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EaseMyTrip Shares Surge 60% Over Three Trading Sessions
EaseMyTrip: Market Brief February 2026 Shares of Easy Trip Planners (EaseMyTrip) witnessed a significant surge this week, climbing nearly **60%** across three trading sessions. The rally pushed the stock to an intra-day high of **₹10.57** on February 18, 2026. This momentum was largely triggered by a series of high-volume bulk deals and a major corporate announcement regarding capital infusion. The company's Board of Directors has provided in-principle approval to raise up to **₹500 crore**. This capital is slated to be raised through various instruments, including equity shares, rights issues, or Qualified Institutions Placement (QIP). The move is designed to provide the travel-tech platform with the financial flexibility required to scale high-margin segments and invest in long-term infrastructure. Strategic Growth Drivers The primary focus for the new capital includes a massive expansion into the hotels and holiday packages market. While air passage remains the company's largest revenue contributor, the hotel segment showed a robust **40.74%** year-on-year growth in the most recent quarter. The company aims to capitalize on this momentum to diversify away from its core ticketing business. Technology investments also remain a priority. The firm plans to utilize a portion of the **₹500 crore** to upgrade its digital platform and enhance user experience through advanced data analytics and AI-driven personalization. These upgrades are intended to keep the platform competitive as the Indian travel sector moves toward "micro-cations" and experience-led tourism. Financial Performance Review Recent earnings for Q3 FY26 presented a mixed picture. The company achieved its highest-ever quarterly revenue from operations at **₹151.7 crore**, representing a **28.2%** sequential increase. Additionally, its Dubai operations showed remarkable growth, with Gross Booking Revenue (GBR) jumping **133.2%** year-on-year to **₹397.6 crore**. However, profitability faces significant headwinds. Net profit for the quarter plummeted to **₹5.85 crore**, an **82.6%** decline compared to the previous year. This drop was driven by a sharp compression in operating margins, which fell to **2.82%** from over **31%** a year ago, largely due to rising employee costs and increased marketing spend. Sector Outlook and Trends The broader Indian travel market is entering a high-demand phase in February 2026. Trends indicate a shift toward short, 2-to-4-day itineraries and event-based travel. Domestic hotspots such as Gulmarg and Auli are seeing heavy bookings, while international interest is focused on short-haul destinations like the UAE and Thailand. EaseMyTrip is positioning itself to capture this "micro-cation" boom by strengthening its supply partnerships and expanding its holiday package portfolio. Despite the current pressure on margins, the massive **₹500 crore** fundraise signal's management’s intent to double down on market share and technological leadership in a rapidly evolving travel landscape.
Nithin Kamath on the Risks of Margin Trading and the Importance of Tracking Key Metrics
Market Brief: The Rising Cost of Leverage The Margin Trading Facility (MTF) in India has seen an explosive five-fold growth since 2019, with the total book value now exceeding **₹1.10 lakh crore**. While retail participation remains high, a critical shift in the regulatory and cost landscape is fundamentally altering the math for leveraged traders. Hidden Costs and Breakeven Pressure Nithin Kamath has issued a fresh caution to investors who focus solely on interest rates while ignoring the compounding effect of brokerage and taxes. In a leveraged trade, every cost is magnified because the investor's actual capital contribution is only a fraction of the total trade value. Current market data shows that for a typical **₹11 lakh** trade, the points required to break even can more than quadruple depending on the frequency of trades and the fee structure. For short-term traders, brokerage alone can be the difference between a minor profit and a net loss. Regulatory Squeeze and Liquidity Risks The Reserve Bank of India has introduced a major policy shift effective **April 1, 2026**. Banks are now mandated to provide credit to market intermediaries only on a **100% fully collateralised** basis. This move is expected to: * Reduce overall system leverage * Increase capital blockage for brokers * Raise the cost of bank guarantees significantly Under the new framework, equity shares used as collateral will face a minimum haircut of **40%**, further tightening the available liquidity for active traders. Current Market Benchmarks As of **February 18, 2026**, market indicators reflect a cautious but stable environment: * **Sensex:** **83,428.13** * **Nifty 50:** **25,722.40** * **10-Year G-Sec Yield:** **6.67%** * **USD/INR:** **90.67** Institutional activity remains mixed, with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) buying approximately **₹995 crore** in the latest session, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) showed marginal buying of **₹187 crore**. Strategy for Leveraged Positions With the structural risks of MTF rising, the "breakeven math" has become more punishing. Traders are encouraged to treat leverage as a high-precision tool rather than a capital substitute. Success in the current high-cost environment requires capturing larger price moves to offset the interest—which typically ranges between **10% and 18% annually**—and the inevitable friction of statutory taxes and brokerage fees.
Blackstone-Backed Liftoff Mobile Refiles for US IPO Following Initial Withdrawal
Liftoff Mobile, the adtech giant backed by Blackstone, has shifted its strategy by filing for a confidential initial public offering. This move follows the official withdrawal of its previous listing plans on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. The company had originally targeted a **$711 million** raise with a valuation reaching **$5.17 billion**. The offering was structured for **25.4 million shares** priced between **$26 and $30**. However, a sharp sell-off in software and tech stocks forced a postponement earlier this month. Current market conditions are shaped by investor caution regarding artificial intelligence. Fears that AI tools could disrupt margins for established software firms have triggered a broad industry rout. Despite these headwinds, the adtech sector remains resilient, with the global market projected to reach **$1.12 trillion** in 2026. Liftoff’s financial health provides a strong foundation for its eventual debut. The company reported revenue of **$634 million** for the **12 months** ending September 2025. While it faces a net loss of approximately **$66 million**, its core advertising revenue saw a **40% increase** in the most recent nine-month period. The platform's scale is significant, reaching **1.4 billion** daily active users globally. This reach is a key asset as the mobile segment of the adtech market is expected to see the highest growth rates this year. Blackstone, which formed the current entity through a 2021 merger with Vungle, is expected to remain the majority shareholder. The pivot to a confidential filing allows the company to wait for a more stable window later in **2026**. This approach offers flexibility as the market digests the impact of AI and shifts in Federal Reserve leadership. The move is seen as a tactical delay rather than an abandonment of the public markets. Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Morgan Stanley continue to lead the underwriting syndicate. The firm’s decision reflects a broader trend among high-value startups choosing to delay listings until tech valuations recover from recent lows.
Comparative Analysis of Gold and 20–30% U.S. Portfolio Allocations as Inflation Hedges
**MARKET BRIEF: ASSET ALLOCATION UPDATE FEBRUARY 2026** Gold and US equities have emerged from a transformative 2025 with strong momentum, though recent weeks have introduced tactical volatility. As of mid-February 2026, the investment landscape is defined by record-breaking gold prices and a tech-driven US equity market facing fresh structural questions. **Gold Performance and Outlook** Gold has delivered exceptional returns, surging approximately **65%** during 2025. In the first six weeks of 2026, the metal scaled **12 all-time highs**, briefly breaching the **$5,400 per ounce** mark in late January. Despite a subsequent correction toward the **$4,900 – $5,000** range in mid-February, the structural bull case remains intact. In the Indian market, the price per 10 grams hit a record **INR 175,231** in January before easing by roughly **7%** in February. Institutional forecasts remain bullish, with year-end 2026 targets ranging from **$5,055** to **$5,600 per ounce**. Demand is currently driven by central bank accumulation, which is expected to reach up to **800 tonnes** this year, and strong inflows into gold ETFs. **US Equity Markets and Tech Volatility** US markets started February with resilience but have recently entered a "paused" phase. The S&P 500 is hovering near **6,850 points**, while the Nasdaq Composite sits around **22,600**. While January payroll data showed a robust addition of **130,000 jobs** and unemployment fell to **4.3%**, markets are grappling with "AI disruption fears." Heavyweight tech stocks, including Alphabet and Nvidia, have seen localized pullbacks as investors reassess valuations. Despite this, corporate fundamentals remain solid with **76%** of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates in the latest quarter. **Strategic Implications for Indian Investors** The case for US equities remains anchored in a potential currency kicker. The US dollar is estimated to be roughly **15% overvalued** on a fair-value basis, suggesting that any further rupee depreciation could boost the effective returns for Indian holders of US assets. A strategic allocation of **20–30%** to US equities is recommended to capture global innovation and hedge domestic currency risk. Conversely, a measured gold allocation of **10–15%** continues to serve as an essential "shock absorber." This balance protects portfolios against geopolitical flare-ups—such as recent US-Iran tensions—while maintaining exposure to the compounding power of the US tech and manufacturing sectors. Current market levels suggest that while gold offers a resilient floor, US equities provide the necessary growth engine for long-term wealth creation. Investors should prioritize systematic entries during the current February pullbacks to build efficient, diversified positions for the remainder of 2026.
Shreyash Devalkar Discusses Investment Trends Amid Market Volatility in AI and IT Sectors
Indian Market Brief: Sectoral Shifts and AI Realignment The Indian equities landscape is undergoing a structural transformation as of February 2026. Heavyweight sectors are trading places in influence, driven by technological disruption in software and a robust credit cycle in finance. IT Services: The AI Recalibration The Nifty IT index has faced a significant reset, declining more than 13% since the start of 2026. This sell-off is rooted in shifting growth expectations as Artificial Intelligence moves from experimental phases to large-scale deployment. Investors have recalibrated valuations, reflecting a 22.4% drop over the last 12 months. The sector's weightage in the benchmark Nifty 50 has contracted to 8.7%, down from 13.05% at the start of the previous year. While the India AI Impact Summit 2026 highlights massive infrastructure scaling, including 38,000+ GPUs, the software services model is under pressure to evolve beyond traditional maintenance. Banking and Finance: The New Growth Anchor Financials have emerged as the primary market driver, with the banking sector's weight in the key index rising to a record 27.6%. This rotation is supported by healthy credit growth, which is projected to expand by approximately 10.8% for FY2026. Asset quality remains a core strength as the non-performing asset (NPA) cycle bottoms out. Gross NPAs are expected to remain controlled between 2.3% and 2.5% by the fiscal end. Despite high credit-to-deposit ratios and a minor decline in net interest margins, the Bank Nifty has gained roughly 24% over the past year, significantly outperforming broader benchmarks. Manufacturing and Capex: Policy-Driven Momentum The manufacturing and capital expenditure themes are reinforced by the Union Budget 2026-27, which allocated ₹12.2 trillion to public capex—an 11% year-on-year increase. Manufacturing GVA growth reached 9.13% in the second quarter of the current fiscal, signaling strong industrial momentum. Infrastructure and defense remain the primary beneficiaries, with defense allocations rising 18% to ₹2.19 trillion. While the fundamental outlook for electronics and semiconductor manufacturing is at an all-time high, high valuations in capital goods stocks remain a point of caution for new entries. Automobiles: Recovery in Commercial Segments The automotive sector is witnessing a "tale of two halves." While overall volume growth is expected to moderate to 3-6% in the coming fiscal, the commercial vehicle (CV) segment shows resilience with a projected 4-6% growth. Bus volumes are a specific bright spot, expected to grow 7-9% due to replacement demand from state transport undertakings. Premiumization continues to drive margins in the passenger vehicle and two-wheeler segments, even as entry-level demand remains sensitive to price hikes. Consumption and FMCG: Margin vs. Volume The FMCG sector reported a 9% revenue growth in recent quarterly data, but this was largely supported by GST adjustments and price corrections rather than organic pricing power. Volume growth has stabilized at approximately 6%. Although easing inflation and falling input costs for palm oil and crude provide some relief, the risk-reward ratio remains unfavorable for many investors. High valuations in staples persist despite the completion of the earnings downgrade cycle, leading to a selective approach focusing on premiumization and wellness categories.
E2E Networks and Netweb Tech Shares Surge Following Nvidia Collaboration
Indian AI Infrastructure Brief: February 18, 2026 Market momentum in the Indian technology sector has reached a fever pitch today. Investors are reacting to landmark infrastructure deals that position domestic firms as critical nodes in the global artificial intelligence supply chain. E2E Networks Hits Upper Circuit E2E Networks witnessed an extraordinary surge of **20.0%** during today's session. The stock hit its upper circuit limit, closing at **₹3,068.20**. This massive rally follows the announcement of a strategic collaboration with Nvidia to address the soaring demand for AI compute in India. The company is currently building an Nvidia Blackwell GPU cluster on its TIR platform. This infrastructure will be hosted at the L&T Vyoma data center in Chennai. This deployment is a cornerstone for "Sovereign AI," providing the high-performance computing necessary for local enterprises to develop proprietary models in sectors like finance and healthcare. Netweb Technologies Strategic Launch Netweb Technologies also saw significant buying interest, with its shares rallying as much as **8.78%** to reach an intraday high of **₹3,371.10**. The gains were triggered by the official launch of its 'Make in India' AI supercomputing systems. Netweb unveiled the Tyrone Camarero Spark, touted as one of the world's smallest AI supercomputers. Despite its compact **5.9-inch** cube form factor, the system delivers **1 PetaFlop** of performance. It is powered by the Nvidia GB10 Grace Blackwell Superchip and is designed specifically for local model fine-tuning and inference. Broader Market Context These developments align with the ongoing India AI Impact Summit 2026. The government recently announced plans to expand the national compute capacity beyond the current **38,000 GPUs**. Recent policy updates have further fueled this sector, including a long-term tax holiday for AI data centers and a projected investment flow of over **$200 billion** into the domestic AI ecosystem over the next two years. The Indian public cloud market is maintaining a robust growth trajectory, with a projected **20–25%** CAGR. This growth is increasingly driven by specialized AI workloads, moving away from general-purpose computing toward high-density GPU infrastructure.
ECB President Lagarde may resign before end of Macron's term, report says
**EUROZONE MARKET BRIEF: LEADERSHIP STABILITY AND MONETARY OUTLOOK** The European Central Bank (ECB) remains at a critical policy junction as of February 2026. Despite recurring rumors regarding an early exit to navigate the French political landscape or to transition to global leadership roles, President Christine Lagarde has formally reiterated her commitment to completing her eight-year term. Her mandate is currently set to conclude on October 31, 2027. **Key Monetary Decisions** In its latest February 2026 policy meeting, the ECB opted to maintain its benchmark interest rates. The rate on main refinancing operations stands at **2.15%**, while the deposit facility and marginal lending rates remain steady at **2.00%** and **2.40%** respectively. This pause follows a total of **200 basis points** in cuts delivered since June 2024. **Inflation and Growth Metrics** Eurozone inflation has shown a significant downward trajectory, hitting **1.7%** in January 2026. This brings the headline figure below the bank’s medium-term target of **2.0%**. However, core inflation remains slightly more persistent at **2.2%**, driven primarily by service sector costs and steady wage growth. The economic growth outlook for the bloc remains modest. GDP is forecast to grow by **1.1%** in 2026 and **1.5%** in 2027. Domestic demand is currently the primary engine of this growth, supported by a resilient labor market, while external trade faces headwinds from global geopolitical uncertainty and shifting tariff policies. **Market Performance and Indicators** The Euro has demonstrated relative strength, trading at approximately **1.184 USD** as of February 18, 2026. While a strong currency helps dampen imported inflation, officials have noted that continued appreciation could weigh on export competitiveness, particularly for the German economy which is currently navigating structural headwinds and an aging demographic. **Strategic Shifts** The ECB is currently focusing on enhancing its financial toolkit, including updates to the Eurosystem repo facility (EUREP) to improve liquidity provision to non-euro area central banks. This move is designed to stabilize the transmission of monetary policy amid high global volatility. Additionally, the bank is monitoring the impact of new technologies and increased defense spending as significant long-term drivers of European productivity. Speculation regarding a successor continues to focus on the necessity of joint French and German backing. While potential candidates like Isabel Schnabel have been mentioned in technical discussions, the focus remains on the current leadership's ability to navigate the transition toward a neutral monetary stance without unsettling financial markets. [Watch the ECB's February 2026 Press Conference](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2c6h9H5LRwU) This video provides the official primary source for the ECB's latest rate decisions and President Lagarde's direct comments on the eurozone economic outlook. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
JGB Yields Rise as Markets Weigh Fiscal Policy and BOJ Rate Outlook
Japanese government bond (JGB) markets have entered a period of heightened volatility, marked by a significant sell-off in January 2026 that pushed yields to multi-year highs. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield recently touched 2.23%, a surge of approximately 100 basis points from the previous year, as investors priced in a more aggressive tightening cycle and fiscal expansion. Market sentiment is currently driven by a tug-of-war between ambitious government spending and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) normalization path. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration has proposed a record 122.3 trillion yen budget for fiscal 2026. While the government has signaled it will seek non-debt revenues to fund tax cuts on food, the Ministry of Finance warns that annual bond issuance could surge 28% by 2029 due to rising debt-servicing costs. The Bank of Japan remains on a path toward higher rates, with the current policy rate sitting at 0.75%. Inflation has persistently exceeded the 2% target for nearly four years, reaching 3.1% in recent months. Analysts expect the central bank to hike rates again in April 2026, with some forecasting up to three increases this year to bring the policy rate toward a neutral stance by 2027. The super-long end of the curve has faced the most intense pressure. Yields on 40-year bonds briefly exploded to 4.0% in late January—a psychological level not seen in three decades—before retreating slightly to 2.18% in mid-February as global bond markets stabilized. This retreat followed reassurances that the BoJ would maintain a flexible approach to bond-buying operations to prevent market dysfunction. The Japanese yen has become a central factor in policy calculations. Trading around the 153 level per dollar, the currency has seen volatile swings. While the yen rallied nearly 3% in early February on safe-haven demand, it remains vulnerable to the wide interest rate gap between Japan and the United States. BoJ officials are closely monitoring the yen’s impact on import-driven inflation, which could accelerate the timing of the next rate hike. Institutional investors are beginning to recalibrate as real interest rates turn positive for the first time in two decades. Higher domestic yields are expected to encourage Japanese banks and insurers to shift a portion of their 5 trillion dollar foreign asset holdings back into JGBs. However, the transition is proving painful for regional lenders, who are already recognizing mark-to-market losses on their existing bond portfolios. Economic growth remains a complicating factor. Fourth-quarter GDP expanded by just 0.1%, falling short of the 0.4% forecast. Weak consumer spending highlights the strain high inflation is placing on households, even as nominal wages rise at a historic pace. This "soft" data provides the BoJ with a reason to remain gradual in its tightening, even as fiscal pressures urge a faster move toward higher rates.
**Australian and New Zealand Equities Rise as NAB Reaches Record High**
Market Overview: Trans-Tasman Equities Surge Australian and New Zealand markets recorded significant gains this week as a flurry of corporate earnings and central bank stability provided a clear path for investors. The **ASX 200** successfully reclaimed the **9,000** psychological barrier, trending toward its record high of **9,115.2** points. Positive sentiment was fueled by a dominant performance in the banking and mining sectors, which helped the index maintain its upward trajectory despite a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Australia: Banking and Resources Lead the Charge National Australia Bank (NAB) emerged as a primary market mover. The lender reported a **16%** jump in first-quarter cash earnings to **$2 billion**, driven by robust business and home lending volumes. NAB shares surged as much as **5.8%** to reach an all-time record high of **$47.96**. This performance follows a trend of strong bank results, including a **17%** profit rise from ANZ and upbeat earnings from CBA, which recently posted a **$5.37 billion** half-year profit. The resources sector added further momentum. Mining giant BHP saw its shares soar over **7.5%** to a record **$54.20** following a blockbuster result. The company reported a **25%** jump in underlying EBITDA to **$15.5 billion** and lifted its dividend by **46%** to **$0.73** per share. Despite the market strength, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a cautious stance. The cash rate currently sits at **3.85%**, with officials signaling that inflation remains "stubbornly high" at **3.6%** to **4.2%**, potentially delaying any near-term rate relief. New Zealand: RBNZ Stability Sparks Recovery The New Zealand market experienced a significant relief rally after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) opted to keep the official cash rate steady at **2.25%**. This decision met market expectations and provided a much-needed boost to local equities. The **S&P/NZX 50** showed a sharp recovery following a period of volatility. Investors responded positively to the RBNZ’s outlook, which suggests that inflation will return to the **1% to 3%** target band within the current quarter. While the central bank noted that the economy is in the early stages of recovery, it emphasized that monetary policy will remain accommodative. This stance helped offset recent drags in the healthcare sector, where stocks like Fisher & Paykel Healthcare had previously faced pressure. Key Performance Indicators * **ASX 200:** Trading near **9,031**, targeting the **9,115** record high. * **NAB Shares:** Hit record high of **$47.96**. * **BHP Shares:** Reached record high of **$54.20**. * **RBNZ Cash Rate:** Held steady at **2.25%**. * **RBA Cash Rate:** Maintained at **3.85%**. Broad-based growth in Australian business investment, projected to rise to **3.7%** by mid-2026, continues to anchor the regional growth outlook despite global trade uncertainties.
PSU Banks and Capital Goods Drive Market Growth: Dipan Mehta
Market Outlook: PSU Banks and Infrastructure Lead 2026 Growth The Indian equity market continues to show a distinct divide between cyclical strength and consumption-led caution. As of February 18, 2026, the **Nifty 50** remains in a consolidation phase near the **25,700** level, while the **Sensex** hovers around **83,300**. Despite a subdued tone in the broader indices caused by a retreat in IT counters, Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks and the capital goods sector are demonstrating significant technical momentum. PSU Banking Sector Re-Rating The valuation gap between PSU banks and their private peers is narrowing rapidly as state-run lenders undergo a structural revival. The **Nifty PSU Bank index** has recently surged to **9,304**, reflecting a **1.5%** gain in a single session. This outperformance is driven by improved asset quality, with top-tier PSU banks reporting Net Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) below **0.5%** to **1.0%**. **Indian Bank** hit an all-time high of **928** today, marking a **78.55%** return over the past year. **State Bank of India (SBI)** has also shown strong momentum, with its market capitalization crossing **11.14 lakh crore** and share prices reaching **1,206.5**. Investors are increasingly viewing these entities as value plays due to healthy Return on Assets (ROA) of approximately **1%** and credit growth sustained at **14%**. Capital Goods and Infrastructure Surge The capital goods sector is emerging as a primary pillar of India’s investment-led growth. The Union Budget 2026-27 has bolstered this sentiment by increasing public capital expenditure to **12.2 lakh crore**, a **9%** rise from previous estimates. This fiscal push is directly benefiting firms with robust order books and diversified engineering portfolios. **Larsen & Toubro (L&T)** continues to dominate the segment, with its market capitalization nearing the **6 trillion** milestone. The firm holds a record order backlog of **7.33 trillion**, supported by a **30%** year-on-year increase. Its stock currently trades near a 52-week peak of **4,279**, fueled by a **10%** rally over the last month. Other major players like **BHEL** have also secured significant contracts, including a recent power plant order valued between **1,200 and 1,500 crore**. FMCG Growth Deceleration In contrast to the industrial boom, the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector faces a cautious outlook. High wholesale inflation, which rose to **1.81%** in January 2026, has put pressure on margins. While volume-led growth is expected to stay between **6% and 8%** for the fiscal year, revenue realizations remain constrained by intense competition and rising input costs for manufactured products. Rural demand remains a relative bright spot, showing a **7.7%** volume expansion compared to **3.7%** in urban markets. However, the **Nifty FMCG index** has slipped as investors rotate capital away from defensive consumption stocks into high-growth infrastructure and cyclical banking themes. Selective premium offerings and quick commerce channels remain the only segments showing high-double-digit growth potential within the consumer space.
Ola IPO decline in context: Comparative performance of recent listings and underperforming stocks.
The Indian primary market is facing a significant cooling period as of February 2026, with secondary market volatility and shifting investor sentiment creating a challenging environment for new listings. While high-profile names once dominated headlines, the focus has shifted to a broader correction that has left many investors underwater. Ola Electric Mobility continues to serve as a high-profile example of this downturn. As of February 18, 2026, the stock is trading near 28.00 INR, marking a sharp decline of approximately 63% from its IPO price of 76.00 INR. This represents an even steeper 82% crash from its all-time high of 157.40 INR reached shortly after its debut. The company recently reported a narrowed net loss of 487 crore INR for the December quarter, but a 55% year-on-year drop in revenue has kept the stock under intense selling pressure. The pain is not limited to large-cap tech. Data shows that over 115 NSE-listed IPOs from the 2025–26 cycle are currently trading below their initial issue prices. The erosion of wealth is particularly visible in the SME segment, where several listings have plunged by 60% to 70%. For instance, recent listings like Narmadesh Brass Industries and Yajur Fibres have seen their market values erode by 64% and 65% respectively from their issue prices. Market indicators reflect this broader fatigue. The Nifty SME Emerge Index is currently trading around the 13,112 level, hovering near its 52-week low of 12,614. This represents a significant retreat from its 52-week high of 15,662. In recent trading sessions, market breadth has remained weak, with declines often doubling the number of advancing stocks on the SME platform. Despite the current slump, the pipeline for 2026 remains historically large. Approximately 190 companies have either received regulatory approval or are awaiting clearance to raise over 2.5 lakh crore INR. However, many issuers are choosing to delay their launches as they wait for more favorable valuations and a stabilization of foreign institutional investor (FII) flows. The current trend underscores a shift toward quality and sustainability. Investors are increasingly moving away from speculative "hype" listings, prioritizing companies with clear paths to profitability and reasonable entry valuations. Until secondary markets find a firm floor, the primary market is expected to remain in a "wait-and-watch" phase. [Ola Electric market activity](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7EMGrzCD2s) This video provides an overview of the NSE market's performance and the cautious shift in the IPO landscape during the recent cycle. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
Cigarette Stocks Surge up to 12% Led by Godfrey Phillips and ITC
Shares of major Indian tobacco manufacturers surged on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, as investors reacted to aggressive pricing strategies designed to counter a new tax regime. The rally follows reports that cigarette makers have successfully implemented steep price hikes to absorb a significant increase in excise duties that took effect earlier this month. **ITC Ltd** saw its stock price rise nearly **2%** to reach **₹331**, extending a three-day winning streak that has netted over **5.5%** in gains. **Godfrey Phillips India** led the sector with a massive **12%** jump, trading near **₹2,315**, while **VST Industries** advanced by **3.3%** to **₹247.40**. The market's optimism stems from the sector's demonstrated pricing power. By raising retail prices by **15% to 40%** across various categories, manufacturers have effectively shifted the tax burden to consumers. This maneuver is expected to limit the impact on Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) to just **2%**, a sharp improvement from initial market fears of an **8% to 15%** decline. The new taxation framework, which launched on February 1, 2026, replaced the previous GST compensation cess with a structured excise duty ranging from **₹2,050 to ₹8,500** per **1,000 sticks**, depending on cigarette length. This is applied on top of a **40% GST** rate. Premium brands have seen the most significant adjustments. Prices for **84mm** cigarettes in the King Size Filter Tipped (KSFT) segment, such as Gold Flake and Classic, have been raised to approximately **₹24** per stick, up from **₹17**. In the more price-sensitive **64mm** and **69mm** segments, hikes have been kept minimal to protect volumes and discourage consumers from switching to illicit alternatives. Analysts note that while the price hikes protect immediate margins, the sector faces long-term challenges. Volume growth may moderate as consumers adjust to paying **₹22 to ₹55** more per pack of **10 sticks**. Additionally, the illicit trade—already estimated to account for **20% to 30%** of the market—remains a persistent threat as legal prices rise. For ITC, the cigarette business remains the primary profit engine, contributing roughly **42%** of revenue and over **75%** of its operating profit. The company's ability to maintain a **59.9%** margin in its cigarette segment during the previous quarter, despite high-cost leaf inventory, suggests underlying resilience as new pricing flows through the supply chain.
Indian Bond Yields Remain Unchanged Following Government Debt Switch Auction
Indian government bonds maintained a steady profile on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, as the market absorbed the impact of recent liquidity management and prepared for significant upcoming supply. Trading activity reflects a balancing act between domestic fiscal strategy and evolving global cues. The benchmark **10-year government bond yield** held firm near **6.67%**, hovering close to its lowest level in three weeks. This stability follows a notable decline from the **6.71%** to **6.73%** range seen earlier in the month. Market participants are closely watching the **6.64%** to **6.69%** corridor for the benchmark security. Redemption pressures for the upcoming 2026-27 fiscal year have been significantly mitigated by a successful debt switch operation. The government recently bought back **755.04 billion rupees** of securities maturing in the next financial year, issuing **694.36 billion rupees** of longer-dated **2040 bonds** in their place. A second major conversion is scheduled for February 23, involving an additional **25,000 crore rupees**. This move is designed to smoothen the redemption profile ahead of a heavy **5.47 trillion rupee** maturity pipeline. By extending maturities, the government aims to lower gross borrowing requirements for the next cycle. Inflation data remains a key anchor for market sentiment. The latest retail inflation print for January came in at **2.75%** under the newly revised **2024 base year** series. While this is an uptick from the previous month’s record lows, it remains well within the central bank's **2% to 6%** tolerance band. Liquidity remains in a comfortable surplus, averaging roughly **70,000 crore rupees** daily. This has kept short-term rates stable, with the one-year overnight index swap (OIS) rate settling near **5.50%** and the two-year rate at **5.64%**. Attention is now shifting toward Friday's major bond auction. Traders are also monitoring the **U.S. 10-year Treasury yield**, which has softened to approximately **4.05%** on expectations of global rate cuts. The combination of domestic debt management and stable inflation continues to support a neutral-to-positive outlook for Indian gilts.
Infosys Shares Decline Despite Increased Price Targets and $400 Billion AI Strategy
Infosys continues to navigate a complex structural shift as it pivots toward an AI-first future. During its February 2026 Investor AI Day, the company detailed an aggressive roadmap targeting an incremental AI services market estimated at **$300 billion to $400 billion** by 2030. Despite the long-term optimism, the market reaction has been sharp. As of February 18, 2026, Infosys shares traded near **₹1,365**, reflecting a **2.1%** intraday drop. This follows a broader period of volatility where the stock declined over **16%** since the start of February. The primary tension lies in the timing of financial impacts. Investors are currently weighing the immediate deflationary pressure on legacy revenues against the gradual ramp-up of AI-driven income. While AI is seen as a structural tailwind, it simultaneously automates traditional IT tasks, potentially squeezing traditional maintenance and development budgets. Management reported that AI-led services already contributed **5.5%** to total revenue in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. This equates to approximately **$275 million** in quarterly AI-related income. The company is currently engaged in over **4,600** AI projects, with **90%** of its top 200 clients already adopting these solutions. Central to this strategy is the **Topaz Fabric**, a suite of over **600** pre-built AI agents designed to modernize legacy systems. A recent strategic partnership with Anthropic has further bolstered this ecosystem, integrating Claude models to automate complex industry workflows in telecommunications and financial services. Operational data shows a tangible shift toward high-value automation. The company has generated over **28 million** lines of code using AI internally, a **12%** sequential increase. Large deal momentum also remains stable, with a total contract value (TCV) of **$1.8 billion** secured in the most recent quarter. Financial guidance for the full year 2026 has been revised upward to a range of **3% to 3.5%** revenue growth in constant currency. However, operating margins remain under scrutiny, currently holding at **18.4%** due to increased investments in AI infrastructure and a commitment to hiring **20,000** new graduates to build a specialized talent pipeline. While brokerages maintain long-term buy ratings with targets reaching up to **₹2,050**, the near-term outlook is characterized by a "trust deficit." The market is waiting for evidence that AI revenue can grow fast enough to offset the inevitable compression of the traditional IT outsourcing model.
IMF Reaffirms Market Forces Will Determine Yen Valuation Amid Policy Monitoring
The Japanese yen is navigating a period of heightened volatility as global markets and domestic policy shifts reshape its trajectory. Following a recent snap election and significant political movement, the currency has seen aggressive swings. After touching levels above 159 against the U.S. dollar earlier this month, the USD/JPY pair has recently stabilized near the 153.50 mark. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reaffirmed its support for Japan’s flexible exchange-rate regime. Mission chief Rahul Anand emphasized that there is no "correct" level for the yen, stating that value should be determined by market forces to help the economy adjust to global shifts. This stance aligns with the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) cautious withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Key Economic Indicators: - The BOJ maintained its policy rate at 0.75% in its most recent meeting, though a hike to 1.00% is widely anticipated by July 2026. - Inflation remains persistent, with Core CPI (excluding fresh food) projected to rise 2.7% for the current fiscal year before moderating toward 1.8% in 2026. - Japan’s GDP growth remains modest, eking out a 0.2% annualized expansion in the final quarter of 2025, with projections for 2026 hovering around 0.7% to 0.9%. - The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield recently touched a 27-year high of 2.38%, reflecting market pressure and shifting fiscal expectations. Market sentiment is currently driven by a "Buy Japan" narrative among some investors, spurred by the removal of political uncertainty following Prime Minister Takaichi’s election victory. This has led to a nearly 3% weekly jump in the yen, its largest in over a year, as long-term investors return to Japanese assets. However, the outlook remains complex. While rising nominal wages—expected to increase by over 5% in 2026—provide a tailwind for domestic consumption, the economy still lacks a strong singular growth driver. Real wages are only just beginning to turn positive as inflation shows signs of cooling due to government energy subsidies. The primary risk for the yen remains the divergence between Japanese and U.S. monetary policy. While the BOJ is gradually tightening, any delay in rate hikes or a shift toward more aggressive expansionary fiscal policy from the new administration could renew depreciation pressure on the currency. For now, the market is focusing on the March policy meeting and upcoming spring wage negotiations. These events will be critical in determining whether the yen can transition from a funding currency to a stable investment currency in the face of ongoing global uncertainty.
PSU Banks and Metals Remain Long-Term Attractive Amid Market Rally, According to Sudip Bandyopadhyay
Market Brief: PSU Banks & Metals Outlook **Banking Sector: The Valuation Gap** Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks continue to show strong momentum in early 2026. Despite a major rally over the past year, a significant valuation gap remains between state-owned lenders and their private sector peers. The Nifty PSU Bank index has outperformed the broader market recently, recording gains of over **2%** in single sessions this week. **Comparative Performance** State Bank of India (SBI) recently hit a market capitalization of over **₹11 lakh crore**, surpassing major IT firms. Its Price-to-Book (P/B) value has climbed to **2.41**, yet it still trades at a discount compared to private giants like ICICI Bank at **2.92**. Other PSU players like Union Bank and Bank of India have delivered year-to-date returns exceeding **15%**, driven by highest-ever quarterly profits and improved asset quality. **Credit Growth and Stability** Systemic credit growth for large PSU banks is projected at **13% to 15%** for the 2026 fiscal period. Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) for lead lenders have stabilized near **1.57%**, with Capital Adequacy Ratios remaining robust above **14%**. This fundamental shift suggests the re-rating phase for public lenders is still active. **Metals: Structural Upcycle** The metals sector is navigating a long-term structural upcycle supported by global infrastructure demand and supply-side shifts. While the Nifty Metal index saw a brief **1%** dip this week due to global cues, the long-term outlook remains positive. Domestic demand in India continues to scale even during periods of global price volatility. **Commodity Trends and Prices** Industrial metals like copper have seen sharp movements, with companies like Hindustan Copper gaining over **15.5%** year-to-date. In the global market, Aluminum prices have faced corrections, sliding from **$3,116** to approximately **$2,995** per tonne in February. These fluctuations are viewed as natural consolidation phases within a larger bullish trend. **Precious Metals Context** Gold and silver have reached historic levels in early 2026. Gold is currently trading near **₹1,53,500** per 10 grams on domestic exchanges, while silver recently touched **₹2,35,206** per kg. Global analysts maintain high price targets for the year, citing central bank diversification and geopolitical risks as primary drivers. **Investor Strategy** Market sentiment remains constructive for both sectors. Selective entry into PSU banks remains favored due to their earnings visibility and narrowing discount to private banks. In metals, the "buy on dips" approach is prevalent, as supply-demand imbalances are expected to sustain prices throughout the 2026 calendar year.
Infosys AI Strategy Signals Strength Amid Valuation Concerns, According to Sandip Agarwal
INDIAN IT SECTOR: THE AI ASCENSION The Indian IT sector is currently navigating a pivotal transition from legacy service models to an AI-first paradigm. Despite short-term market volatility that wiped nearly 5 trillion rupees off the sector's market capitalization earlier this year, the industry is showing significant resilience. Analysts now point toward an "undervaluation" phase, with the Nifty IT index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23x—notably below its 5-year median of 29.6x. Recent performance data signals a constructive recovery. Revenue growth for major large-cap firms has begun exceeding market expectations, with street estimates for the upcoming fiscal year projected between 5% and 8%. The industry is on a clear trajectory to hit the 300 billion dollar revenue milestone by FY2026. This growth is increasingly fueled by high-value, AI-driven deals rather than traditional maintenance contracts. Artificial Intelligence is no longer a peripheral experiment but a core revenue driver. Major players like TCS and HCL Tech have reported AI service revenues growing by nearly 20% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. TCS alone has reached an annualized AI revenue run rate of 1.8 billion dollars. The strategy has shifted from "effort-based" billable hours to "outcome-oriented" engagements, where human intelligence is augmented by agentic AI platforms. Workforce dynamics are undergoing a massive transformation to match this technical shift. India now ranks 3rd globally in AI vibrancy, with a talent pool reskilling at 2.5 times the global average. Large-cap firms have already trained hundreds of thousands of associates in advanced AI skills. While overall headcount growth remains measured, the demand for specialized roles in cloud, cybersecurity, and platform engineering has driven a 16% jump in IT job demand compared to the previous year. Valuations remain a focal point for investors as the sector pivots. While some stocks faced pressure due to concerns over AI cannibalizing traditional business, recent strategic partnerships—such as Infosys collaborating with Anthropic—have restored confidence. The emergence of Global Capability Centers (GCCs) as innovation hubs further strengthens the ecosystem, with their share of talent demand rising to approximately 27%. The sector’s robust business models are being structurally redesigned to reduce delivery bottlenecks. With the digital economy now contributing an estimated 12% to India's GDP, the IT industry is repositioning itself from a cost-effective outsourcing destination to a global leader in trusted, innovation-driven digital services. [Indian IT Sector Outlook](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzQ_5pcVxsw) This video provides a detailed breakdown of the recent Q3 earnings for major Indian IT firms, highlighting the specific revenue growth coming from AI and the stabilization of guidance for the upcoming fiscal year. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
Impact of Repo Rate Reductions on Market Borrowing Costs
The Indian bond market is currently experiencing a notable disconnect between central bank actions and market yields. Despite a cumulative **125 basis point** reduction in the repo rate during this easing cycle, benchmark yields remain stubbornly high. As of February 2026, the **10-year G-Sec yield** is hovering around **6.65% to 6.67%**, holding steady even as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintains a neutral stance. This creates a spread of approximately **140 to 150 basis points** over the current repo rate of **5.25%**, a gap rarely seen during easing phases. Structural liquidity tightness within the banking system is the primary driver of this trend. While the RBI has kept rates on hold in its latest February meeting to assess the impact of previous cuts, banks are struggling with a widening credit-to-deposit gap. Credit growth is currently outpacing deposit mobilization by roughly **200 to 300 basis points**, pushing the system-wide credit-to-deposit ratio to a historic high of **81.75%**. Domestic banks, the traditional backbone of the G-Sec market, are facing severe margin pressures. Net Interest Margins (NIMs) have compressed by **10 to 15 basis points** for many private lenders as the cost of funds rises. Consequently, banks are prioritizing high-yield lending over government securities, leading to thinner demand for sovereign paper. To address these challenges, the RBI has deployed proactive liquidity measures. Since December, the central bank has conducted Open Market Operation (OMO) purchases totaling **₹3.5 lakh crore** and long-term forex swaps of **$15.1 billion**. These interventions aim to ensure that surplus liquidity, which has recently averaged **₹70,000 crore** per day, remains durable enough to support policy transmission. Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) activity remains a critical variable. While inclusion in global bond indices has provided a structural tailwind, capital flows have been volatile. A net outflow of **$3.9 billion** was recorded as of late 2025, largely due to global shifts toward AI-centric markets in the US and East Asia. However, recent regulatory reforms—including the removal of the **₹2.5 lakh crore** cap under the Voluntary Retention Route (VRR)—are expected to stabilize debt inflows. The outlook for the remainder of the year suggests a gradual softening. Analysts project the 10-year yield could ease toward **6.54%** over the next **12 months** if headline inflation stays near the projected **2.1%** for the fiscal year. For now, the market remains in a "wait and watch" mode, balancing the supply of new government debt against the central bank's efforts to keep the financial system sufficiently oiled. [Indian Government Bond Market Outlook](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gyaY5WdLfY) This video provides additional context on recent Union Budget reforms and their direct impact on attracting global investors to the Indian bond market. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
US Market Outlook: Structural Challenges to Reducing Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Market Brief: Federal Reserve Leadership & Policy Shift The nomination of **Kevin Warsh** to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in **May 2026** has introduced a new "Warsh Turbulence" into financial markets. While historically viewed as an inflation hawk, Warsh’s recent stance suggests a dual-track strategy: aggressive reduction of the Fed's balance sheet alongside a push for deeper interest rate cuts. Balance Sheet Reality Check The Federal Reserve’s total assets currently stand at approximately **$6.62 trillion** as of mid-February 2026. This represents a decline from **$6.81 trillion** a year ago, but remains significantly "bloated" compared to pre-pandemic levels. Warsh has publicly advocated for a smaller central bank footprint, arguing that the current scale crowds out private sector credit and distorts market signals. * **Treasury Holdings:** **$4.29 trillion** * **Mortgage-Backed Securities:** **$2.02 trillion** * **Bank Reserve Balances:** **$2.94 trillion** The Reserve Constraint Shrinking the balance sheet to Warsh’s ideal level faces structural headwinds. The U.S. banking system currently operates under an "ample reserves" regime. Financial institutions require substantial liquidity to meet regulatory standards and manage daily payment flows. If reserves fall too low—approaching the **$2.5 trillion** "scarcity" threshold—volatility in the repo and overnight funding markets typically spikes. This was evidenced in late 2025 when the FOMC briefly halted quantitative tightening (QT) due to reserve concerns. Divergent Policy Signals Warsh’s proposal to "run the printing press a little quieter" while lowering short-term rates creates a complex outlook for the yield curve. Analysts anticipate a "steeper" curve, where short-term rates drop to support growth, but long-term Treasury yields face upward pressure as the Fed ceases to be a primary buyer. The market is currently pricing in at least **two 0.25% rate cuts** in the second half of 2026, bringing the federal funds target down from its current **3.50–3.75%** range. Market Reaction and Volatility Following the nomination, markets responded with immediate adjustments. Gold and silver prices retreated from all-time highs, dropping **9%** and **26%** respectively, as the U.S. Dollar recovered from four-year lows. The transition period remains sensitive. Senatorial hurdles and ongoing investigations into central bank operations could delay the confirmation process, potentially leaving a leadership vacuum as Powell’s term nears its end. Investors are closely watching for signs of "mission creep" and the balance between political pressure for lower rates and the Fed's independent mandate for price stability.
Outlook on FMCG and IT Sectors: Sunil Subramaniam
Market Brief: India Strategic Outlook 2026 The Indian market is navigating a complex transition as the economy moves from essential-heavy spending toward a diversified, discretionary consumption model. While traditional segments face structural shifts, the technology and manufacturing sectors are absorbing record levels of capital. Consumer Consumption and Rural Dynamics Consumer staples have experienced a period of relative lag, influenced by the implementation of **GST 2.0**. This major reform has reduced taxes on essentials to a **5%** bracket while hiking luxury and "sin" goods to **40%**. Recent data indicates a structural pivot: food’s weight in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped from **46%** to approximately **37%**. Households are increasingly reallocating budgets toward services, digital media, and premium lifestyle products. Rural demand remains the primary swing factor. With nearly **45%** of farmers dependent on rain, the outlook for 2026 hinges on a favorable monsoon. Early forecasts of normal rainfall are expected to bolster rural incomes, which have recently outpaced urban growth rates in several quarters. Technology and the AI Valuation Reset The technology sector is at a critical entry point. The Nifty IT index recently weathered an **8.2%** weekly decline—its sharpest in ten months—wiping out **$50 billion** in market capitalization as investors priced in disruption risks. Despite this volatility, firms are aggressively pivoting. IT spending in India is projected to reach **$176.3 billion** in 2026, a **10.6%** increase over the previous year. * **Software spending** is expected to rise **17.6%** to **$24.7 billion**. * **Data center investments** are leading growth at a **20.5%** annual rate. * Major players have committed over **$200 billion** to the AI value chain over the next two years. Strategic partnerships, such as recent collaborations between Indian IT majors and global AI labs, are shifting the focus from labor arbitrage to "agentic AI" and specialized industry solutions. Manufacturing and Foreign Investment Manufacturing growth is accelerating through a "China-plus-one" strategy and deep-tech partnerships. FDI inflows reached **$50.36 billion** in the first half of the current fiscal year, a **16%** year-on-year increase. Global alliances are providing the necessary scale: * The **EFTA trade pact** has secured a **$100 billion** investment commitment over 15 years. * The **Production Linked Incentive (PLI)** for electronics was recently doubled in the 2026 Budget. * Semiconductor and hardware manufacturing are seeing a surge in capital, supported by a **₹40,000 crore** electronic component scheme. Success in this sector remains tied to effective technology transfer and the expansion of Global Capability Centers (GCCs), which are evolving from back-office hubs into core strategic partners for international parent companies.