, keeping the currency within a narrow range of **90.60 to 90.71**. To support the banking system, the central bank has injected significant liquidity through Open Market Operations, totaling more than **ā¹6.39 trillion** so far in the current fiscal year. While absolute cash in circulation has reached a record **ā¹40 lakh crore**, the growing adoption of digital payments has kept the cash-to-GDP ratio stable at approximately **11.2%**. This structural shift, combined with a narrowing fiscal deficit target of **4.3%**, provides a stable macroeconomic backdrop even as global geopolitical tensions persist. Forex traders expect the rupee to remain range-bound in the coming weeks. The interplay between sustained foreign fund inflows and the central bank's intervention strategy will likely define the currency's trajectory as it navigates the final quarter of the fiscal year.
Sensex Gains 283 Points and Nifty Surpasses 25,800 Amid Mixed Sectoral Performance
Market Brief: Benchmark Indices Extend Gains The Indian equity markets demonstrated resilience on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive session of gains. Domestic benchmarks were propelled by heavy buying in the metal and banking sectors, effectively neutralizing a localized drag in technology stocks. The **S&P BSE Sensex** jumped **283.29 points**, or **0.34%**, to settle at **83,734.25**. Simultaneously, the **NSE Nifty 50** rallied **93.95 points**, or **0.37%**, closing above the psychological hurdle at **25,819.35**. Sectoral Performance and Gainers Buying was broad-based as the midcap and smallcap segments outperformed the headline indices. Market capitalization for all BSE-listed firms rose by approximately **ā¹2 lakh crore**, reaching a total of nearly **ā¹472 lakh crore**. * **Nifty Metal:** The top-performing sector, surging **1.33%**. Key movers included **Tata Steel**, which rose **2.93%**, and **Hindustan Copper**, up **3.63%**. * **PSU Banks:** Public sector lenders maintained their record-breaking streak for a third day, with the index rising **1.31%**. **Punjab National Bank** and **Union Bank** were among the leaders hitting fresh **52-week highs**. * **FMCG & Heavyweights:** Strong support came from **ITC**, which climbed **2.21%**, and **Reliance Industries**, adding **1.26%**. Technology Sector Drag The **Nifty IT index** was the sole sectoral outlier, declining **1.23%**. Investors rotated out of software stocks following a brief relief rally earlier in the week. Major losers in this space included **Wipro (-1.73%)**, **Tech Mahindra (-1.60%)**, and **Infosys (-1.40%)**. Cautious sentiment persists in this sector as firms adjust to evolving shifts in service delivery frameworks. Global Cues and Geopolitics Global markets provided a mixed but supportive backdrop. In the U.S., the **Dow Jones** and **S&P 500** futures pointed toward a positive opening as investors parsed upcoming federal policy minutes. The commodities market reacted sharply to diplomatic shifts. **Brent crude** prices fluctuated near **$67.83 per barrel** as traders weighed ongoing negotiations between the **U.S. and Iran** in Oman. While earlier sessions saw a "war premium" due to military drills in the **Strait of Hormuz**, recent progress in de-escalation talks has eased immediate supply disruption fears, causing crude prices to edge lower from their January peaks. Currency and Fixed Income The Indian rupee saw a marginal appreciation, closing at **90.68** against the U.S. dollar, compared to its previous close of **90.72**. In the bond market, the yield on the **10-year benchmark federal paper** rose slightly to **6.676%**, reflecting a steady domestic macro environment. Volatility expectations cooled as the **India VIX** dropped **3.55%** to settle at **12.22**.
Sula Vineyards Promoter Stake Increases to 24.5% in First Purchase Since 2022 IPO
Market Brief: Sula Vineyards Activity **Promoter Confidence Signals Rebound** Promoter activity has returned to Sula Vineyards as Founder and CEO Rajeev Suresh Samant increased his stake to **24.5%**. This represents the first such increase since the companyās IPO in December 2022. The move is widely viewed by market participants as a signal of long-term confidence from leadership, despite the stock facing significant technical and fundamental pressure in recent months. **Quarterly Financial Overview** The company reported a challenging Q3 for the fiscal year ending December 2025. Consolidated net profit plummeted by **67.6%** year-on-year, landing at **9.10 crore**. Revenue from operations also saw a decline of approximately **9.7%**, totaling **195.7 crore** for the quarter. These results underscore a difficult period for the core wine business, which has been impacted by both regulatory and demand-side shifts. **Regional and Operational Headwinds** The downturn was largely attributed to a one-time tactical destocking in Karnataka, Sulaās second-largest market. This move was intended to right-size channel inventory amidst subdued urban demand in Bengaluru. Additionally, the company faced rising operational costs, including a **1.7 crore** charge related to new labor code implementations. Consequently, EBITDA margins contracted significantly to **16.3%**, down from **24.5%** in the previous year. **Wine Tourism: The Growth Driver** While the core "Own Brands" segment faced headwinds, Sula's wine tourism wing emerged as a standout performer. The segment recorded its highest-ever quarterly revenue of **22 crore**, marking a **33.7%** year-on-year growth. This surge was fueled by a **17%** increase in visitor footfalls and the expansion of 'The Haven by Sula' resort. Wine tourism now contributes over **11%** to the total revenue mix. **Market Performance and Outlook** As of mid-February 2026, Sula Vineyards' stock is trading near its 52-week lows, hovering around the **178.00** to **180.00** range. The stock has declined roughly **40%** over the past year. However, management suggests that profitability may have bottomed out in Q3. Recovery is expected to be driven by a rebound in Maharashtra, the company's largest market, and strong festive demand in the premium segment. **Strategic Portfolio Stability** Despite volume challenges, Sula has maintained its focus on premiumization. The "Elite & Premium" category continues to account for approximately **80%** of own-brand revenue. Specifically, the 'Source' range demonstrated healthy double-digit growth, increasing its share within the portfolio to **11%**. This focus on high-margin products remains central to the company's strategy for margin normalization in the upcoming quarters.
Analyzing India's Progress Toward the 500 GW Renewable Energy Target by 2030
India is accelerating its transition to a green economy, surpassing major milestones well ahead of schedule. As of February 2026, the nationās total installed power capacity has reached 520.5 GW. For the first time, non-fossil fuel sourcesāincluding solar, wind, hydro, and nuclearāaccount for more than 52% of this total, standing at 272 GW. This achievement marks the successful fulfillment of Indiaās COP26 pledge to derive 50% of its power from clean sources by 2030, hitting the target four years early. The current financial year 2025-26 has seen a record-breaking addition of 52,537 MW in generation capacity, with 80% of new installations coming from renewable energy. Solar energy continues to lead the sector with a cumulative capacity of 141 GW, followed by wind power at 55 GW. Strategic focus has now shifted toward offshore wind, with the identification of key zones off the coasts of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Recent auctions under the National Green Hydrogen Mission have also seen green hydrogen prices fall to a historic low of 279 INR per kg. A significant shift in market dynamics is the transition from plain renewable tenders to Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy (FDRE). To manage the intermittency of solar and wind, battery energy storage systems (BESS) are seeing a massive scale-up. Capacity is projected to surge tenfold to 5 GWh in 2026, supported by a 5,400 crore INR Viability Gap Funding scheme. Despite the rapid supply growth, power demand has shown signs of volatility. While January 2026 recorded a 5% year-on-year increase in demand reaching 143 billion units, overall growth for the fiscal year has been moderated by a prolonged monsoon. Peak demand reached a new high of 245 GW during the recent winter cold wave. Investors are closely monitoring the financial health of distribution companies (discoms), which currently carry a debt burden of 7.18 lakh crore INR. The Draft National Electricity Policy 2026 aims to address this through cost-reflective tariffs and mandatory renewable consumption obligations. The sector is moving toward a more integrated grid architecture. With over 190 GW of non-fossil capacity currently under implementation or tendered, the path toward the 500 GW clean energy goal by 2030 remains highly viable. Success now depends on the seamless integration of storage technologies and the stabilization of long-term power purchase agreements.
SBI Funds Management to File for $1.5 Billion IPO in March
SBI Funds Management Ltd., the dominant force in Indiaās asset management landscape, is moving toward a public listing with a planned initial public offering (IPO) expected to launch before September 2026. The firm is reportedly targeting a valuation of **$14 billion to $15 billion**, positioning it as a significant heavyweight in the financial services sector. This valuation places it just behind ICICI Prudential AMC, which currently holds a market capitalization of approximately **$17.7 billion (ā¹1.48 lakh crore)** as of mid-February 2026. Offering Structure and Capital The IPO is projected to raise between **$1.4 billion and $1.5 billion (ā¹12,500 crore ā ā¹15,700 crore)**. The issue is expected to be primarily an Offer for Sale (OFS), as the company maintains a robust capital position. Promoters State Bank of India (SBI) and Amundi Asset Management aim to offload a combined **10% stake**. Specifically, SBI is slated to sell **6.3%** of its holdings, while Amundi will divest **3.7%**. SBI leadership has clarified that no fresh capital infusion is required for the bankās credit growth through 2030, given its strong capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio of **15%**. Market Context and Sector Trends The listing comes at a pivotal moment for the Indian mutual fund industry. Total assets under management (AUM) reached a record **ā¹81.01 lakh crore** in January 2026, marking a **20.5%** year-on-year increase. * **Retail Momentum:** SIP inflows hit an all-time high of **ā¹31,002 crore** in January 2026. * **Asset Shift:** The AUM-to-bank deposit ratio has climbed to **32.6%**, nearly tripling over the last decade. * **Passive Growth:** Passive fund AUM surged **38%** over the past year, now accounting for **19%** of the total industry AUM. Strategic Outlook SBI Funds Management continues to lead with an AUM exceeding **ā¹12.5 trillion**. The firm is leveraging its extensive distribution network of over **22,000 SBI branches** to deepen penetration in Tier-II and Tier-III cities. While the IPO is set to unlock significant value, the market remains selective. Investors are closely watching fee structures and the impact of new SEBI regulations on expense ratios, effective April 2026, which may influence long-term margin stability for the sector.
European stocks edge higher led by defense gains ahead of ECB policy cues
European equity markets advanced on Wednesday, edging closer to record levels. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% to reach 626.71 points, supported by a significant rally in the defense sector. Defense stocks surged more than 2% following a standout performance from the UKās BAE Systems. The company reported a 10% increase in full-year sales to a record Ā£30.7 billion, while underlying operating profit climbed 12% to Ā£3.32 billion. BAE Systems shares jumped nearly 6% as the firm highlighted a record order backlog of Ā£83.6 billion. Investor interest in the sector was further bolstered by reports that Germany is considering a minority stake in KNDS, the manufacturer of the Leopard tank, ahead of its planned listing. The market also processed reports regarding potential leadership changes at the European Central Bank. Financial Times reports suggest President Christine Lagarde may step down before the 2027 French elections to allow for a structured succession. Despite the news, market reaction remained calm. The ECB currently maintains its benchmark interest rate at 2.0%, with inflation projections stabilizing near the 2% target for 2026. Investors do not anticipate immediate shifts in monetary policy. Wider market moves were also influenced by earnings in other sectors. Carrefour shares dropped 5% after the retailer reported a decline in operating profit. Conversely, the German DAX climbed 0.8% and the UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.3%. Investor focus now shifts to the release of Federal Reserve minutes for further signals on the global interest rate outlook. In the UK, factory gate inflation eased to 2.5% in January, its lowest level in seven months, providing some relief to the broader economic narrative.