Bearish News
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US Dollar Weakens Amid Shifting Tariff Expectations
The U.S. dollar is navigating a period of high volatility following a landmark Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trumpâs sweeping emergency tariffs. While the decision was initially seen as a catalyst for global growth, the market remains cautious as the administration moves to implement replacement levies under alternative legal authorities. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently tested a 97.89 level, marking its strongest weekly performance in four months. However, the currency remains under pressure as traders weigh the legal constraints now placed on executive trade powers. The courtâs 6â3 decision invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), effectively reducing the trade-weighted average U.S. tariff rate from 15.4% to 8.3%. In an immediate countermove, the White House announced a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This temporary surcharge is slated for 150 days, after which it would require Congressional approval. Market uncertainty has intensified as President Trump subsequently signaled a potential hike of these new levies to 15%, leaving businesses and international partners in a state of flux. The fiscal outlook is further complicated by the potential for $175 billion in customs refunds. Analysts warn that returning these funds to importers could significantly widen the U.S. fiscal deficit, adding a layer of long-term structural weakness for the greenback. Geopolitical tensions are providing a counter-narrative for the dollarâs trajectory. Increasing friction between the U.S. and Iran has pushed Brent crude prices toward 6-month highs, with some projections suggesting a climb to $91 per barrel if supply disruptions persist. These tensions have bolstered safe-haven demand, keeping the dollar and goldânow trading above $5,000âelevated despite the domestic policy setbacks. Equities have shown resilience, with the S&P 500 rising 0.69% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.90% following the ruling. Investors appear to be focusing on the removal of "reciprocal tariffs," which had previously placed heavy burdens on major trading partners like India, where 55% of exports are now expected to be free from 18% duties. Looking ahead, the market focus shifts to the Federal Reserve's next move. With the core PCE price index and fourth-quarter GDP data looming, the Fed's stance on inflation will be critical. Current market pricing shows expectations for only two rate cuts in 2026, a hawkish shift from previous estimates that may continue to provide a floor for the dollar amidst the ongoing trade policy overhaul.
Oil Prices Decline Amid Iran Nuclear Negotiations and US Tariff Uncertainty
Crude oil markets are currently caught in a tug-of-war between escalating Middle East tensions and a shifting U.S. trade policy. Prices recently reached six-month highs as the risk of military confrontation in the Persian Gulf overshadowed bearish supply fundamentals. Brent crude is trading around $72.21 per barrel, reflecting a weekly gain of nearly 6%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has climbed to approximately $67.05, representing a weekly surge of over 5.5%. These levels mark a significant recovery from the $55 range seen earlier this year. Geopolitical risk is the primary driver. The Trump administration has issued an ultimatum to Tehran, giving Iran a 10 to 15-day window to negotiate a new nuclear deal. This diplomatic pressure is backed by the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since 2003, with carrier strike groups moving into the region. The market is pricing in a high "risk premium" due to the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global oil and 20% of LNG trade passes through this chokepoint. Analysts warn that a limited disruption to Iranian exports could add $10 to $12 to per-barrel prices, while a full blockade of the strait could push oil past $130. On the economic front, President Trump has introduced fresh uncertainty by signing a proclamation for a 10% global import surcharge. This move follows a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated previous emergency levies. The president has already signaled an intent to raise this tariff to 15% effective immediately. These trade barriers are expected to dampen global growth and fuel demand. The IEA has already revised its 2026 demand growth forecast down to 850,000 barrels per day. While demand slows, a supply surplus is looming; total global liquids inventories are projected to build by over 4 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. OPEC+ remains a stabilizing force for now. The group has reaffirmed its decision to pause production increases through March 2026. However, the combination of slowing demand and rising production from non-OPEC+ sources creates a complex outlook for the remainder of the year. While the "energy phase" of the current commodity supercycle appears to be underway, the market remains on a knife-edge. Traders are closely monitoring the 15-day deadline for Iran, as any transition from diplomatic pressure to kinetic action would likely trigger immediate volatility.
Pre-Market Analysis and Trading Outlook for the Current Session
Global markets are adjusting to a high-stakes legal shift in Washington after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a series of broad trade tariffs. In a 6-3 ruling, the court determined that the administration lacked the constitutional authority to impose wide-ranging levies under existing emergency powers, returning the power of taxation to Congress. In an immediate response to the verdict, the White House announced a new temporary global import surcharge of 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This "stopgap" measure is limited to a 150-day window unless extended by a congressional vote. This pivot from a previous average tariff rate of roughly 17% down to 10% has triggered significant volatility across international trade hubs. Asian equity markets reacted with mixed sentiment as the new week began. Japanâs Nikkei 225 index faced downward pressure, sliding 1.17% to close near the 56,792 level. Investors in Tokyo remain cautious as the reduction in U.S. tariffs is offset by the 150-day expiration risk and the potential for a more chaotic, unpredictable trade environment. In contrast, Australiaâs ASX 200 showed resilience, maintaining a position above the 9,025 mark. While the index saw some intra-day softening, it remains supported by strong half-year corporate earnings, particularly from the mining sector. The Australian market is also weighing a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which recently raised the cash rate to 3.85% to combat persistent inflation. The Indian rupee continues to trade under stress against a strengthening U.S. dollar. The currency is currently hovering near the 90.75 to 91.00 range. Despite the Supreme Court ruling theoretically lowering the tariff burden on Indian exports from 18% to 10%, the rupee remains sensitive to broader emerging market capital outflows and global trade uncertainty. Commodities have emerged as a primary hedge against this instability. Gold has seen a notable surge, firmly crossing the $5,100 per ounce threshold. The metal has benefited from a weakening dollar and the billions of dollars in potential tariff refunds now hanging over the U.S. Treasury, which total an estimated $264 billion from 2025 alone. Market participants are now focusing on upcoming economic indicators to gauge the next move. Critical data points include fourth-quarter GDP figures from India and Switzerland, as well as February inflation data from major European economies. With the new 10% surcharge set to take effect on February 24, supply chains are bracing for a period of intense renegotiation and legal maneuvering.
Bitcoin Price Stabilizes Near $68,000 Amid Updated US Tariff Policies
Crypto Market Brief: February 21, 2026 Bitcoin maintains a steady footing near the **$68,000** threshold this Saturday, demonstrating notable resilience against a backdrop of complex macroeconomic shifts. Despite the U.S. Supreme Court recently striking down specific executive tariff powers, the broader climate of trade uncertainty continues to influence risk-asset sentiment. The primary digital asset is currently trading at approximately **$67,830**, navigating a period of intense consolidation. This stability comes even as the sector processes significant institutional movement, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recording roughly **$3.8 billion** in outflows over the last four weeks. Technical indicators suggest a tightening range for Bitcoin. Buyers are currently defending a critical support zone between **$65,000** and **$67,000**. On the upside, the asset faces immediate resistance at the **$70,000** psychological barrier, followed by a more formidable technical ceiling at **$73,750**. Ethereum is exhibiting similar consolidation patterns, holding firm near **$1,960**. The second-largest cryptocurrency is currently compressed within a symmetrical triangle pattern, a formation that often precedes a sharp breakout. While it remains below the key **$2,200** resistance level, active network addresses have stabilized as selling pressure from the U.S. market begins to ease. * **Bitcoin (BTC):** $67,830 (+0.35%) * **Ethereum (ETH):** $1,955 (+0.22%) * **Total Market Cap:** $2.3 Trillion Market participants are closely monitoring the derivatives landscape. Approximately **$2.4 billion** in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired recently, with "max pain" points situated at **$70,000** and **$2,050** respectively. This positioning suggests a potential magnet effect that could pull prices toward these levels if volatility remains controlled. Altcoins have shown moderate strength, with the Fear & Greed Index hovering at an extreme low of **8**, historically a level where contrarian buyers begin to accumulate. While institutional demand has cooled from its early 2025 peaks, on-chain data reveals that long-term whale addresses continue to hold, providing a structural floor for the current market valuation. The near-term outlook remains dependent on upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data scheduled for late February. A sustained move above the **7-day moving average** near **$70,000** for Bitcoin would be required to neutralize the current short-term bearish structure and signal a renewed push toward previous highs.
Potential Impact of US-Iran Tensions on Indiaâs Crude Oil Costs and Inflation Rates
Market Brief: Strait of Hormuz Tension and Energy Volatility Geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran has pushed global energy markets to a six-month high. As of **February 21, 2026**, Brent crude is trading near **$71.68** per barrel, marking a sharp recovery of over **12%** within the last month. Market anxiety is centered on a **10-day** ultimatum issued by the U.S. administration for Iran to reach a nuclear agreement, fueling fears of a potential military escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains the primary global concern. Approximately **20-21%** of the worldâs seaborne-traded crude oil and nearly **20%** of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit through this **21-mile** wide waterway. Iranian naval exercises and the temporary closure of shipping lanes earlier this week have already triggered a risk premium in pricing, adding an estimated **$5-10** per barrel to current benchmarks. India faces significant economic exposure due to its **87%** import dependency. More than **40%** of India's crude imports pass directly through the Strait of Hormuz. For every **$1** increase in the price of oil, Indiaâs annual import bill expands by approximately **$2 billion**. While the Reserve Bank of India has maintained the repo rate at **5.25%** and projected a manageable inflation rate of **2.1%** for **FY26**, sustained energy price spikes threaten these stability targets. Logistical shifts are already visible as regional risks intensify. Indian refiners have reduced Russian oil imports to roughly **1.2 million** barrels per day, down from peaks of over **2 million**, while increasing intake from Saudi Arabia to **1.1 million** barrels. This diversification aims to mitigate supply chain shocks, but alternative routes like the Cape of Good Hope add **25-30 days** to transit times and up to **$2.25 million** in costs per shipment. Market analysts assign a **70%** probability to a U.S. strike if diplomacy fails. A partial transit disruption could push Brent into the **$85-95** range, while a full chokepoint closure would likely trigger triple-digit pricing. Shipping insurance premiums have already surged **200-400%** above baseline rates, reflecting the heightened risk of maritime incidents in the Persian Gulf. This video provides a deep dive into the maritime geography and historical significance of the world's most critical oil transit point.
Indian 10-Year Bond Yield Rises Amid Geopolitical Tensions between U.S. and Iran
India's sovereign debt market faced significant selling pressure today as the benchmark 10-year government bond yield climbed to 6.73%, up from its previous close of 6.67%. This spike is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have pushed energy prices to their highest levels in over six months. Brent crude futures surged toward 71.50 USD per barrel, while the Indian Basket of crude jumped to an average of 68.13 USD for February. Market participants are increasingly concerned that a potential military confrontation could disrupt supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows. Higher oil prices pose a direct threat to Indiaâs inflation outlook and fiscal deficit, as the country remains heavily dependent on energy imports. The bond market also remains on edge ahead of a planned 330 billion INR government debt auction. Investors are showing heightened caution, leading to a rise in long-term overnight index swap rates and a general pullback from risk-sensitive assets. In the currency market, the Indian Rupee weakened significantly, gapping down to 91.20 against the U.S. Dollar. This depreciation is fueled by the rising cost of dollar-denominated imports and sustained selling by foreign institutional investors. Domestic liquidity conditions continue to be a focus for the Reserve Bank of India. While the central bank recently paused its rate-cut cycle at 5.25%, analysts suggest that any further spike in crude-led inflation could delay future monetary easing and keep yields elevated for the foreseeable future.
Indian Rupee Hits Near-Record Low Towards 91 Per Dollar Following Weekly Decline
Market Brief: Rupee Under Pressure The Indian Rupee faced significant volatility this week, culminating in a sharp decline that saw the currency settle at **90.99** against the US Dollar on Friday, February 20, 2026. This move represents the steepest weekly fall in a month, as the currency struggled to maintain its footing near the psychologically important **91.00** mark. A primary driver of this depreciation has been a massive surge in capital outflows. Recent data confirms that foreign investors repatriated a record **$7.45 billion** in a single month, the highest on record. While gross inflows remain healthy, the net effect of these repatriationsâdriven by profit-taking and shifting global strategiesâhas placed heavy selling pressure on the domestic unit. Strategic Reserve Buffers Despite the currency's slide, India's external sector remains resilient. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported that foreign exchange reserves jumped by **$8.66 billion** to reach an all-time high of **$725.73 billion** for the week ending February 13. This record-high war chest has allowed the central bank to intervene actively. Traders report that the RBI has been selling dollars in both spot and forward markets to prevent the Rupee from breaching the **91.20** level. Historical data reveals the central bank sold over **$10 billion** in a recent monthly cycle to curb similar volatility. Global Drivers and Trade Impact The strength of the US Dollar Index, which recently climbed toward **98.00**, remains a major headwind. Higher-than-expected US inflation data and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve have revitalized the greenback, drawing liquidity away from emerging markets. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and surrounding oil-producing regions, have further soured investor appetite. Rising crude oil prices are a critical concern for India, as they widen the trade deficit, which recently hit a three-month high of **$34.68 billion**. Sectoral Trends Market sentiment is currently split across different sectors. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) dumped nearly **âš11,000 crore** in Indian IT stocks during the first half of February, fueled by concerns over technological disruptions. However, a recent interim trade deal between India and the United States has provided a silver lining. The removal of certain penal tariffs and a reduction in reciprocal duties to **18%** have encouraged over **$2 billion** in new equity purchases this month, acting as a partial counterweight to the broader sell-off.
Eurozone Bond Yields Stabilize Near Recent Lows Amid ECB Commentary and Geopolitical Developments
**EUROZONE DEBT MARKET BRIEF** Eurozone government bond yields are tracking toward a second consecutive weekly decline this Friday, February 20, 2026. This downward movement reflects a complex interplay between shifting central bank leadership, evolving inflation data, and heightened geopolitical friction in the Middle East. **BOND YIELDS AND FISCAL SUPPLY** The benchmark German 10-year Bund yield is currently hovering around 2.74%, maintaining a retreat from recent highs. Markets are currently absorbing a period of record-high supply, with net issuance of European government bonds expected to reach 930 billion EUR for the full year. Refinancing costs remain a primary concern as roughly 1.4 trillion EUR in gross issuance hits the market. This surge in supply comes as the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its quantitative tightening, reducing its holdings by an estimated 384 billion EUR this year. **CENTRAL BANK TRANSITION** Speculation regarding the future of ECB leadership has introduced fresh uncertainty into the bond market. Reports indicate that President Christine Lagarde may consider an early departure before her term ends in 2027. The potential move is viewed as a strategic opening for French President Emmanuel Macron to influence the selection of a successor before the next domestic election cycle. Despite these rumors, the ECB held rates steady at its most recent February meeting, with inflation cooling to 1.7% in Januaryâfalling below the 2.0% medium-term target. **GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND SAFE HAVENS** Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have reignited "risk-off" sentiment, providing further support for government debt. The U.S. administration has issued a 10 to 15-day deadline for a new nuclear deal, warning of significant consequences if negotiations fail. While Brent crude oil has surged past 72.00 USD per barrel on supply disruption fears, the heightened regional instability has driven investors toward the relative safety of European sovereign bonds. This flight-to-quality has effectively capped yield increases that might otherwise have been triggered by the heavy issuance schedule. **ECONOMIC OUTLOOK** The broader Eurozone economy remains in a state of modest expansion, with GDP growing by 0.3% in the final quarter of last year. While services continue to drive growth, the manufacturing sector faces headwinds from global trade volatility and higher energy costs. Market participants are now pricing in a very low probabilityâroughly 2%âof a rate cut at the ECBâs upcoming March meeting, as policymakers remain cautious about underlying core inflation, which still sits at 2.2%.
**Nikkei Declines Amid Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Between U.S. and Iran**
Market Brief: Nikkei 225 Retraction Japanese equities faced a sharp correction on Friday, February 20, 2026, as the Nikkei 225 index closed at **56,825.70**, marking a decline of **642.13 points** or **1.12%**. The sell-off was triggered by a combination of escalating geopolitical risks and cooling sentiment in the global financial sector. Geopolitical Pressures Heightened tensions between the United States and Iran have become a primary driver of market volatility. Prediction markets currently place the probability of a U.S. military strike on Iran at approximately **60%** by late March. This uncertainty has pushed Brent crude oil prices toward the **$72** per barrel range, creating a dual headwind for Japan. As a major energy importer, the rising cost of fuel threatens corporate margins and consumer spending power. Sector Performance and Drags Sentiment was further dampened by a notable sell-off in U.S. private equity shares. Major listed asset managers have seen increased pressure as high-profile realizations and IPO activity remain uneven, causing a ripple effect across global financial stocks. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the downturn was broad-based. The Nikkei Volatility Index climbed **4.23%** to reach **29.07**, reflecting growing investor nervousness. While Mitsui Mining and Smelting gained **5.44%**, heavyweights like Seven & i Holdings fell **4.26%**, and the paper, pulp, and transport sectors faced significant losses. Macroeconomic Context The market is also recalibrating in the wake of recent political shifts and monetary policy expectations. Following the landslide election victory of the Liberal Democratic Party, the new administration is pursuing an expansionary fiscal agenda and a **$135 billion** monetary easing package. However, the Bank of Japan remains in a delicate position. After raising the policy rate to a 30-year high of **0.75%** in December, the central bank is balancing a resilient domestic economy against a weakening yen, which currently trades near **155.17** against the dollar. Key Indicators at a Glance * **Nikkei 225 Close:** 56,825.70 (**-1.12%**) * **Nikkei Volatility Index:** 29.07 (**+4.23%**) * **USD/JPY Exchange Rate:** 155.17 * **Brent Crude:** $71.99 per barrel * **Gold Futures:** $5,038.64 per ounce The current market environment is defined by a "flight to safety," with gold prices rising **0.83%** as investors hedge against Middle Eastern instability and potential supply chain disruptions. Short-term focus remains on the upcoming U.S. inflation data and potential diplomatic developments in the Persian Gulf.
Indian Bond Yields Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Higher Oil Prices
Indian government bond yields moved higher this Friday, driven by a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The threat of military conflict in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude prices toward a critical resistance level of **$70.30** per barrel, marking a significant shift in market risk appetite. Traders in the Indian debt market remain on edge as the government prepares for its weekly auction of **330 billion rupees** ($3.64 billion). This sale includes three-year, seven-year, and 30-year papers. The increased supply comes at a time when rising energy costs threaten to pressure domestic inflation, which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently projected at **2.1%** for the current fiscal year. The benchmark **10-year bond yield** has edged up to approximately **6.70%**, reversing a recent cooling trend. Earlier this month, yields had softened after the RBI maintained the repo rate at **5.25%** and ensured a banking system liquidity surplus averaging **2.70 trillion rupees**. However, the current "risk-off" sentiment has stalled this rally. In the derivatives market, long-term Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates have also climbed. The five-year OIS rate settled near **6.04%**, reflecting heightened concern over global supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical uncertainty is now the primary driver, outweighing recent positive news such as the governmentâs plan to reduce gross borrowing by **1 trillion rupees** through debt switch operations. Global energy markets are reacting to a "10-day ultimatum" issued by the U.S. administration to Iran. With one-third of waterborne crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption could see oil prices test **$72.00** per barrel. For India, a major oil importer, these levels increase the fiscal burden and limit the scope for further monetary easing in the near term. Market participants are closely watching the cutoff prices at today's auction for signs of institutional demand. While domestic liquidity remains ample, the external environment is currently dictating the pace of yield movements, forcing a cautious stance across the fixed-income spectrum.
Indian Rupee Drops 27 Paise to 90.95 Against US Dollar
The Indian rupee faced intensified pressure on Friday, February 20, 2026, as a convergence of geopolitical risks and global macro shifts weighed on the domestic currency. The local unit retreated toward the **90.95** level against the US dollar, reflecting a broader trend of risk aversion across emerging markets. The primary catalyst for this weakness is the escalating friction between the United States and Iran. Market nerves were rattled by reports of a potential US military strike following stalled nuclear talks and a strict 15-day ultimatum issued by Washington. This standoff has heightened fears regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor that facilitates roughly **20%** of the world's oil supply. Consequently, Brent crude prices surged past the **$71.40** per barrel mark, hitting six-month peaks. For India, which imports nearly **80%** of its oil requirements, this spike directly threatens the trade deficit and stokes concerns of imported inflation. Equity Market Volatility Domestic stock indices reflected the global unease, with the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 experiencing a significant downturn. The Sensex plummeted by over **1,236 points** (**1.5%**) to settle near **82,500**, while the Nifty 50 shed **365 points** to close around **25,454**. This selloff effectively erased approximately **âš6.4 lakh crore** in investor wealth in a single session. The India VIX, a key measure of market fear, spiked by **10.1%** to reach **13.5**, signaling that traders anticipate continued volatility in the near term. Institutional Flows and Foreign Reserves Capital outflows added to the rupee's woes as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net sellers. On the most recent trading day, FPIs offloaded equities worth **âš880.49 crore**, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also recorded net sales of approximately **âš596.28 crore**. Recent data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) further underscores the tightening liquidity environment. India's foreign exchange reserves fell by **$6.71 billion** to **$717.6 billion** as of the latest reporting week. This decline was largely attributed to a dip in foreign currency assets and a sharp **$14.2 billion** drop in gold holdings. The Strengthening Dollar The US dollar index (DXY) continues to find support from a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and strong US economic data. The dollar is currently on track for its strongest weekly performance since October, bolstered by its status as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical crisis. As the market monitors the developments in West Asia and upcoming US Core PCE data, the rupee is expected to remain under the "cosh," with technical support for the Nifty now pegged at the **25,000** to **25,330** range.
Sensex and Nifty Trade Flat Amid IT Sector Decline
Indian benchmark indices traded with a cautious and muted bias on Friday, February 20, 2026, following a sharp sell-off in the previous session. The market continues to navigate high volatility driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and concerns over global oil supply chains. The **BSE Sensex** hovered near the **82,500** mark in early trade, showing a marginal decline of approximately **10 to 15 points**. Simultaneously, the **NSE Nifty 50** remained largely flat, trading near **25,470**, struggling to regain momentum after dropping over **360 points** on Thursday. Sectoral performance remained mixed as investors adopted a defensive stance. The **IT sector**, which faced significant pressure earlier in the week, showed signs of stabilization with modest gains in heavyweights like **Infosys** and **TCS**. **Pharma** and **Auto** stocks also saw selective buying interest, providing some support to the frontline indices. In contrast, sectors such as **Realty**, **Media**, and **Consumer Durables** continued to drag the broader market. Banking stocks remained under observation as private-sector lenders faced slight selling pressure, keeping the **Nifty Bank** near the **61,200** level. Top individual gainers included **ONGC**, which rose over **2%** due to firming global crude prices, with Brent crude trading near **$72 per barrel**. **Larsen & Toubro (L&T)** and **Bharat Electronics (BEL)** also traded in the green, supported by steady order book expectations and domestic industrial demand. Market breadth remained weak on the BSE, with approximately **1,826 shares declining** against **1,146 advancing**. The **India VIX**, a key gauge of market anxiety, remains elevated near **13.50**, reflecting a **10% surge** in volatility over the last 24 hours. Institutional activity has contributed to the cautious atmosphere. Provisional data shows **Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs)** were net sellers of shares worth **âš880.49 crore** on February 19, while **Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)** also offloaded equities worth **âš596.28 crore**. The Indian Rupee remained under pressure, trading near the **âš90 mark** against the U.S. Dollar. Investors are closely monitoring the **Strait of Hormuz** for potential shipping disruptions and the **U.S. Federal Reserve's** upcoming signals on interest rate trajectories, which remain critical for foreign fund inflows.
Silver and Gold Prices Rise Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions
Precious metals are maintaining a firm trajectory as of February 20, 2026, driven by a convergence of heightened geopolitical anxiety and a major structural shift in domestic trading regulations. **Market Performance & Pricing** On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for the February 2026 contract are trading strongly higher, holding near **1,56,640** per 10 grams. This recovery follows a recent support floor established near **1,54,000**. Silver is showing even more aggressive recovery signs. After plunging to a weekly low of **2,55,000** per kg on February 18, it has rebounded by more than **15,000**, with MCX futures currently trading modestly higher near **2,70,100** per kg. Despite this bounce, silver remains approximately **34%** below its January all-time high of **4,10,000**. **Geopolitical Drivers** Safe-haven demand has surged due to a "fever pitch" in Middle East tensions. Reports of joint Iranian-Russian military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz, involving special forces and naval drills, have rattled global markets. Simultaneously, the largest U.S. air force deployment since 2003âfeaturing stealth fighters and aircraft carriersâhas intensified fears of a direct confrontation. Global spot gold reflects this unease, hovering around the **5,000** per ounce mark, while international silver trades near **77** per ounce. **Liquidity and Regulatory Shifts** A pivotal change in market mechanics took effect on February 19, 2026. Both the MCX and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) officially withdrew additional margins that were imposed earlier in the month to control volatility. The removal of the **3%** additional margin on gold and the **7%** additional margin on silver is expected to significantly improve market participation. By reducing the upfront capital required to hold positions, exchanges aim to boost liquidity and retail involvement, even as global price swings remain elevated. **Trends and Outlook** The broader market remains caught between two conflicting forces: * **Supportive:** Persistent geopolitical risks and central bank accumulation, with gold now accounting for **17.2%** of Indiaâs foreign exchange reserves. * **Pressure:** Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path and a firm U.S. Dollar index. Technical indicators suggest gold is in a consolidation phase, seeking to reclaim the psychological **5,100** resistance level. Silver's outlook is bolstered by a projected market deficit of **67 million** ounces for 2026, though it faces immediate resistance in the **2,49,000** to **2,54,000** range on the MCX.
US Market: Investors Monitor Policy Signals for Future Trends
Global markets are positioning for a critical week as the International Monetary Fund prepares to release its annual "Article IV" review of U.S. economic policies on February 25. This assessment comes at a volatile moment for Wall Street, following a year of aggressive fiscal shifts and persistent trade imbalances. Market participants are primarily focused on the IMFâs verdict regarding fiscal sustainability. Recent legislative changes and tax cuts have pushed the projected annual deficit to approximately 5.8% of GDP for 2026, totaling roughly 1.9 trillion dollars. Total public debt is now on a trajectory to reach 101% of GDP this year, with some estimates suggesting it could climb to 120% by 2036. Equity markets have reacted to these headwinds with caution. Recent sessions saw the S&P 500 dip 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% as investors weighed the implications of "fiscal dominance." This phenomenon occurs when massive government borrowing potentially constrains the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain its independence, as rising interest rates significantly increase the cost of servicing the national debt. The U.S. dollar remains a central pillar of the global financial system, though its valuation is under scrutiny. Despite recent volatility, the dollar is currently trading near its 10-year historical average. However, it has depreciated roughly 1.2% year-to-date against a basket of major currencies. Analysts are monitoring whether the IMF will highlight the dollar as overvalued or express concerns over its role in financing the widening 901 billion dollar trade deficit recorded last year. Labor market data also presents a complex picture for the review. The unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.6%, but hire rates have slowed. At the same time, inflation shows signs of cooling, with the headline Consumer Price Index most recently recorded at 2.7%, down from 3.0% in late 2025. Investors are looking for the IMF to provide a definitive roadmap on macro risks, particularly regarding how the U.S. can balance robust growthâprojected at 2.4% for 2026âagainst a debt burden that now exceeds post-World War Two records. The results of this review are expected to influence interest rate expectations and the long-term direction of global capital flows.
Oil Prices Rise Amid U.S. Policy Deadline on Iran
Market Brief: Persian Gulf Escalation Oil markets are entering a period of high volatility as the standoff between the United States and Iran intensifies. On **February 20, 2026**, benchmark prices reached their highest levels in months. Brent crude surged to **$71.93** per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to **$66.74**. The rally follows a breakdown in nuclear negotiations in Geneva. Washington has issued a final **10-day** deadline for Tehran to offer concessions or face military consequences. In response, Iran has moved its national defense systems to a wartime footing and conducted naval drills featuring ballistic missiles near the coast. Strategic Chokepoint Risks The primary driver of the current "war premium" is the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway facilitates the passage of approximately **21 million** barrels of oil per day, representing roughly **21%** of global consumption. Recent reports of a temporary **2-hour** closure of the Strait by Iranian forces have unnerved traders. Analysts suggest that a significant blockage could trigger a supply shock, potentially driving prices toward the **$100** mark. Currently, markets have priced in a risk premium of **$5** to **$10** per barrel based on the immediate threat level. Military and Economic Indicators The U.S. has significantly bolstered its regional presence, deploying the **USS Abraham Lincoln** carrier strike group and over **50** advanced combat jets, including F-35s and F-22s. Reports indicate that the **USS Gerald R. Ford** is also en route to the region. Simultaneously, U.S. domestic energy data shows a tightening market. Crude and gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly for the week ending **February 13**, defying analyst predictions of a **2.1 million** barrel increase. This domestic drawdown, combined with geopolitical fears, has created a dual-pressure environment for prices. Supply and Demand Outlook Despite the immediate price spikes, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that global oil supply actually rose by **2.4 million** barrels per day in early **2026**, split between OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers like Guyana. However, Iranian exports have already begun to contract, falling to **1.39 million** barrels per day in Januaryâa **26%** year-over-year decline. If diplomatic efforts fail to produce a resolution by the end of February, market volatility is expected to expand by another **15%** to **25%** as hedging activity intensifies across the energy sector.
Asian Stocks Decline and Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Geopolitical Focus
**Geopolitical Risk Brief: US-Iran Escalation** Asian equities faced a widespread downturn as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran soured investor sentiment. Japan's **Nikkei 225** and Australia's **S&P/ASX 200** both opened lower as the market grappled with fresh security risks in the Middle East. Energy markets are currently reflecting a significant "war premium." **Brent crude** surged past **$71.80** per barrel, marking its highest level since August. Simultaneously, **West Texas Intermediate (WTI)** climbed above **$66.50**. Traders are pricing in a **70% probability** of a US military strike following the collapse of nuclear discussions in Geneva. The strategic importance of the **Strait of Hormuz** remains the primary concern for global supply. Roughly **20%** of the world's daily oil consumption passes through this chokepoint. Any disruption to shipping lanes could trigger a rapid spike in energy costs and disrupt global manufacturing supply chains. Safe-haven assets have seen a corresponding spike in demand. Spot **gold** has breached the symbolic **$5,000** per ounce mark, as investors move away from riskier equity positions. This flight to safety is also strengthening the **US Dollar**, which rose **0.25%** against a basket of major currencies. Market analysts suggest that stocks have not yet fully priced in the potential for a prolonged conflict. While many investors originally expected a diplomatic resolution, recent military movementsâincluding the deployment of **carrier strike groups** and stealth fightersâhave shifted expectations toward a short-term military intervention. Central banks are monitoring the situation closely. A sustained rise in oil prices threatens to reignite **inflationary pressures**, potentially delaying planned interest rate cuts in major economies. For now, volatility remains high as the global market awaits a definitive signal from Washington or Tehran.
Indian Stock Market Declines as Rising US-Iran Tensions Lift Oil Prices
Market Brief: Indiaâs Response to Rising Geopolitical Stress Indian equity markets faced a wave of heavy selling as the week drew to a close. The benchmark **BSE Sensex plummeted 1,236 points**, representing a **1.48% decline**, to settle at **82,498.14**. Simultaneously, the **NSE Nifty 50** shed **1.41%**, sliding below the psychological support level of 25,500 to end the session at **25,454.35**. The downturn was triggered by a sudden escalation in military rhetoric between the United States and Iran. Market nerves were rattled by reports of a possible military strike and the deployment of aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf. Energy and Commodity Pressure The geopolitical standoff had an immediate impact on the energy sector. **Brent crude oil** futures climbed nearly **2%**, trading at **$71.66 per barrel**. This marks its highest level in six months. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) followed suit, settling at **$66.43**. Analysts warn that a total disruption of Iranian exports or any interference with the **Strait of Hormuz**âwhere **20% of global oil** passesâcould push prices toward **$100**. As a major net importer of oil, India is particularly sensitive to these shifts. Higher crude prices translate directly into concerns over widening trade deficits and increased domestic inflation. Currency and Volatility The **Indian Rupee (INR)** faced downward pressure as the US Dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand. The exchange rate moved toward **91.04 against the USD**, reflecting the broader exit from emerging market assets. Market volatility spiked significantly during the session. The **India VIX surged over 10%** to reach **13.46**, indicating heightened investor anxiety and expectations of further short-term turbulence. Nearly every sector ended the day in the red. Banking, metal, and auto stocks were among the hardest hit, with the **Nifty Bank** index dropping **1.32%** to close at **60,739.55**. Outlook and Investor Sentiment Despite the sharp one-day crash, some resilience was noted earlier in the week due to consistent domestic institutional inflows. However, the current environment is dominated by a "sell-on-rallies" sentiment. Investors are now closely monitoring the **10-day deadline** mentioned by US leadership regarding nuclear negotiations. Further escalation in the Middle East is expected to keep the **war premium** on oil high, maintaining pressure on Indian fiscal stability and corporate margins.
Brent crude reaches six-month high amid discussions of potential geopolitical risk premium
Brent crude prices have reclaimed the **$70** threshold, currently trading near **$70.52** per barrel as of February 19, 2026. This surge marks a significant shift in market sentiment, driven by a "war premium" that has seen prices jump over **4%** in recent sessions. The primary catalyst is the intensifying friction between the U.S. and Iran. While diplomatic talks continue in Geneva, markets are on edge following reports of a potential U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Strategic analysts have raised the probability of a substantial supply disruption to **30%**, citing risks of a conflict that could last for weeks rather than days. A major focus remains the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly **20%** of the worldâs daily oil consumption passes. Iranâs recent military drills in the area and U.S. maritime advisories for ships to avoid Iranian waters have heightened fears of a closure. Any sustained blockage would severely impact global flows, particularly to Asian markets. This geopolitical volatility is currently outweighing structural oversupply concerns. Global inventories grew by **477 million barrels** in 2025, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) still forecasts a supply increase of **2.4 million barrels per day** for 2026. Despite this looming surplus, the immediate threat to Middle Eastern production is keeping a firm floor under prices. OPEC+ is also playing a decisive role. Eight key member nations have paused production increases through the first quarter of 2026 to manage the emerging global glut. However, signals suggest the group may resume output hikes starting in April to meet peak summer demand, which could introduce new downward pressure if tensions ease. In the West, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to add a layer of underlying risk. While talks are ongoing, approximately **140 million barrels** of Russian crude remain at sea, and recent drone strikes on Black Sea infrastructure have kept traders cautious about regional stability. Market participants are now watching for a decisive break above resistance levels. While some agencies like the EIA project an average price of **$58** for the full year 2026, the current geopolitical climate suggests that as long as the threat of a strike looms, Brent is likely to maintain its premium above the **$70** mark.
US Single-Family Housing Starts and Building Permits: January Data
U.S. Housing Construction Brief U.S. single-family homebuilding activity saw a notable rebound at the close of last year. Housing starts for single-family units rose **4.1%** in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of **981,000** units. This growth followed a strong November, marking a recovery from earlier autumn lows. Total housing starts, including multifamily projects, jumped **6.2%** in December to an annual rate of **1.404 million**. This exceeded market expectations of **1.33 million**, driven largely by an **11.3%** surge in the multifamily sector. Despite this late-year rally, total starts for the full year 2025 remained **0.6%** lower than the previous year. Leading Indicators and Future Outlook While construction activity increased, forward-looking data suggests a cautious outlook. Building permits for single-family homesâa key indicator of future supplyâslipped **1.7%** in December to a rate of **881,000** units. Total permits across all sectors rose **4.3%** to **1.448 million**, but this was primarily fueled by a **15.2%** spike in apartment and condo authorizations. The persistent decline in single-family permits indicates that builders remain hesitant to break new ground on individual homes heading into the spring season. Builder Sentiment and Market Pressures Homebuilder confidence has hit its lowest level in five months. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to **36** in February 2026, missing the forecast of **38**. Sentiment is weighed down by high material costs, labor shortages, and a significant drop in prospective buyer traffic. Builders are increasingly turning to incentives to move inventory. Approximately **36%** of builders reported cutting prices in February, while **65%** utilized sales incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns. Financing and Affordability Constraints Mortgage rates continue to act as a primary barrier to market expansion. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently hovering around **6.1%**. While this is an improvement from the **6.86%** seen a year ago, it remains high enough to keep many potential buyers on the sidelines. Affordability is further strained by rising construction expenses. Tariffs on imported materials like lumber and cabinetry, combined with a shortage of approximately **300,000** workers in the construction sector, have kept new home prices elevated. The median new home price has seen downward pressure from builder discounts, yet the "lock-in effect" persists. With **80%** of current mortgage holders locked into rates below **6%**, existing inventory remains tight, forcing the market to rely heavily on new construction that is increasingly expensive to deliver.
Japan 20-Year Bond Auction Sees Steady Demand in First Post-Election Sale
The Japanese government bond (JGB) market has entered a period of relative stabilization following a month of historic volatility. As of mid-February 2026, the 20-year JGB yield is hovering near **2.97%**, pulling back from an almost three-decade peak of **3.46%** reached in late January. This cooling follows a period of intense selling triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichiâs pledge to suspend the **8%** consumption tax on food for two years. While the initial announcement sparked fears of deficit-financed spending, the ruling coalition's landslide election victory on February 8 has provided the political mandate necessary to pursue a more "responsible" stimulus package. Market participants have taken comfort in recent government communications suggesting the tax cuts will be funded without significantly increasing the issuance of deficit-financing bonds. This shift in tone has eased the "mini-Takaichi shock" that saw 40-year yields briefly breach the **4.0%** threshold last month. A recent auction of 20-year bonds showed stable, albeit moderate, demand. While the bid-to-cover ratio remains below historical averages, the presence of foreign investors and domestic life insurers has prevented a further spike in yields. Foreign demand is particularly focused on hedged bonds, which now offer more attractive returns compared to earlier in the year. The Ministry of Finance is also supporting the super-long end of the curve by reducing issuance volumes. The plan for fiscal year 2026 includes a reduction in super-long bond issuance by approximately **100 billion yen** per month, a move designed to address the structural demand gap in the **20- to 40-year** sector. Monetary policy remains a secondary but critical factor. The Bank of Japan maintains its policy rate at **0.75%**, with market expectations leaning toward a potential hike to **1.0%** or **1.25%** by late 2026. Governor Kazuo Ueda has reassured markets that fiscal policy will not obstruct the bank's path toward normalization. The 10-year yield is currently trading near a six-week low of **2.14%**, reflecting a broader trend of "unclenching" across the JGB curve. Despite this calm, a "duration gap" persists among domestic insurers, who remain cautious as they wait for higher entry points, suggesting that while the immediate crisis has passed, the long-term yield floor has moved significantly higher than in previous years.