Bearish News
Collection
Ola Electric Shares Rise 5% Following Four-Session Decline
Ola Electric Mobility shares experienced a notable shift in momentum following a legal reprieve for its leadership. The Bombay High Court at Goa has stayed an arrest warrant issued against CEO Bhavish Aggarwal by a consumer disputes commission. This judicial intervention halted a four-session losing streak, providing a temporary floor for a stock that has faced intense selling pressure. Despite the legal breather, the companyās market performance remains under significant duress. The stock recently touched an all-time low of **ā¹27.36** on the BSE, representing an **82%** collapse from its peak of **ā¹157.40** reached in August 2024. Market capitalization has eroded to approximately **ā¹12,716 crore** as the scrip continues to trade well below its IPO price of **ā¹76**. Financial results for the quarter ended December 2025 highlight a period of aggressive "structural reset." While net loss narrowed to **ā¹487 crore** from **ā¹564 crore** in the previous year, revenue from operations plummeted by **55%** to **ā¹470 crore**. This sharp decline is attributed to a massive drop in deliveries, which fell to **32,680 units** compared to over **84,000 units** in the same period last year. The company is currently executing a lean operating model to lower its break-even point. Recent strategic moves include reducing the retail store count from over **4,000** to approximately **700** and slashing quarterly operating expenditure to **ā¹484 crore**. Management aims to further reduce this spend to a steady state of **ā¹250ā300 crore**, which would lower the EBITDA break-even threshold to roughly **15,000 units** per month. Market dynamics show Ola Electric losing ground to both legacy manufacturers and agile competitors. In the two-wheeler segment, the company has slipped to the fifth position in recent rankings, with players like Ampere and legacy giants TVS and Bajaj gaining traction. Analysts have flagged persistent headwinds, including sluggish EV penetration growth and service-related challenges that have impacted brand perception. Brokers have responded with caution, with some slashing target prices to as low as **ā¹20** and **ā¹27**, citing concerns over negative cash flows and rising net debt. However, the company maintains that its vertical integration strategy and the upcoming completion of its Gigafactory by March 2026 will provide a long-term cost advantage as the industry stabilizes.
Copper prices decline 20% from peak amid shifting market fundamentals
Copper prices have entered a sharp consolidation phase in February 2026, retreating from record highs established just weeks ago. In global markets, the metal fell to approximately **$5.75 per pound**, a significant drop from the January peak of over **$6.50 per pound**. This **15%** decline is largely attributed to the Lunar New Year holiday in China, which has halted activity in the worldās largest copper-consuming nation. Trading volumes have thinned as major Chinese manufacturing hubs extended shutdowns, some of which began as early as late January and are expected to last through late February. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper futures recently slipped to **$12,780 per tonne**, while domestic prices on Indiaās Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) reached intraday lows of **ā¹1,179 per kg**. Analysts note that this cooling period is intensified by a surge in global exchange inventories, which have climbed toward a 21-year high of over **970,000 tons**. Despite the current price volatility, the long-term outlook remains underpinned by severe structural supply constraints. The transition to renewable energy, the expansion of AI data centers, and massive power grid modernization programs are projected to drive global demand to **28 million tonnes** this year. Market participants are closely monitoring the **$6.00 per pound** level as a critical psychological and technical threshold. While short-term selling pressure persists, many traders view this as a necessary correction rather than a reversal of the multi-year bullish trend. Stabilization is expected to depend on the resumption of Chinese industrial activity in March. Early indicators suggest that Chinese buyers may return aggressively if prices hold below key resistance levels, seeking to replenish depleted stockpiles for the spring construction season.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Ease Following Weekend Gains
**Crypto Market Brief: February 17, 2026** **Bitcoin Consolidates Below Key Resistance** Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range, currently hovering near **$68,355** after a failed attempt to reclaim the psychological **$70,000** level. The asset is undergoing what analysts describe as "orderly deleveraging," with futures open interest dropping significantly. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin holds above critical moving averages, though year-to-date performance signals one of the weakest first quarters since **2018**. **Altcoin Mixed Performance** Ethereum has dipped below the **$2,000** mark, trading around **$1,985** amid net ETF outflows and cooling institutional demand. In contrast, select major altcoins are decoupling with gains. XRP has surged to approximately **$1.47**, and BNB is trading firmly around **$628**. However, the meme coin sector remains under pressure, with Dogecoin sliding to **$0.10**. **Market Sentiment & Key Drivers** The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at **$2.35 trillion**, reflecting a consolidation phase rather than a structural breakdown. **Latest Developments** * **ETF Expansion:** Trump-linked *Truth Social* has reportedly filed for new ETFs tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cronos, potentially injecting new political and institutional narratives into the market. * **Macro Headwinds:** With U.S. inflation sticking at **2.4%** and Federal Reserve rates holding near **3.75%**, risk assets face continued pressure from a "higher for longer" monetary stance. * **Institutional Flows:** While retail speculation has cooled, institutional activity is shifting toward regulated products, though recent days have seen mixed flows for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Traders remain cautious, awaiting the next major catalystālikely from upcoming Federal Reserve minutes or regulatory shiftsāto break the current indecision.
Ola Electric Hits All-Time Low After Citi Cuts Price Target by 51%
Shares of Ola Electric Mobility plunged to a new all-time low of **ā¹27.36** on February 17, 2026, marking a significant collapse from its August 2024 peak of **ā¹157.40**. The stock has shed nearly **19%** of its value in the last month alone, with its market capitalization shrinking to approximately **ā¹12,315 crore**. This downward spiral follows a severe downgrade from Citigroup, which shifted its rating to **Sell** and slashed the price target by **51%** to **ā¹27**. The brokerage cited a "structural reset" in the business, highlighting deeper concerns over slowing electric vehicle (EV) penetration and a narrowing price gap between electric and traditional fuel engines. Market share erosion has become a critical pressure point. Once holding a dominant **35%** share in 2024, Ola Electric saw its market presence more than halve to **15.57%** by the end of 2025. Recent data from early 2026 indicates the share has further slipped toward the **6%** mark as legacy manufacturers like TVS Motor and Bajaj Auto aggressively reclaim the top spots. Financial results for the December quarter (Q3 FY26) underscore the operational strain. Revenue from operations crashed **55%** year-on-year to **ā¹470 crore**, down from **ā¹1,045 crore** in the same period last year. This revenue slump was driven by a sharp drop in sales volume, with quarterly registrations falling to **32,680 units** compared to over **84,000 units** a year ago. Despite the shrinking top line, the company reported a narrowed consolidated net loss of **ā¹487 crore**, an improvement from the **ā¹564 crore** loss recorded in the previous year. Management points to improving gross margins, which reached **34.3%** this quarter, as a sign of vertical integration through its new battery cell technology and leaner operating structures. Concerns remain regarding liquidity and long-term viability. Analysts have flagged persistent negative free cash flows and a high dependence on rapid scaling to reach a break-even point. While the company is betting on its Gigafactory completion by March 2026 to stabilize unit economics, the broader market remains cautious due to ongoing service-related complaints and heightening competition from both startups and established giants. Investor sentiment is further tested by a cooling adoption rate in the two-wheeler segment. Regulatory shifts and tax adjustments have improved the affordability of internal combustion engine vehicles, making the transition to electric slower than early industry forecasts suggested. The stock currently trades nearly **64%** below its initial public offering price of **ā¹76**.
ITC Share Price Performance: Stock Declines during Market Session
Global Market Brief: February 2026 The global economy enters mid-February 2026 showing a projected growth rate of **3.3%**. Despite this resilience, a "divergence" theme is taking hold. While the U.S. labor market remains stable with unemployment falling to **4.4%**, trade policy shifts and uneven tariffs are beginning to reshape export competitiveness globally. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates The U.S. Federal Reserve has adopted a hawkish pause to start the year. The target interest rate range remains at **3.50% to 3.75%** following three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows year-over-year inflation at **2.7%**. While this is an improvement, it remains above the Fed's **2%** target. Markets currently price in low odds for a cut in March, with most analysts expecting only one to two additional reductions totaling **50 basis points** by the end of 2026. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity-index futures are showing signs of risk aversion. S&P 500 futures fell **0.3%** and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped **0.6%** ahead of the Tuesday session. This follows a period of volatility where investors have begun rotating capital away from software companies at risk of AI-driven "cannibalization." In contrast, semiconductor hardware remains a primary growth engine. The global chip market is projected to reach **$975 billion** in 2026, a **25%** year-on-year increase. High-performance logic and memory chips are leading this surge, with some hardware giants reporting record gross margins near **49.1%**. Energy and Commodities Energy markets are currently dominated by a supply-demand imbalance. Brent crude futures are trading near **$67.75** per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sits around **$62.89**. Analysts expect oil prices to decline toward an average of **$58** per barrel for the full year 2026 as global production from non-OPEC+ sourcesāspecifically Brazil, Guyana, and Argentinaāoutpaces demand growth. However, a geopolitical risk premium of **$5 to $7** remains embedded in prices due to tensions in the Persian Gulf. Gold has seen a recent pullback after a sharp rally. Comex gold futures are trading at approximately **$5,021.99** per ounce. The metal is caught between a firmer U.S. dollar, which exerts downward pressure, and continued geopolitical uncertainty, which provides a floor for prices. Key Economic Indicators * Global Projected GDP Growth: **3.3%** * U.S. Federal Funds Rate: **3.50% - 3.75%** * U.S. Unemployment Rate: **4.4%** * S&P 500 Index Level: **~6,836** * Spot Gold: **~$5,021/oz** * Brent Crude: **~$68/bbl** Trade dynamics are notably shifting. New tariff structures have made certain imports, like South African wine, **17%** more expensive relative to 2024, while others, such as Italian rice, have become **12%** cheaper. This uneven trade landscape is forcing a massive reallocation of market shares across global value chains.
HCL Tech Share Price: Monthly Performance Analysis
Lithium Market Intelligence: February 2026 Update The global lithium market has entered a period of sharp recalibration. After a blistering January that saw prices for battery-grade material jump nearly **46%**, the first half of February 2026 is witnessing a strategic consolidation. Lithium carbonate prices in the U.S. and Asian markets have eased by approximately **1.5%** as procurement teams pause to assess the rapid gains of the previous month. Market dynamics are currently defined by "front-loading" behavior. Manufacturers are aggressively securing inventory ahead of major policy shifts, specifically the reduction of VAT export rebates in China effective April 2026. This has created a surge in spot demand, driving lithium carbonate to trade in a core range between **$18,000** and **$25,000** per metric ton, while lithium hydroxide maintains a premium at **$20,000** to **$28,000**. Demand Transformation A structural shift in demand is now evident. While electric vehicles remain the largest consumer, accounting for roughly **75%** of the battery market, utility-scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) have emerged as the fastest-growing sector. Global BESS shipments are projected to grow by over **50%** this year, providing a new "price floor" that prevents the market from returning to the lows of 2024. Supply and Production Outlook Global output is expected to exceed **1 million** metric tons in 2026, yet the market remains in a "tight balance." Major producers are exercising capital discipline; for instance, Albemarle recently reported **$1.4 billion** in quarterly sales but has prioritized productivity over expensive new expansions. The geographic landscape is also shifting. While Australia and Chile remain dominant, the U.S. is rapidly scaling its domestic footprint, targeting **15%** of global supply by the end of this yearāa significant leap from just **1%** in 2020. Major oil players have also pivoted, with companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron accelerating brine extraction projects in the Smackover Formation. Forecast and Risk Analysts at major institutions, including Morgan Stanley and UBS, are forecasting a market deficit ranging from **22,000** to **80,000** metric tons for the full year 2026. This anticipated shortage is likely to drive a secondary price rally in the second half of the year. Volatility remains a key risk factor. Regulatory uncertainties in China and potential trade policy changes in the U.S. continue to weigh on sentiment. Investors and OEMs are increasingly moving toward multi-year pricing frameworks to hedge against these fluctuations as lithium transitions from a speculative commodity to a critical strategic asset.
Short-Term JGB Yields Decline Following Economic Data and Revised Rate Expectations
Japanese government bond (JGB) yields edged lower on Monday, February 16, 2026, as investors reacted to underwhelming fourth-quarter growth data. The preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of only 0.2 percent. This figure fell significantly short of the 1.48 percent growth forecast by market analysts. While the result marks a return to growth after two consecutive quarters of contraction, the marginal pace suggests a fragile recovery rather than a robust rebound. The weak GDP print has immediate implications for monetary policy. Short-term bond yields declined as traders scaled back expectations for an aggressive interest rate hike in the second quarter. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) currently maintains its policy rate at 0.75 percent, a 30-year high following the December 2025 increase. Market participants are now reassessing the likelihood of an April hike. Many analysts believe the central bank may wait until June or July to act, pending more definitive results from the 2026 spring wage negotiations. Consumer spending, which makes up over half of the Japanese economy, grew by a slim 0.1 percent. This persistent weakness in private consumption continues to complicate the central bank's goal of achieving sustainable 2 percent inflation. External pressures are also weighing on the outlook. Exports fell by 0.3 percent in the final quarter of 2025. This decline was partially attributed to the impact of U.S. tariffs on automobile shipments and a notable drop in tourism arrivals. In the currency markets, the Japanese yen weakened following the data release, trading near the 153.25 level against the U.S. dollar. The currency remains volatile as it balances local economic misses against the narrowing interest rate differential with the United States. Fixed-income investors are closely monitoring the 10-year JGB yield, which has faced upward pressure from fiscal concerns under the administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Despite the current dip in short-term yields, long-term projections suggest the 10-year yield could reach 2.3 percent by the end of 2026 if fiscal expansion continues. The upcoming January trade data and spring labor-management talks will serve as the next critical catalysts for the bond market. For now, the soft GDP figures have provided a temporary reprieve for short-term yields, forcing a more cautious "wait-and-see" approach from the BoJ.
Crude Oil Prices Stabilize Before US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations
Crude oil prices have maintained a steady position as of Monday, February 16, 2026. This stability follows a period of volatility where benchmarks recorded their first consecutive weekly declines of the year. Market participants are currently balancing persistent geopolitical friction against a projected global supply surplus. **Benchmark Performance** West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently trading near **$62.85** per barrel. This marks a significant consolidation after falling from the **$65** level seen earlier in the month. Brent crude is hovering around **$67.70** per barrel. While prices touched highs near **$70** in January due to supply concerns, they have since moderated as immediate fears of military escalation eased. **Geopolitical Landscape** Washington and Tehran are entering a critical phase of diplomatic engagement. Indirect talks in Oman have signaled a preference for a negotiated settlement over military action, which has stripped some of the "war premium" from current pricing. Despite the focus on diplomacy, the regional environment remains tense. The United States has recently deployed a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, maintaining a visible military presence. Analysts suggest that a sustained break above **$66** for WTI would require a fresh escalation, while continued de-escalation could see prices retreat toward the **$60** mark. **OPEC+ Strategy** The OPEC+ alliance is actively debating a production increase scheduled for April. Key members, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are looking to recover market share and accommodate anticipated summer demand. A formal decision is expected at the upcoming meeting on March 1. Some members argue that current fears of oversupply are exaggerated, while others remain cautious due to a massive global inventory build. Reports indicate that global stocks grew by **477 million** barrels in 2025āthe fastest pace since the 2020 pandemic. **Demand and Supply Outlook** The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2026 demand growth forecast downward to **850,000** barrels per day. Economic uncertainty and higher price points earlier in the year have weighed on consumption prospects. Global oil supply is projected to rise by **2.4 million** barrels per day in 2026. This growth is expected to be evenly split between OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. With supply significantly outpacing demand, the market is facing a potential surplus of **3.7 million** barrels per day for the year, which continues to act as a ceiling for price rallies.
**Short-Term Yields Decrease Amid Surplus Liquidity**
Bond yields are currently undergoing a significant structural shift as markets transition into a new phase of the economic cycle. Short-term rates are trending lower, with 2-year Treasury yields recently touching 3.40%, their lowest level since 2022. This movement is largely driven by expectations of final easing measures and ample system liquidity. In contrast, long-term rates are moving in the opposite direction. The 10-year Treasury yield has recently climbed back toward 4.04%, while the 30-year yield remains elevated due to rising term premia. This divergence has pushed the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year notes to approximately 70 basis points, the widest gap in four years. This steepening of the yield curve signals that the era of aggressive rate cuts is likely nearing its conclusion. Central banks are shifting to a "neutral" stance, with the Federal Reserve expected to target a terminal rate between 3.0% and 3.5%. The market is now pricing in a "Goldilocks" scenario of resilient growth and stabilizing inflation, which reduces the immediate need for further monetary stimulus. Institutional investors are responding to this environment by shifting their strategies. Many are locking in long-term funding now to hedge against future volatility and potential rate increases. This institutional demand is focused on intermediate-term durations, typically between 5 and 7 years, to balance the benefits of current yields against the risks of rising long-term rates. Fiscal factors are also playing a primary role in the upward pressure on long-term yields. Massive government issuance and the financing costs of federal deficits are keeping the "long end" of the curve high. Investors are demanding a higher premium for holding long-dated debt, reflecting concerns over sticky inflation and the long-term supply of government bonds. The current market landscape is characterized by high-quality credit resilience. While corporate spreads remain historically tight, the divergence in yields suggests that liquidity is concentrated in shorter maturities while the broader market prepares for a "higher for longer" reality in the years ahead. This shift marks a definitive move away from the emergency policy settings of previous years toward a more traditional, upward-sloping yield environment.
Analysis of Current Commodity Market Correction and Duration Trends
Geopolitical risks remain the primary driver of market uncertainty as we move through early 2026. The World Economic Forumās latest assessment identifies geoeconomic confrontation as the top global risk for the year, surpassing even traditional armed conflict. This reflects a "new age of competition" where trade wars, sanctions, and the weaponization of supply chains are the main tools of international pressure. Global risk indicators remain at historically high levels. Approximately **90%** of experts anticipate either a "turbulent" or "unsettled" global outlook over the next two years. Geoeconomic friction has climbed eight positions in risk rankings, with **18%** of analysts viewing it as the most likely trigger for a systemic crisis in 2026. Commodity markets are caught in the crossfire of these tensions. While some spot prices have stabilized, volatility remains a defining feature. Brent crude oil is projected to face an oversupplied market, yet prices maintain a geopolitical risk premium due to ongoing conflicts. Conversely, gold continues its record-breaking trajectory, fueled by central bank purchases averaging **70 tonnes** per month. Sector performance is increasingly split. Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to outperform as the race for AI dominance and energy transition infrastructure intensifies. Copper prices are forecast to average **$11,400** per tonne in 2026, driven by supply deficits and strategic stockpiling. Meanwhile, the "LNG supply wave" is expected to surge by over **50%** through 2030, potentially reshuffling global energy dependencies. Economic indicators suggest a cooling but resilient global landscape. Global GDP growth is projected to hold steady at approximately **2.9%** for 2026. However, persistent inflationāending last year at **2.9%** in the USāhas stalled progress toward central bank targets. This stickiness, combined with "aggressive" tariff policies, has pushed the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to all-time highs. Investors are navigating an environment where macro headlines often overshadow market fundamentals. The risk of "stagflationary shocks" remains a concern, particularly if trade restrictions intensify. As major powers secure spheres of interest, the cost of global trade is rising, ensuring that even if prices take a temporary breather, the underlying market tension is far from over.
Thirteen Penny Stocks Record Monthly Declines of up to 55%
Penny Stock Market Alert: Significant Volatility Market analysis for mid-February 2026 indicates a sharp divergence in the micro-cap sector. While major indices like the **S&P 500** and **Dow Jones** are nearing record highs, a group of 13 specific penny stocks has faced severe selling pressure. Losses for these underperformers range from **15% to 55%** over the last 30 days. This trend highlights the fragility of companies with low market capitalization during periods of rapid sector rotation. Sector Performance & Decliners The most significant declines are concentrated in high-speculation sectors, including **Biotechnology**, **Cryptocurrency Mining**, and **Clean Energy**. * **FutureFuel Corp.** reported a net loss of **$37.39 million** for the recent nine-month period, contributing to a price decline that has left it trading at nearly half its estimated fair value. * **Caribou Biosciences** faces liquidity hurdles with less than **12 months** of cash runway remaining, leading to heightened investor caution. * **Aclaris Therapeutics** has seen its weekly volatility spike from **14% to 22%**, reflecting the broader instability in clinical-stage assets. Global Trends and Risks In international markets, the "penny stock" segment remains a high-stakes environment. In India, several stocks have crashed by up to **80%** over the last quarter, driven by rising input costs and tighter credit conditions. Global investors are increasingly prioritizing "Zero Debt" or "Debt-Free" balance sheets to mitigate risk. Companies without clear paths to profitability are being discarded as interest rates and regulatory scrutiny remain high. Key Risk Factors for February 2026 * **Liquidity Traps:** Many of these 13 decliners suffer from low trading volume, making it difficult for investors to exit positions without further driving down the price. * **Manipulation:** Small-cap stocks remain susceptible to "pump and dump" schemes and sudden negative announcements that can wipe out **30% or more** of value in a single session. * **Funding Gaps:** With AI-related infrastructure soaking up over **$3 trillion** in projected capital, smaller firms are finding it harder to secure affordable financing. Investors are currently shifting focus toward "turnaround stories" with tangible assets, such as those in **Renewable Energy** or **Infrastructure**, while avoiding pre-revenue entities that lack at least **two years** of cash runway.
Bitcoin Traders Identify $60,000 as Key Liquidation Level
**Bitcoin Market Pulse: The $60,000 Fault Line** Bitcoin is currently navigating a period of intense structural stress, trading near a decisive psychological and technical threshold. As of **February 14, 2026**, the market is characterized by "Extreme Fear," with sentiment indices bottoming out at a rare score of **9/100**. The focus remains fixed on the **$60,000** mark. This level serves as more than just a support line; it is a "tripwire" for broader financial contagion. A sustained break below this point is expected to ignite a sharp spike in volatility, moving the market from a standard correction into a potential liquidity crisis. **Liquidation Clusters and Leverage Risks** The risk is compounded by roughly **$1.24 billion** in open interest on Bitcoin put options at the **$60,000** strike price. As prices approach this level, options dealers may be forced to "delta-hedge" by selling Bitcoin or futures contracts, creating a feedback loop of downward pressure. Furthermore, Bitcoin-backed loans are nearing critical liquidation prices. If the market slides further, automated margin calls will trigger forced selling across decentralized and centralized platforms. This mechanical unwinding of leverage often leads to price "cascades" where selling begets more selling, independent of fundamental value. **Macro Pressures and Institutional Shifts** External economic factors are currently acting as a drag on digital assets. Recent U.S. inflation data, with Headline CPI at **2.4%**, has tempered expectations for immediate interest rate cuts. This "risk-off" environment has seen investors pivot toward safer assets, leaving Bitcoin to correlate more closely with struggling technology stocks. Institutional behavior has shifted from the aggressive accumulation seen in late 2025 to a more cautious stance. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded billions in net outflows over recent weeks, signaling a depletion of the capital that previously fueled the bull market. **Technical Outlook and Support Zones** If the **$60,000** support fails to hold, analysts point to the 200-week Moving Average near **$58,000** as the next relevant defensive barrier. A breach there could open the door for a deeper retracement toward **$50,000**, where significant buyer interest is expected to re-emerge. Market activity reflects this uncertainty, with daily active addresses dropping toward **750,000**, down from previous highs above **900,000**. This reduction in network dynamism suggests a "wait-and-see" approach among retail and professional traders alike, as they gauge whether this level will hold as a floor or collapse into a deeper "crypto winter" phase.
January Inflation Data Aligns With Potential Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
U.S. inflation cooled more than expected in January 2026, reaching its lowest annual level since mid-2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose **2.4%** year-over-year, coming in below the **2.5%** forecast and down from the **2.7%** recorded in December. On a monthly basis, prices edged up **0.2%**, trailing the **0.3%** increase seen in the previous month. This deceleration was largely driven by a sharp drop in energy costs. Gasoline prices plunged **3.2%** in January alone, contributing to a broader **1.5%** decline in the energy index. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy sectors, remained stable but firm. The annual core rate slowed to **2.5%**, while the monthly core figure rose **0.3%**. Service-side inflation, particularly in shelter and airline fares, continues to present a hurdle. Shelter costs rose **0.2%** for the month, while airline tickets surged **6.5%**. The cooling data has shifted market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Interest rate futures now price in a nearly **70%** probability of a rate cut in June, up from **64%** prior to the report. Analysts anticipate the Fed will likely maintain the current target range of **3.5% to 3.75%** through March while monitoring the labor market. Market reactions were immediate. Treasury yields fell as investors pivoted toward safety, with the **10-year note** finishing at **4.04%**āits lowest mark since November. The **2-year note** yield dropped to **3.40%**, hitting a level not seen since 2022. Equities experienced a sharp sell-off despite the positive inflation news. The **S&P 500** fell **1.6%** to **6,832.76**, and the **Nasdaq** dropped **2.0%** to **22,597.15**. This downturn was fueled by shifting sentiment around sector-specific profitability and volatility in the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks. The labor market remains a critical secondary indicator. While January payrolls showed a resilient addition of **130,000** jobs, the unemployment rate held at **4.4%**. The Federal Reserve continues to balance these figures against a fiscal deficit projected to reach **$1.9 trillion** this year. Economic momentum is expected to fluctuate as the effects of 2025 trade policies and tariffs continue to filter through the supply chain. While headline inflation is moving toward the **2%** target, persistent service costs suggest that the path to aggressive rate cuts remains a cautious one for central bankers.
Infosys and Wipro ADRs Rise Despite Weak Wall Street Trade
Market dynamics for Indian IT giants shifted significantly on February 13, 2026, as US economic data and global technology trends intersected. ADR Resilience Amid US Inflation Shift Infosys and Wipro American Depository Receipts (ADRs) displayed unexpected resilience despite a volatile session on the Nasdaq. This movement coincided with the release of the January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed inflation cooling to **2.4%** on an annual basis. This figure came in lower than the **2.5%** expected by analysts, marking the slowest pace of price growth since mid-2025. The core inflation rate also eased to **2.5%**, fueling market speculation that the Federal Reserve may pivot toward rate cuts by June 2026. Domestic IT Sector Correction In contrast to the offshore ADR performance, the domestic Nifty IT index experienced a sharp correction. On February 13, the index plummeted over **5%** intraday, with heavyweights hitting fresh 52-week lows. Infosys shares dropped as much as **7.5%** to approximately **1,281.50**, while Wipro touched a low of **209.15**. This domestic sell-off was intensified by broader fears that traditional outsourcing models are facing structural revenue erosion from rapid advancements in generative AI. Employment and AI Disruptions Stronger-than-expected US employment figures have created a complex backdrop for the sector. January jobs data showed a robust labor market with unemployment at **4.3%**, suggesting that while inflation is cooling, the economy remains strong enough to delay aggressive monetary easing. Simultaneously, the sector is grappling with "AI deflation" risks. Industry analysts estimate that **9% to 12%** of traditional IT services revenue could be at risk over the next three to four years as clients utilize AI to automate routine coding, testing, and maintenance tasks. Market Performance Summary The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite felt the heat of a broader tech sell-off, tumbling **2%** to close at **22,597.15** points. While the cooling CPI provided a momentary lift to sentiment, the high CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at **20.82** signals continued caution. Investors are currently weighing the benefits of potential lower interest rates against the long-term threat of AI-driven disruption to headcount-based revenue models. Foreign investors have responded by offloading an estimated **$8.5 billion** in Indian IT stocks over the past year.
US Stock Market Sectors Experience Broad AI-Driven Volatility
Market Brief: The AI Disruption Scare Wall Street is currently navigating a period of intense volatility as a "scare trade" regarding artificial intelligence (AI) shifts from optimism to widespread disruption fears. The sentiment has evolved from viewing AI as a universal growth engine to identifying it as a primary threat to established business models. The sell-off initially hit the software sector with significant force. The S&P North American Technology Software Index has tumbled 19% since the start of the year, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has plunged 31% from its peak, officially entering bear market territory. Market panic deepened this week following the release of advanced "agentic" AI models capable of automating complex professional workflows. Investors are aggressively offloading shares in companies perceived as vulnerable to these autonomous tools, leading to a "sell first, think later" mentality across trading floors. Sectoral Impact and Key Losses: Software & IT: The software/IT sector has seen a sharp repricing. Loan prices in the syndicated market fell nearly 465 basis points in just one month, reaching an average bid of 90.4 on February 6, 2026. Infrastructure & Networking: Cisco Systems saw its shares plummet 12% after providing disappointing guidance, which many analysts interpreted as a sign of shifting enterprise spending cycles away from legacy hardware. Transportation & Logistics: The Dow Jones Transport Average sank 4% in a single session. Logistics leader C.H. Robinson plunged 14% on fears that AI-driven automation will compress margins and displace traditional freight brokerage services. Financial Services: Major firms including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs saw declines between 3% and 5%. The market is actively debating how AI-driven wealth management platforms might erode traditional advisory revenue streams. Real Estate & Tech-Services: Concerns regarding AI-induced job losses have spilled into real estate, with CBRE falling 9%. High-valuation marketing platforms like AppLovin have also been hit hard, tumbling nearly 20% amid intense competitive pressure. Despite the rout in "AI losers," the infrastructure race continues at a record pace. The top five U.S. hyperscalersāAmazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracleāhave committed to a staggering $690 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. This represents a near-doubling of investment from 2025 levels. While pure-play AI vendors like OpenAI have reached an annual recurring revenue of $20 billion, this remains a fraction of the capital being deployed. This widening gap between massive spending and actual monetization is contributing to a "prove it" year for the technology. Investors are currently rotating capital into defensive havens to hedge against further volatility. Retail giants like Walmart and consumer staple stocks like Coca-Cola have bucked the downward trend, gaining ground as traders reposition for a more cautious economic landscape.
Rising Yields Prompt Indian Bond Traders to Seek Buybacks Amid Debt Switch Performance
The Indian government bond market is navigating a complex period of transition as participants weigh the impact of recent debt management operations against long-term borrowing pressures. Market yields recently retreated from near one-year highs following a significant debt switch conducted by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In this operation, the government bought back securities worth **755.04 billion rupees** maturing in the 2026-27 fiscal year, issuing longer-dated **2040 bonds** totaling **694.36 billion rupees** in exchange. The move was designed to ease immediate redemption pressures. However, the initial gains in bond prices have proven fragile. The benchmark 10-year bond yield currently hovers around **6.67%**, having hit a three-week low on February 13, 2026. While the debt switch provided temporary relief, traders remain cautious as the government prepares for a record gross borrowing target of **17.2 trillion rupees** for the upcoming 2026-27 fiscal year. Liquidity remains a primary concern for the market. While system liquidity has stayed in a surplus of approximately **70,000 crore rupees**, participants argue that further central bank support is necessary to cool yields permanently. Specifically, there is high demand for more frequent buyback auctions or Open Market Operation (OMO) purchases to absorb the heavy supply of state and central government debt. Economic indicators are adding to the cautious sentiment. January inflation returned to the RBI's target band at **2.75%**, slightly higher than some market expectations. This uptick, combined with the RBI maintaining its "neutral" stance and holding the repo rate at **5.25%** in its February meeting, suggests that interest rate cuts are not imminent. Additional pressure is stemming from the state development loan (SDL) segment. Indian states recently conducted their largest weekly auction of the fiscal year, raising **486 billion rupees**. This massive supply has kept the 10-year yield from breaking below the **6.65%** resistance level. Market participants are now looking for a clearer roadmap on further buybacks. Without consistent intervention to manage the supply-demand mismatch, many analysts expect yields to remain sticky at current levels, despite the successful execution of the recent debt switch.
Indian IT Sector Loses Rs 4.5 Lakh Crore Over Seven Days Amid AI-Driven Industry Shifts
The Indian software services landscape is grappling with a severe structural downturn as of February 13, 2026. A massive sell-off, catalyzed by rapid advancements in autonomous AI agents, has triggered a significant valuation reset across the sector. On February 12, the **Nifty IT Index plummeted 5.51%**, closing at **33,160.20**. This single-session crash wiped out approximately **$52 billion** in market capitalization. The index has now slid more than **12.16% since the start of 2026**, reflecting deep-seated investor anxiety. Market Dynamics and Weightage The sector's dominance in the national benchmark is fading. The IT sectorās weightage in the Nifty 50 has contracted to **9.2%**, down from **10.8%** earlier this month. This shift has seen the Information Technology segment lose its long-held second-place position to the Oil & Gas sector, which now stands at **10.1%**. Stock Performance and ADR Trends The decline is broad-based across industry giants. **TCS** shares hit a 52-week low of **ā¹2,776**, while **Infosys** and **Wipro** faced intense pressure. Overnight trading of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) signaled further pain, with **Infosys ADRs tanking nearly 10%** on the New York Stock Exchange. Other major players including **HCL Technologies**, **Tech Mahindra**, and **LTIMindtree** recorded losses between **4% and 6%**. The AI Disruption Factor The primary trigger for this "valuation reset" is the emergence of highly specialized AI tools, such as Anthropicās latest professional automation suite. Unlike previous technology cycles like cloud migration, which created new work streams, AI is perceived as a deflationary threat to the labor-driven outsourcing model. Industry analysts warn that AI could automate up to **40% of traditional revenue streams** in coding, maintenance, and testing. Emerging tools are now capable of completing complex tasksāsuch as SAP migrations or legal contract reviewsāin weeks rather than the years typically billed by IT firms. Sector Outlook While the industry body Nasscom has labeled fears of a total bypass as "misplaced," the market remains in a risk-off mode. Investors are transitioning from a period of experimental hype to a "Year of Truth," demanding proof of how these firms will monetize AI to offset the loss of traditional man-hour billing. The coming trading sessions are critical. The Nifty IT Index is currently testing multi-month lows, and a failure to hold these technical levels could invite further volatility. The sector is now forced to pivot toward an asset-led model, focusing on AI governance and enterprise integration to survive the shifting tech landscape.
Indian Bond Prices Expected to Increase Following Debt Switch Strategy
Indian government bonds are navigating a period of recalibration following the Union Budget 2026 and recent shifts in the central bankās management strategy. The market is currently balancing a record-high borrowing plan against a favorable inflation cooling and strategic debt operations. **Debt Management and Yield Trends** The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is actively managing redemption pressures through debt switch operations. This maneuver involves exchanging short-term maturing securities for longer-dated bonds to smooth out the repayment profile and lower immediate gross borrowing needs. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield has recently hovered around **6.71% to 6.73%**. While yields touched a one-year high of **6.78%** in early February due to supply concerns, they have since stabilized. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders assess the government's ability to absorb the upcoming supply. **Budgetary Impact and Borrowing Targets** The Union Budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year set a record gross market borrowing target of **ā¹17.2 trillion**. This figure exceeded initial market expectations of **ā¹16.5 trillion**, creating temporary upward pressure on yields. Net market borrowing is estimated at **ā¹11.7 trillion**. Despite the high volume, the government is maintaining fiscal discipline, with the fiscal deficit target narrowed to **4.3%** of GDP for the upcoming year, down from the **4.4%** revised estimate for the current period. **Inflation Hits New Lows** A significant tailwind for the bond market is the sharp drop in retail inflation. Indiaās Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to **2.75%** in January 2026, marking the first reading under the newly revised 2024 base series. This print is well within the RBIās medium-term target of **4%** and comfortably below the upper tolerance band of **6%**. The new CPI series has reduced the weight of food and beverages to **36.8%** from the previous **45.9%**. This structural change is expected to lower headline volatility, as the food segmentāhistorically the most unstableānow has a smaller impact on the overall index. **Liquidity and Market Outlook** Liquidity conditions in the banking system are currently steady, supported by previous RBI interventions. The central bank recently injected substantial liquidity, including bond purchases worth **ā¹6.50 trillion** over the past year and significant foreign exchange swaps. The inclusion of Indian debt in global bond indices continues to support long-term foreign capital inflows. While the immediate focus remains on heavy state-level bond auctionsāwith states recently raising **ā¹486 billion** in a single weekāthe combination of low inflation and disciplined fiscal targets provides a stable foundation for the domestic debt market. [India Bond Yield Analysis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF-hXxjFuVs) This video provides an expert breakdown of the recent Union Budget fiscal math and explains why bond yields remain elevated despite broader economic stabilization. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0
**Oil Prices Face Weekly Decline Amid Easing Geopolitical Tensions and Oversupply Concerns**
Global Energy Market Brief: February 13, 2026 Crude oil futures experienced a sharp decline this Friday, heading toward a second consecutive weekly loss. The market is currently balancing a significant supply surplus against lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Price Action and Benchmarks Brent crude futures fell by **$1.88** to settle at **$67.52** per barrel, a drop of **2.71%**. Simultaneously, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined by **$1.79**, or **2.77%**, closing at **$62.84**. Despite a mid-week rally that saw Brent briefly approach the **$70** mark, gains were erased as technical resistance met bearish fundamental data. The weekly trend remains negative, reflecting a broader cooling of the "war premium" that had supported prices earlier in the year. Supply and Demand Outlook The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2026 demand growth forecast downward to **850,000** barrels per day (bpd), citing high prices and economic uncertainty. This stands in contrast to OPECās more optimistic projection of **1.38 million** bpd. Global oil supply is projected to rise by **2.4 million** bpd in 2026. This growth is expected to create a substantial surplus of approximately **3.7 million** bpd, the largest buffer seen since the 2020 pandemic. Inventory and Production Data U.S. commercial crude inventories surged by **8.5 million** barrels last week, reaching a total of **428.8 million** barrels. This was the largest weekly build in over a year and far exceeded analyst expectations of a modest **793,000** barrel increase. Domestic U.S. production has recovered from recent winter disruptions, rising by nearly **500,000** bpd. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production fell by **439,000** bpd in January due to outages in Kazakhstan and Russia, though these volumes are expected to return to the market through February. Geopolitical Factors Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain a focal point for volatility. While initial hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough cooled, recent remarks from President Donald Trump suggesting no definitive agreement has been reached added to the uncertainty. The market continues to monitor the Strait of Hormuz, where a potential disruption could impact the **20 million** barrels of oilāroughly **20%** of global consumptionāthat transit the waterway daily. However, the current inventory overhang provides a significant cushion against localized supply shocks.
India Government Bond Yields Decline Following Inflation Report
Indian government bonds witnessed a shift in sentiment on Thursday, February 12, 2026, as investors reacted to the first set of data released under Indiaās newly revised inflation series. The benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield was last quoted at approximately 6.72%, reflecting a market that is finding its footing after a period of volatility following the Union Budget. A primary driver for the current market action is the January inflation reading, which came in at 2.75%. This figure was slightly higher than some economist projections of 2.4% but notably returned to the Reserve Bank of Indiaās (RBI) target band of 2% to 6%. This print is the first to use the new 2024 base year, which notably reduced the weight of food in the consumer basket to 36.8% from the previous 45.9%. Market participants are currently unwinding short positions as the 2.75% print eased immediate fears of a runaway spike in prices. While food inflation stood at 2.13% and housing at 2.05% under the new metrics, a significant surge in personal care and miscellaneous goodsāwhich reached 19.0%āhas kept traders cautious. The broader backdrop for the bond market remains influenced by the RBIās February 2026 policy decision, where the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. This followed a 25-basis-point cut in December 2025. The central bank has maintained a neutral stance, emphasizing a "wait and watch" approach as it evaluates the impact of previous cuts and the new inflation data series. Supply-side pressures continue to cap a more aggressive rally in bond prices. The governmentās proposed gross market borrowing of 17.2 lakh crore for the upcoming fiscal year has kept yields near eleven-month highs. Additionally, state government bond auctions have been heavy, with states recently raising 486 billion rupeesāthe largest weekly auction of the current financial year. Liquidity in the banking system remains in a surplus of roughly 70,000 crore per day, supported by earlier RBI interventions and open market operations. However, global headwinds, including a rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.18% and a weakening Rupeeāwhich recently hit levels near 91 per dollarāhave limited the domestic marketās ability to sustain lower yields. The 10-year 6.48% 2035 bond, a key focus for long-term investors, has seen its yield settle into a range around 6.72%. While the lower-than-feared inflation print provided a temporary reprieve, the market remains balanced between a benign domestic inflation trajectory and the persistent pressure of high government borrowing needs. [India 10-Year Bond Yield Analysis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z01RGOV-ZNw) This video provides an expert analysis of the latest borrowing impacts and inflation dynamics affecting the Indian debt market. http://googleusercontent.com/youtube_content/0