Bullish News
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Netweb Technologies Shares Rise 17% Over Three Sessions Following NVIDIA-Powered AI Supercomputer Launch
Netweb Technologies has witnessed a significant surge in market activity, with its share price jumping more than 17% over the last three trading sessions. On Thursday, February 19, 2026, the stock reached an intraday high of 3,605.00 INR on the BSE, extending a rally fueled by a major expansion of its high-performance computing portfolio. The momentum follows the unveiling of the 'Make in India' Tyrone Camarero GB200 AI Supercomputer and the compact Tyrone Camarero Spark. Developed in collaboration with NVIDIA, these systems utilize the advanced Grace Blackwell architecture. The Tyrone Camarero Spark is specifically positioned as one of the world's smallest AI supercomputers, delivering 1 petaflop of performance in a desktop form factor. Market interest is heavily driven by the company's strategic alignment with India's growing demand for sovereign AI infrastructure. The new systems are designed to handle complex generative AI workloads, including training models with up to 70 billion parameters on-premises. This capability addresses a critical need for local, secure, and high-speed data processing without reliance on external cloud environments. Financially, Netweb is demonstrating rapid scaling. In the quarter ending December 2025, revenue surged 141% year-on-year to 805 crore INR. Profit after tax also saw a massive jump of 146.7%, reaching 73.3 crore INR. AI systems have become the primary growth engine for the firm, contributing approximately 64% of total revenue in the latest quarter. The company's order book remains robust, currently valued at over 2,250 crore INR when combining organic and strategic projects. Analysts highlight that Netweb’s zero net-debt status and a healthy cash reserve of approximately 190 crore INR provide a stable foundation for further technological investment. Wider market trends indicate that the Indian supercomputer sector is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 13.7% through 2030. Netweb's early adoption of liquid-cooled rack-scale systems and Blackwell GPUs places it at the forefront of this expansion, particularly as enterprises and government bodies accelerate their transition to high-density AI factories. The stock has delivered returns exceeding 140% over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming broader indices. With the official commencement of shipments for its new AI systems, investors are focusing on the company’s ability to execute its current deal pipeline while maintaining its leadership in the domestic manufacturing of high-end compute hardware.
Vinit Bolinjkar Sees Nifty Reaching 27,000 With Bullish Outlook on Metals, Paytm, and Cigarette Stocks
Market benchmarks are displaying resilient momentum as the Nifty 50 sustains its position above the **25,800** mark. Despite early volatility, the index closed at **25,819** recently, marking a third consecutive session of gains. Analysts like Vinit Bolinjkar of Ventura Securities remain optimistic, maintaining a structural target of **27,000**. This outlook is supported by a healthy Put-Call Ratio of **1.15** and a significant cooling of the India VIX, which dropped over **3%** to settle near **12.22**. The metals sector is emerging as a primary growth engine. Tata Steel recently achieved a milestone, hitting an all-time high of **₹211.35**. The company’s domestic revenue grew **9%** year-on-year, and with a market capitalization exceeding **₹2,60,000 crores**, it remains a top pick. Similarly, Hindustan Zinc is trading near **₹589**, supported by a robust **34%** net profit margin and the strategic development of new zinc-ion battery prototypes. Bolinjkar views the sector as a "hard currency" play, benefiting from rising commodity demand and protective trade measures. Fintech sentiment has shifted positively, particularly for Paytm. The stock is currently trading around **₹1,199**, gaining over **60%** in the past year. Market optimism is fueled by the company turning EBITDA-positive and a potential valuation re-rating ahead of the PhonePe IPO. While Macquarie has noted a significant valuation gap, Bolinjkar remains a long-term bull with an ambitious price target of **₹1,800 to ₹2,000**, citing disciplined cost management and consistent revenue growth. The pharmaceutical sector presents a more complex landscape. While the government has introduced the **2026 NDCT Amendments** to fast-track drug approvals and cut development timelines, individual stocks face headwinds. Regulatory scrutiny from the US FDA remains a primary concern for export-heavy firms like Aurobindo Pharma. Investors are advised to be selective, focusing on companies that leverage AI for quality compliance to navigate these strict global standards. Overall, the market strategy for **2026** emphasizes quality and valuation discipline. While broader indices aim for new peaks, the divergence between high-performing metals and cautious pharma suggests a "stock-picker's market." Consumption-led businesses and large-cap leaders continue to be the preferred vehicles for investors looking to capitalize on India's evolving trade dynamics and earnings recovery. [Nifty 27,000 target and market analysis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmUeWMxjHf0) This video provides an in-depth look at Vinit Bolinjkar's specific market strategies and his reasoning behind the ambitious Nifty 27,000 target. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
AI Sector Volatility and Investment Opportunities for Institutional and Retail Investors
Market Outlook: Structural Shifts in Indian Equities The Indian technology sector is navigating a period of significant volatility as structural concerns over Artificial Intelligence disruption take center stage. The **Nifty IT Index** has faced a correction of approximately **7.5% year-to-date**, with some monthly sell-offs reaching as high as **15%**. Investors are currently reassessing traditional outsourcing models following the introduction of advanced automation tools. **Wipro** recently hit a 52-week low of **209.15**, marking a **30.91%** decline over the past year. **TCS** has also seen its market valuation fluctuate, trading near **2,755** as it pivots toward AI infrastructure collaborations to protect its market share. Banking and Financial Services: The Growth Engine While technology faces headwinds, the domestic financial sector is demonstrating robust resilience. Total bank credit in India recently crossed a historic milestone of **200 lakh crore**, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of approximately **12%**. The banking sector is benefiting from improved asset quality and a stable credit environment. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) are projected to see assets under management grow by **15% to 17%** in the current fiscal year. Retail and MSME lending remain primary drivers, with vehicle finance and affordable housing showing particularly high momentum. Infrastructure and Capital Goods Momentum Government policy continues to provide a massive tailwind for the capital goods and infrastructure segments. The **Union Budget 2026** has earmarked a record **12.2 lakh crore** for public capital expenditure, representing a **9%** increase over the previous year. This sustained spending is fueling the industrial cycle, with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for capital goods showing an **8.1%** expansion. These sectors offer high earnings visibility as the "Make in India" initiative drives domestic manufacturing capacity in power equipment, construction, and electronics. Consumption and Auto Sector Recovery Domestic consumption is showing signs of a steady recovery, particularly in rural markets. The automobile industry reported a strong start to 2026, with retail vehicle sales rising **17.6%** year-on-year to reach **2.72 million units** in January. Passenger vehicle volumes are expected to grow between **6% and 8%** this year. This growth is supported by rural income stability and a clear shift in consumer preference toward SUVs and electric vehicles. Tax reforms and easier financing conditions are further stimulating demand across the broader consumption basket. Strategic Sectoral Divergence The current market narrative is defined by a clear divergence. While the IT sector grapples with a valuation reset and AI-driven uncertainty, domestic-facing sectors—Financials, Capital Goods, and Autos—are emerging as preferred allocations. These segments are currently backed by strong internal demand, massive government outlays, and a healthy credit ecosystem.
FTSE Russell Proposes Index Rule Changes Amid Surge in US IPO Activity
The US IPO market is entering a transformative period with 2026 projected to be one of the busiest listing years in recent history. Major industry players like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are expected to debut, driving index providers to overhaul long-standing rules for inclusion. FTSE Russell has officially proposed a new fast-entry mechanism to accommodate these massive newcomers. Under current rules, initial public offerings are typically added only during quarterly reviews and must meet strict criteria, including a minimum **5%** public float and **5%** public voting rights. The new proposal seeks to relax these thresholds and speed up the timeline. This shift is a direct response to the unique structures of high-valuation firms like SpaceX, which is currently valued at approximately **$1.5 trillion**. A listing of this scale could involve raising up to **$50 billion**, potentially making it the largest IPO in history and surpassing Saudi Aramco's **$29.4 billion** record. Other giants are also moving toward the public stage. OpenAI is reportedly eyeing a late 2026 debut with a valuation near **$500 billion**, while Anthropic is positioned with a valuation of roughly **$374 billion**. These figures dwarf past milestones; for context, OpenAI’s private valuation is more than double the **$236 billion** enterprise value Alibaba held at the time of its 2014 debut. Index providers are racing to ensure these companies are reflected in benchmarks quickly to maintain market accuracy. Nasdaq recently proposed its own fast-entry rule that would allow large companies to join its flagship index after just **15** trading days. FTSE Russell is currently seeking market feedback on its similar proposals through mid-March. The 2025 lead-up has already shown strong momentum. Last year, **342** IPOs raised over **$75 billion**, an **80%** increase in proceeds compared to the prior year. Investors are showing a high appetite for scale, with venture-backed tech IPOs in 2025 delivering average returns of **30%** since pricing. As interest rates continue a measured decline and inflation eases, the backlog of over **800** unicorns is expected to flood the market. The upcoming cycle will likely see a concentration of capital in AI infrastructure and aerospace, fundamentally reshaping the weightings of major global indices.
India's $250 Billion IT Industry Faces Potential Structural Disruption
Market Brief: Indian IT Sector Transformation 2026 The Indian Information Technology sector is navigating a volatile period as the "AI Tsunami" shifts from theoretical risk to a visible market force. Recent weeks have seen the **Nifty IT index decline by approximately 13%**, reflecting a pivot in investor sentiment from AI as a productivity tool to AI as a structural threat to the traditional billing model. The market capitalization of industry leaders has faced significant pressure. **Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)** saw its value slip below the **₹10 lakh crore** mark for the first time since 2020, with the stock falling nearly **17%** between January 1 and mid-February 2026. This sell-off allowed the banking sector to overtake IT in benchmark weightage, with financial stocks now commanding **27.6%** of the Nifty 50 compared to IT’s **8.7%**. The Displacement Narrative The primary driver of recent volatility is the fear of "revenue deflation." As advanced AI agents automate complex tasks, the traditional man-hour billing model faces a potential collapse. If a project previously requiring **100 billable hours** can now be completed in **5 hours** via automation, the immediate revenue per contract for firms like Infosys and Wipro could shrink. Concerns over terminal value are intensifying as software developers are viewed increasingly as the "invisible architects" whose standard coding tasks are being commoditized by AI. This has led to aggressive profit booking, particularly from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who turned net sellers earlier this month. The Modernization Opportunity Despite the "Kodak moment" warnings, data suggests a parallel growth engine is forming. Enterprise spending in India is projected to reach **$176.3 billion in 2026**, a **10.6% increase** from the previous year. Strategic shifts are evident in recent deal wins, where AI-centric contracts now account for approximately **74%** of all new signings across major firms. Sector-specific demand is driving high-value growth in specialized segments: * **Data Center Systems**: Projected to grow **20.5%** in 2026. * **Software Spending**: Estimated to rise **17.6%** to reach **$24.7 billion**. * **IT Services**: Forecast to accelerate by **11.1%**, fueled by application modernization and "Human + Agent" hybrid models. Sector Outlook The industry is currently at an inflection point, moving from "effort-based" to "outcome-based" engagements. While legacy maintenance revenue is under threat, the demand for AI infrastructure, sovereign cloud, and cybersecurity is creating a "base" for the next digital economy. Analysts remain divided: some view the current **23.2 P/E ratio** of the Nifty IT index as a reflection of stagnation, while others see a "sharp recovery" poised for late 2026. The focus has moved to Global Capability Centers (GCCs) and the development of indigenous AI models as the new pillars for sustaining India’s target of **$750–850 billion** in annual tech revenue by 2035.
UBS Increases US Tech Bond Issuance Forecast Amid Rising AI Investment
UBS has significantly upgraded its 2026 forecast for US investment-grade technology bond issuance, raising the target to $360 billion from a previous $300 billion. This revision reflects a massive surge in capital expenditure by industry "hyperscalers" as they race to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure and data center capacity. The primary drivers of this borrowing binge are megacap firms including Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet. These companies have recently signaled a collective capital expenditure package approaching $770 billion for 2026—a 23% increase over earlier estimates. Amazon alone has projected a monumental $200 billion spend, while Alphabet recently demonstrated the sector's global reach by tapping international markets for $31.51 billion in sterling and Swiss franc-denominated deals. Technology debt is now expected to account for roughly one-fifth of the total $1.8 trillion US investment-grade market for the year. This shift toward debt financing became more pronounced in late 2025 as firms moved away from purely cash-funded expansion to leverage the liquid public bond markets for large-scale AI projects. In contrast to the optimism in high-grade debt, UBS has trimmed its outlook for US leveraged loans, cutting the forecast to $360 billion from $450 billion. This adjustment stems from concerns that AI-driven disruption is currently underpriced in riskier credit segments. Analysts warn that advanced AI models could threaten traditional business models, potentially leading to wider spreads and higher refinancing costs for leveraged borrowers. This creates a growing divergence in the credit markets: while investment-grade tech issuance hits record highs, the leveraged loan and private credit spaces face increased scrutiny and potential volatility as investors reassess long-term returns on AI spending.
Gold and Silver Prices Steady Amid US–Iran Tensions and Fed Rate Uncertainty
Precise movements in the bullion market on February 19, 2026, reflect a complex tug-of-war between easing geopolitical risks and a split outlook on US monetary policy. Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for April delivery are trading with a slight downward bias, hovering near **₹1,54,350 per 10 grams**. This follows a period of consolidation after the metal retreated from its February peak of **₹1,60,730**. In the international spot market, gold is currently testing the **$4,930** per ounce level. Silver is experiencing more intense volatility, with retail prices in major hubs like Delhi and Mumbai holding at **₹2,55,000 per kg**. This represents a sharp correction of approximately **27%** from the **₹3,50,000** peak seen earlier this month. On the MCX, silver futures are under pressure, trading near **₹2,42,520 per kg**, as the market reacts to a significant demand-supply mismatch and heavy profit-booking. A primary driver for the current price softening is the progress in diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. Recent negotiations in Geneva have led to a preliminary understanding of "guiding principles" regarding nuclear disputes. This potential de-escalation has reduced the immediate need for safe-haven assets, which typically surge during times of active conflict. Simultaneously, the US Federal Reserve remains a source of uncertainty. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting reveal a divided committee. While some officials favor rate cuts later in 2026 to support the labor market, others are signaling a "higher-for-longer" approach to ensure inflation reaches the **2%** target. This division has bolstered the US Dollar Index to approximately **97.25**, making gold more expensive for global buyers. Despite the short-term pullback, domestic demand remains structurally sound. Gold imports into India rose in January, and ETF holdings have shown resilience, edging higher even as prices dipped. Analysts suggest that the current consolidation near **₹1,53,000** for gold and **₹2,40,000** for silver may serve as a floor for future movement. Technical indicators highlight that the gold-silver ratio has expanded to historic highs above **95:1**. This suggests that silver is currently undervalued relative to gold, though momentum remains weak. Traders are advised to monitor the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for clearer direction on the next phase of the market cycle.
Indian Financial Markets Closed for Public Holiday
Indian currency and debt markets remain closed today, Thursday, February 19, 2026, in observance of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti. While the equity markets are open for trading, clearing and settlement activities are paused due to the bank holiday. Full operations across all financial segments, including debt and forex settlements, will resume on Friday, February 20. **Currency Market Stability** The Indian rupee enters the holiday break following a period of steady performance. On Wednesday, the currency hovered near the **90.68** level against the U.S. dollar. Market sentiment has been supported by a recent trade agreement between India and the United States, which helped the rupee recover from previous lows of **92.00**. Despite global volatility, the currency has remained resilient, trading within a narrow range as the central bank avoids aggressive intervention. **Debt and Bond Yields** The benchmark 10-year government bond yield ended Wednesday's session slightly higher at **6.68%**, up approximately **3 basis points** from the previous day. Yields have remained elevated despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) implementing a cumulative **125 basis point** reduction in the repo rate over the past year. This disconnect is largely attributed to structural liquidity tightness within the banking system and a shift by banks toward credit deployment rather than government securities. **Policy and Outlook** The RBI maintained the repo rate at **5.25%** during its February 2026 meeting. The central bank has shifted to a **neutral stance**, providing flexibility as it monitors inflation, which recently hit a low of **1.3%**. To manage market liquidity, the RBI conducted nearly **4 trillion** in Open Market Operation (OMO) purchases between late 2025 and early 2026. Market participants do not anticipate immediate further measures to cool yields, as the government focuses on debt-switch programs to manage upcoming redemptions. The 10-year yield is expected to move sideways in the near term, as investors await further cues from global markets and domestic liquidity conditions once trading resumes.
Top-Performing Indian Small-Cap Fund Increases Allocation to Internet Value Stocks
Market Brief: Bandhan Small Cap Fund Strategy The **Bandhan Small Cap Fund** continues to pursue a contrarian investment path, focusing on "beaten-down" sectors despite a cooling phase in the broader small-cap universe. As of **February 18, 2026**, the fund’s Net Asset Value (NAV) stands at **46.12**, managing a significant asset base of **19,267 Crores**. While the Nifty Smallcap index has faced a **3%** decline year-to-date in **2026**, the fund remains a category leader with a **3-year CAGR of 30.18%** and a **5-year CAGR of 23.2%**. High-Conviction Tech Recovery The fund has aggressively increased its exposure to the Indian internet space, specifically targeting firms that faced heavy regulatory and valuation corrections in previous cycles. **Paytm (One 97 Communications)** and **Info Edge** are core components of this "value-hunting" strategy. Analysts note that approximately **61%** of market experts currently maintain a **Buy** rating on Paytm as it stabilizes. Info Edge, a leader in digital classifieds, remains a top holding as the fund manager bets on a long-term turnaround in recruitment and real estate tech. Sectoral Shifts: Real Estate & Textiles Portfolio allocation has shifted toward labor-intensive and infrastructure-linked sectors. The fund is currently **overweight on Financial Services (21.05%)** and **Real Estate (9.06%)**. * **Real Estate:** The **2026-27 Union Budget** increased infrastructure outlay to **12.2 lakh crore**, directly benefiting holdings like **Sobha Ltd** (3.64% of the portfolio) and **Prestige Estates**. * **Textiles:** The fund has been building positions in **Arvind Ltd** and **Nitin Spinners**. This sector is supported by a new **10,000 crore SME Growth Fund** aimed at scaling manufacturing exports. Resilience Amid Volatility The small-cap segment is currently in a "reset phase," with nearly **50% of stocks** in this category trading roughly **40% below** their all-time highs. This widespread correction has created an entry point for the fund’s "Growth at Reasonable Price" (GARP) framework. Despite a short-term dip of **1.89%** over the last year, the fund has maintained a **Sharpe ratio greater than 1**, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns compared to its peers. The current strategy prioritizes businesses with healthy cash flows and high scalability, avoiding overleveraged firms. Key Indicators * **Latest NAV (Regular):** 46.12 * **Fund AUM:** 19,267 Crores * **Expense Ratio:** 1.62% * **Top Sector:** Financial Services (21.05%) * **3-Year Annualized Return:** 30.18% The manager remains benchmark-agnostic, trimming holdings in metals and commodities while shifting capital into renewables and consumer discretionary themes to capture the next growth cycle.
Indian Benchmarks Trade Higher Led by Gains in IT Stocks
Market Brief: Indian Equities Indian equity benchmarks, Nifty and Sensex, opened higher on **Thursday, February 19, 2026**, marking their fourth consecutive session of gains. This winning streak follows a period of consolidation, with the indices now testing critical psychological resistance levels. Index Performance The **BSE Sensex** rose over **146 points** at the opening bell, trading near the **83,880** level. Simultaneously, the **NSE Nifty 50** gained momentum to trade above **25,839**, sustaining its position above key moving averages. Sectoral Movers Information Technology (IT) and Metals emerged as the primary engines of growth. The **Nifty IT index** rallied **1.5%**, led by gains in heavyweights like **HCLTech**, **Infosys**, and **Tech Mahindra**. The **Metal sector** followed with a **0.5%** rise, supported by **Tata Steel** and **Hindustan Copper**. Conversely, the **Private Bank index** saw a marginal dip of **0.2%**, acting as a slight drag on the broader market surge. Key Market Data Institutional activity remains a pivotal driver for the current rally. **Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs)** were net buyers on the previous session, purchasing shares worth **₹1,154 crore**, while **Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)** added **₹440 crore** to the tally. The volatility gauge, **India VIX**, has cooled to approximately **12.22**, reflecting a reduction in market nervousness and a shift toward a "buy-on-dip" sentiment among traders. Technical Outlook Market analysts identify **25,700** as a robust support zone for the Nifty. On the upside, **26,000** remains the immediate hurdle. A decisive breach above this resistance could potentially trigger a fresh acceleration toward the **26,300** mark. Global cues provided a supportive backdrop, with **GIFT Nifty** indicating a positive start and major Asian indices, including Japan's **Nikkei**, trading significantly higher. Investors are also monitoring domestic inflation forecasts, with current estimates placing fiscal **2026 CPI at 2.5%**.
Aurobindo Pharma Leads Top 4 F&O Stocks in Open Interest Growth
Energy Market Brief | February 19, 2026 The global energy landscape is currently defined by a tug-of-war between heightened geopolitical risk and a persistent underlying supply surplus. While immediate supply shocks have provided technical support for prices, long-term indicators suggest a cooling trend as production capacity remains robust across both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ nations. Crude Oil Performance Benchmark prices have experienced significant volatility throughout early **2026**. Brent crude is currently trading around **$70** per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is positioned near **$63**. Recent price action was driven by a **$10** per barrel surge in January, sparked by escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and severe winter weather that disrupted North American operations. However, prices have retreated from those highs as markets digest a projected global surplus of approximately **3.2 million** barrels per day for the remainder of the year. Supply and Production Dynamics World oil supply is forecast to rise by **2.4 million** barrels per day in **2026**, reaching a total of **108.6 million** barrels per day. This growth is roughly split between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers. * **OPEC+ Strategy:** Member nations recently reaffirmed a pause in production increments through March **2026** to manage seasonal demand shifts. The group maintains a significant effective spare capacity of over **4 million** barrels per day. * **Non-OPEC Growth:** Increased output from the "Americas quintet"—the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina—continues to provide a buffer against potential disruptions. * **Inventory Builds:** Global inventories rose by **37 million** barrels in December, with Chinese crude stocks and "oil on water" accounting for a substantial portion of the increase. Natural Gas and LNG Expansion Natural gas is emerging as a central pillar of energy infrastructure growth this year. The industry is witnessing the most active period for gas-fired generation development in over a decade. North American LNG export capacity is entering a major growth phase, on track to climb toward **30 billion** cubic feet per day by **2027**. This expansion is solidifying the U.S. Gulf Coast as the global anchor of gas supply, reshuffling global trade flows as European and Asian demand remains sustained. Key Risks and Indicators Geopolitical uncertainty remains the primary "war premium" driver. Analysts estimate that a total removal of Iranian crude from the market—roughly **3.3 million** barrels per day—could push Brent toward **$91** by late **2026**. Economic indicators in the U.S. show unexpected resilience, with capital goods orders rising **0.6%** in December and housing starts hitting a five-month high. This domestic strength is supporting energy demand even as central banks shift toward more accommodative monetary policies. Outlook for 2026 The consensus forecast points to a gradual decline in oil prices as production continues to outpace demand. The EIA projects Brent crude will average **$58** per barrel across **2026**. Investment is increasingly focused on operational efficiency and "behind-the-meter" projects. Energy companies are prioritizing capital discipline and shareholder returns, with large-cap firms expected to return up to **78%** of free cash flow to investors this year.
USD/JPY Volatility and Fed Rate Outlook Drive Currency Intervention Speculation
**MARKET BRIEF: DOLLAR-YEN VOLATILITY AND INTERVENTION SPECULATION** The US Federal Reserve recently confirmed it conducted rare market inquiries into the dollar-yen exchange rate. This move, known as a "rate check," was executed at the direct request of the US Treasury Department. Such actions are highly uncommon and typically interpreted by market participants as a precursor to physical currency intervention. The New York Fed’s trading desk sought these quotes from dealers in late January 2026, sparking immediate speculation of coordinated action between Washington and Tokyo to stabilize the yen. **Current Exchange Rate Dynamics** As of February 19, 2026, the USD/JPY pair is trading near **155.18**. This follows a period of intense volatility where the pair swung between **153.00** and **159.00** over the last thirty days. The yen recorded a massive surge last week, gaining nearly **3%** against the dollar. This was the currency’s strongest weekly performance in approximately **15** months. The appreciation was fueled by the "rate check" news and a decisive election victory for the current Japanese administration, which investors believe provides the political mandate for further monetary tightening. **Policy Divergence and Economic Data** Despite the brief yen rally, the currency remains under pressure due to the widening interest rate gap between the US and Japan. The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed a hawkish stance, with policymakers emphasizing that interest rate cuts are not imminent while inflation remains above target. In Japan, the economic backdrop is mixed. Recent data showed a massive **16.8%** year-on-year surge in Japanese exports for January 2026. However, preliminary GDP figures indicated the economy grew at a meager **0.1%** in the final quarter of last year, missing the **0.4%** market consensus. **Intervention Outlook** US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly pushed back against claims of active market intervention. However, the Federal Reserve’s confirmation that it acted as a fiscal agent for the Treasury has kept traders on high alert. Market analysts note that coordinated intervention between the US and Japan has not occurred in roughly **15** years. While no large-scale dollar sales have been confirmed, the constructive ambiguity of the "rate check" has effectively placed a psychological floor under the yen near the **159.00** level. Investors are now focused on upcoming US PCE inflation figures and the Bank of Japan’s March meeting. Markets currently assign a **20%** probability to a Japanese rate hike in March, though many economists expect the central bank to wait until mid-year. The yen's path forward remains tethered to US Treasury yields. The US 10-year yield is hovering near **4.08%**, while the Japanese 10-year yield remains stable above **2.21%**. This yield differential continues to be the primary driver for USD/JPY price action in the near term.
Dr. Reddy’s Acquires HRT Drug Trademarks in India for $32 Million
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDDY) has moved into the spotlight following its strategic entry into the Indian Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) market. On February 18, 2026, the pharmaceutical major finalized a definitive agreement to acquire the India trademarks for specialty brands Progynova and Cyclo-Progynova from the UK-based Mercury Pharma Group for USD 32.15 million. The deal highlights Dr. Reddy's aggressive expansion within the gynecology segment. Progynova, an estradiol valerate therapy, is currently ranked as the number one brand in the Indian estradiol market, recording annual sales of approximately INR 100 crore as of December 2025. Cyclo-Progynova complements this by offering a combined therapy for estrogen deficiency symptoms. This acquisition arrives as the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) shows resilient growth. The sector kicked off 2026 with a 10.2% value increase in January, driven largely by chronic and specialty therapies. While the broader market is projected to grow between 7.8% and 8.1% throughout 2026, lifestyle-driven segments such as hormonal treatments and oncology are expected to outpace general growth. Dr. Reddy's recent financial performance underscores this growth potential despite global headwinds. For the quarter ending December 2025, the company reported consolidated revenue of INR 8,727 crore, a 4.4% year-on-year increase. While higher R&D investments and operating costs led to a 15.3% dip in net profit to INR 1,190 crore, the India business remained a standout performer, growing by 19% to reach INR 1,603 crore. Market reaction to the stock has been mixed but generally positive regarding long-term domestic strategy. As of February 19, 2026, Dr. Reddy's shares are trading near INR 1,276.60, with various brokerages maintaining "Buy" ratings and price targets ranging up to INR 1,737. The stock has delivered a return of over 10% in the past month alone. Investors are closely monitoring the company's shift toward high-value specialty products. With the HRT market in India gaining momentum due to increased awareness and an aging population, the integration of these newly acquired brands is expected to provide a steady revenue stream and solidify the firm's position as a leader in women's healthcare.
Cochin Shipyard Secures $360 Million LNG Vessel Contract from CMA CGM Group
Cochin Shipyard has reached a major milestone in the global maritime market, securing a landmark contract worth approximately $360 million (₹3,267 crore) with France-based logistics giant CMA CGM Group. This agreement covers the construction of six 1,700 TEU container vessels powered by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), signaling a strategic shift for the French firm, which has historically relied on Chinese and South Korean yards. The deal effectively pushes Cochin Shipyard’s unexecuted order book to a record ₹23,000 crore, providing immense revenue visibility for the next several years. Engineering and design will be handled in collaboration with Korea Maritime Consultants (KOMAC). The first vessel is scheduled for delivery by February 2029, with a steady rollout of two vessels per year thereafter. Market sentiment remains highly reactive to these developments. On February 17, 2026, the company’s stock surged over 7% to an intraday high of ₹1,575 following news of this contract and the company being declared the lowest bidder (L1) for a separate ₹5,000 crore Indian Navy project. As of mid-February 2026, the stock is trading near the ₹1,470–₹1,500 range, supported by a market capitalization of over ₹40,000 crore. Financial performance for the quarter ending December 2025 showed a mix of scale and pressure. Revenue from operations grew by 17.7% year-on-year to reach ₹1,350 crore. However, consolidated net profit for the quarter dipped by 18.3% to ₹144.67 crore, primarily due to higher input costs and operational expenses. Despite this margin compression, the board declared a second interim dividend of ₹3.50 per share, demonstrating confidence in its cash flow. Beyond traditional shipbuilding, the company is aggressively pivoting toward green technology and global expansion. It recently approved a 23% stake acquisition in the Netherlands-based ship design firm Conoship International to penetrate the European market. Additionally, a new joint venture with HBL Engineering has been established to develop indigenous electric mobility and energy storage solutions for the marine sector. This expansion into sustainable, LNG-powered vessels aligns with India’s Maritime Vision 2047. By successfully competing for high-value international commercial orders alongside its massive defense backlog, Cochin Shipyard is positioning itself as a central player in the global transition toward cleaner maritime energy and self-reliant manufacturing.
Siddharth Vora Forecasts Market Recovery with Preference for Large-caps and Mid-caps Over Cyclicals, Metals, and PSU Banks
Indian equity markets are entering a constructive phase in February 2026, characterized by a transition from global underperformance to a potential period of mean reversion. Benchmark indices have shown resilience, with the Nifty 50 sustaining levels around **25,819** and the Sensex trading near **83,734**. Macroeconomic stability serves as a foundational pillar for this outlook. India’s retail inflation for January 2026 moderated to **2.75%** under the newly implemented CPI series. This cooling of price pressures, coupled with a Real GDP growth estimate of **8.2%**, reinforces India’s position as a leading growth economy. The current market environment is increasingly viewed as a contrarian opportunity. Analysts note that India’s relative underperformance against global peers and precious metals has reached a multi-decadal low, hitting the bottom **10th percentile**. Historically, such extremes often precede a cycle of outperformance. Sectoral leadership is shifting toward cyclicals and value-oriented themes. PSU banks have emerged as significant performers, with the State Bank of India recording a YTD return of **16.5%** as of mid-February. Improved asset quality and a **26%** increase in net profits across the public banking sector have bolstered investor confidence. Metals and energy remain key overweight areas. The Nifty Metal index continues to benefit from supply tightness and rising global commodity prices, with Hindustan Copper delivering a YTD return of **15.8%**. Upstream energy companies like Oil India have gained **15.3%** in the first two months of 2026, supported by geopolitical factors and firm crude prices. Institutional activity shows a notable shift in dynamics. While foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in early 2026, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have acted as a critical cushion, infusing over **₹9,775 crore** in February alone. This domestic liquidity has prevented deep corrections despite global volatility. Largecaps and midcaps are currently preferred over speculative segments. Earnings revisions are reportedly bottoming out after several weak quarters, signaling a potential recovery in corporate profitability for the fiscal year ahead. Technical indicators support this bullish bias, with the Nifty 50 maintaining its position above major moving averages. Market participants are watching the **26,000** level as a psychological hurdle that could trigger the next leg of the rally. Recent trade agreements, including the India-US trade pact and the EU Free Trade Agreement, are viewed as long-term structural wins. These developments, alongside a stabilizing rupee trading near **90.68** against the dollar, provide a favorable backdrop for Indian cyclicals to lead the market recovery.
Bharat Forge Signs MoU for Automotive, Defence, and Data Centre Collaboration
Bharat Forge has entered into a strategic Memorandum of Understanding with VVDN Technologies to pioneer next-generation solutions across the automotive, defense, and data center sectors. This partnership combines Bharat Forge’s global leadership in precision manufacturing with VVDN’s expertise in electronics design and AI-driven system integration. The collaboration comes as Bharat Forge reports a strong financial trajectory. In the quarter ended December 31, 2025, the company saw its consolidated revenue jump 25% year-on-year to 4,342.93 crore. Net profit for the same period climbed 28.2% to reach 272.80 crore, demonstrating robust operational resilience despite global supply chain fluctuations. The defense segment remains a critical growth engine. Bharat Forge’s defense order book has expanded to a record 11,130 crore, bolstered by a significant recent contract with the Ministry of Defence for the supply of 250,000 carbines. The new alliance with VVDN is expected to further enhance these capabilities by integrating advanced AI and autonomous systems into military platforms. In the automotive space, the partners are targeting the rise of software-defined vehicles. Recent market data indicates that nearly 95% of Indian consumers are now willing to pay for advanced digital vehicle features. The collaboration focuses on developing AI server platforms and high-compute electronics to meet this surging demand for intelligent mobility. The market has reacted positively to these developments. As of February 19, 2026, Bharat Forge’s stock is trading near its 52-week high of 1,784.20, with a current price of approximately 1,771.85. The company’s market capitalization has surged to approximately 84,712 crore, reflecting investor confidence in its diversification strategy. To reward shareholders, the board has declared an interim dividend of 2 per equity share. The partnership with VVDN is strategically timed to capitalize on the government's push for domestic electronics manufacturing and the rapid adoption of generative AI in industrial applications. By merging heavy engineering with high-tech electronics, the two entities aim to create a scalable ecosystem for sustainable compute infrastructure. This synergy is designed to shorten development cycles and deliver future-ready products to a global client base increasingly focused on autonomous and digital-first technologies.
L&T Partners with Nvidia to Build India’s Largest Gigawatt-Scale AI Factory
Larsen & Toubro has officially entered a strategic venture with Nvidia to develop India’s first sovereign, gigawatt-scale AI factory. Announced during the India AI Impact Summit in February 2026, this collaboration integrates L&T’s heavy engineering and data center expertise with Nvidia’s full-stack AI computing platform. The project is a cornerstone of the national IndiaAI Mission, which recently secured over 10,300 crore INR in government backing to democratize high-end compute access. The infrastructure footprint is massive. L&T is scaling its Chennai campus to a 30 MW GPU cluster within a 300-acre site, while simultaneously executing a new 40 MW data center in Mumbai. These facilities are designed to be "sovereign by design," ensuring that critical data and AI workloads for Indian enterprises remain within national borders while maintaining global interoperability. Market sentiment reflects the scale of this ambition. As of February 19, 2026, L&T’s stock is trading near record highs at 4,326 INR, reflecting a 34% gain over the past year. The company’s market capitalization has crossed 5.95 lakh crore INR, buoyed by a consolidated order book that has reached an unprecedented 7.33 lakh crore INR. The partnership is timed to meet a surge in domestic demand. India’s total AI investment is projected to scale significantly from its current 1.2 billion USD base, with the government aiming to deploy over 38,000 GPUs to support startups and researchers. By providing "production-grade" AI capacity, L&T and Nvidia are shifting the market focus from experimental AI pilots to large-scale industrial deployment. Beyond infrastructure, the venture enables L&T group companies—including L&T Technology Services and LTIMindtree—to deploy live AI agents on a sovereign cloud. These agents will power "Lights-Out" factories and autonomous industrial operations, leveraging Nvidia’s Omniverse libraries to create digital twins for manufacturing, energy, and healthcare sectors. This move positions India as a global hub for digital infrastructure. With the Indian IT sector projected to reach 350 billion USD this year, the L&T-Nvidia factory provides the foundational compute needed to transform India from a consumer of AI into a global producer of intelligence-led services.
MCX and NSE End Additional Margins on Gold and Silver Futures
The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) have officially withdrawn additional margins on gold and silver futures, effective today, February 19, 2026. This tactical reversal marks the end of heightened risk controls introduced earlier this month to combat extreme price swings. The clearing corporations have scrapped the 3% additional margin on all gold futures variants and the 7% extra levy on silver contracts. This rollback significantly lowers capital requirements for traders, with the primary goal of boosting market liquidity and improving capital efficiency for leveraged participants. This policy shift follows a substantial correction in bullion prices from their historic peaks. Gold has retreated nearly 20% from its record high of 1.93 lakh per 10 grams, currently trading near 1.56 lakh in domestic markets. International spot gold is hovering around $4,961 an ounce, down from levels exceeding $5,100 seen earlier this year. Silver has experienced a much sharper downturn. After a historic single-day crash of 27% on January 31, the metal has fallen approximately 42% from its peak of 4.20 lakh per kilogram. Domestic silver futures are now positioned around 2.43 lakh per kg, while international prices have stabilized near $76 per ounce, down from a high of $120. The removal of these curbs is expected to encourage fresh positions and higher intraday activity. While volatility remains present due to geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators, the decline in daily price ranges suggests a relative stabilization compared to the chaotic trading environment of late January. Market participants are currently monitoring the U.S. Dollar Index and Treasury yields, which continue to influence precious metals. Despite the recent price cooling, global demand remains supported by central bank purchases and persistent safe-haven interest amid ongoing trade and tariff uncertainties.
5 Nifty500 Stocks, Including Godfrey Phillips and Netweb Tech, Exhibit Bullish RSI Upswing
Market Brief: Global Equity and Commodity Update Global markets are showing resilience as of **February 19, 2026**, supported by strong technology investments and a stabilization in global growth projections. The International Monetary Fund recently adjusted its **2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%**, citing private sector adaptability and fiscal support as primary drivers against ongoing trade policy shifts. U.S. Equity Performance U.S. indices reached fresh milestones in mid-February. The **S&P 500** is currently trading near **6,881**, reflecting a daily gain of **0.56%**. The **Nasdaq 100** has reclaimed the **25,000** level, up **0.78%** as large-cap technology stocks continue to lead the market rebound. The **Dow Jones Industrial Average** stands at **49,662**, a gain of **0.26%**. While the "Magnificent Seven" stocks have provided a significant bounce, analysts are closely monitoring potential resistance at the **50,272** mark. Market volatility remains present, with the **VIX** cooling by **3.3%** to settle at **19.62**. Commodities and Energy Precious metals are experiencing significant price swings. **Gold** prices have faced recent pressure, falling below the **$4,900** per ounce mark to trade near **$4,861**. Despite this short-term volatility, some long-term forecasts remain bullish, with projections suggesting a potential rise toward **$5,600** by year-end due to sustained macroeconomic demand. **Silver** experienced a sharper correction, with prices dropping roughly **5.6%** to settle near **$73.45** per ounce. In the energy sector, **Brent crude** remains range-bound, currently trading near **$62** per barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide a floor for prices, while rising supply from North America prevents a significant breakout. **Natural gas** remains under bearish pressure, with futures hovering around the **$2.75** mark. Central Bank Policy The **Federal Reserve** and other major central banks are maintaining a "wait and watch" approach. Recent FOMC minutes suggest a hawkish tilt as officials look for more definitive signs that inflation is returning to the **2%** target. In India, the **Reserve Bank of India** kept the repo rate unchanged at **5.25%** during its February meeting. The bank maintains a neutral stance, noting that while inflation is currently benign, global uncertainties warrant a cautious approach to further rate cuts. Regional Highlights Asian markets show a divergent trend. **South Korea** reported a surge in semiconductor exports, while **China’s** growth outlook remains at approximately **4.6%** for 2026. Trade patterns are shifting, with U.S. imports from Southeast Asia—particularly Thailand and Vietnam—increasing as companies diversify supply chains away from traditional hubs.
Five stocks including Infosys and Maruti for potential long-term returns in 2026.
Market benchmarks **Nifty 50** and **BSE Sensex** extended their recovery into a third consecutive session on **February 18, 2026**, as positive sentiment returned to the banking and metal sectors. The **Nifty 50** closed up **0.37%** at **25,819.35**, while the **Sensex** rose **283.29 points** to settle at **83,734.25**. Investor confidence was bolstered by state-owned lenders, with the **PSU Bank index** surging **1.3%**. Metal stocks followed suit, gaining **1.33%** amid reports of potential global tariff easing. In contrast, the **IT sector** faced selling pressure, with the **Nifty IT index** declining **1.2%**. Top Brokerage Recommendations **Motilal Oswal** has highlighted **Delhivery** as a high-conviction pick with a target of **420** to **570**, representing a **36% upside**. The firm also maintains a positive outlook on **Britannia Industries**, targeting **7,150** (a **20% upside**) following strong margin expansion in the third quarter. **Anand Rathi** technical research suggests immediate buys on **Bharti Airtel** at a target of **2,100** and **Coal India** with a target of **470**. Analysts note that **Bharti Airtel** is finding strong support at its short-term mean, while **Coal India** is entering a reversal phase after a healthy correction. **Nuvama** and **Citi** remain constructive on large-cap leaders. **Citi** has raised its target price on **R R Kabel** and maintained a buy on **Hyundai Motor**, while **Nuvama** recently upgraded **Prestige Estates** and **Brigade Enterprises** to capture gains in the real estate cycle. Key Market Data Points * **Rupee Status**: The Indian rupee appreciated by **6 paise** to close at **90.66** against the US dollar. * **Breadth**: Market breadth favored gainers, with **2,224 stocks advancing** against **1,903 declines** on the BSE. * **Foreign Inflow**: Renewed confidence in India's **7.4% GDP growth projection** for **FY26** has seen a revival in FII net buying. * **Corporate Moves**: **SBI Funds Management** has announced a landmark **$1.5 billion IPO** slated for March. Sector and Economic Outlook Industrial activity is gaining momentum with a projected growth of **6.2%** for **FY26**. The services sector continues to lead the economy, now contributing **60%** of Gross Value Added. Recent budget provisions for **2026** have introduced a **Rs 40,000 crore** outlay for electronics manufacturing, benefiting semiconductor and tech hardware players. However, volatility remains elevated as investors track the **U.S. Federal Reserve** minutes for interest rate guidance. Financial experts suggest a **buy-on-dips** strategy, focusing on blue-chip names like **ICICI Bank**, **Reliance**, and **Hindustan Aeronautics**, which have shown resilient **5-year CAGR** performance. Analysts expect **Nifty** to face resistance at **26,000**, with strong support established in the **25,400–25,500** range.